Epidemic Models for COVID-19 during the First Wave from February to May 2020: a Methodological Review

We review epidemiological models for the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic during the early months of the outbreak: from February to May 2020. The aim is to propose a methodological review that highlights the following characteristics: (i) the epidemic propagation models, (ii) the modeling of intervention strategies, (iii) the models and estimation procedures of the epidemic parameters and (iv) the characteristics of the data used. We finally selected 80 articles from open access databases based on criteria such as the theoretical background, the reproducibility, the incorporation of interventions strategies, etc. It mainly resulted to phenomenological, compartmental and individual-level models. A digital companion including an online sheet, a Kibana interface and a markdown document is proposed. Finally, this work provides an opportunity to witness how the scientific community reacted to this unique situation.

Feature selection and causal analysis for microbiome studies in the presence of confounding using standardization

Background Microbiome studies have uncovered associations between microbes and human, animal, and plant health outcomes. This has led to an interest in developing microbial interventions for treatment of disease and optimization of crop yields which requires identification of microbiome features that impact the outcome in the population of interest. That task is challenging because of the high dimensionality of microbiome data and the confounding that results from the complex and dynamic interactions among host, environment, and microbiome. In the presence of such confounding, variable selection and estimation procedures may have unsatisfactory performance in identifying microbial features with an effect on the outcome. Results In this manuscript, we aim to estimate population-level effects of individual microbiome features while controlling for confounding by a categorical variable. Due to the high dimensionality and confounding-induced correlation between features, we propose feature screening, selection, and estimation conditional on each stratum of the confounder followed by a standardization approach to estimation of population-level effects of individual features. Comprehensive simulation studies demonstrate the advantages of our approach in recovering relevant features. Utilizing a potential-outcomes framework, we outline assumptions required to ascribe causal, rather than associational, interpretations to the identified microbiome effects. We conducted an agricultural study of the rhizosphere microbiome of sorghum in which nitrogen fertilizer application is a confounding variable. In this study, the proposed approach identified microbial taxa that are consistent with biological understanding of potential plant-microbe interactions. Conclusions Standardization enables more accurate identification of individual microbiome features with an effect on the outcome of interest compared to other variable selection and estimation procedures when there is confounding by a categorical variable.

A new adaptive procedure for estimating perceptual thresholds: the effects of observer bias and its correction.

Adaptive threshold estimation procedures sample close to a subject's perceptual threshold by dynamically adapting the stimulation based on the subject's performance. Yet, perceptual thresholds not only depend on the observers' sensory capabilities but also on any bias in terms of their expectations and response preferences, thus distorting the precision of the threshold estimates. Using the framework of signal detection theory (SDT), independent estimates of both, an observer's sensitivity and internal processing bias can be delineated from threshold estimates. While this approach is commonly available for estimation procedures engaging the method of constant stimuli (MCS), correction procedures for adaptive methods (AM) are only scarcely applied. In this article, we introduce a new AM that takes individual biases into account, and that allows for a bias-corrected assessment of subjects' sensitivity. This novel AM is validated with simulations and compared to a typical MCS-procedure, for which the implementation of bias correction has been previously demonstrated. Comparing AM and MCS demonstrates the viability of the presented AM. Besides its feasibility, the results of the simulation reveal both, advantages, and limitations of the proposed AM. The procedure has considerable practical implications, in particular for the design of shaping procedures in sensory training experiments, in which task difficulty has to be constantly adapted to an observer's performance, to improve training efficiency.

Maximum likelihood estimation of an across-regime correlation parameter

In this article, we describe the mlcar command, which implements a maximum likelihood method to simultaneously estimate the regression coefficients of a two-regime endogenous switching model and the coefficient measuring the correlation of outcomes between the two regimes. This coefficient, known as the “across-regime” correlation parameter, is generally unidentified in the traditional estimation procedures.

Evaluation Procedures for Forecasting with Spatiotemporal Data

The increasing use of sensor networks has led to an ever larger number of available spatiotemporal datasets. Forecasting applications using this type of data are frequently motivated by important domains such as environmental monitoring. Being able to properly assess the performance of different forecasting approaches is fundamental to achieve progress. However, traditional performance estimation procedures, such as cross-validation, face challenges due to the implicit dependence between observations in spatiotemporal datasets. In this paper, we empirically compare several variants of cross-validation (CV) and out-of-sample (OOS) performance estimation procedures, using both artificially generated and real-world spatiotemporal datasets. Our results show both CV and OOS reporting useful estimates, but they suggest that blocking data in space and/or in time may be useful in mitigating CV’s bias to underestimate error. Overall, our study shows the importance of considering data dependencies when estimating the performance of spatiotemporal forecasting models.

Group testing can improve the cost-efficiency of prospective-retrospective biomarker studies

Background Cancer treatment is increasingly dependent on biomarkers for prognostication and treatment selection. Potential biomarkers are frequently evaluated in prospective-retrospective studies in which biomarkers are measured retrospectively on archived specimens after completion of prospective clinical trials. In light of the high costs of some assays, random sampling designs have been proposed that measure biomarkers for a random sub-sample of subjects selected on the basis of observed outcome and possibly other variables. Compared with a standard design that measures biomarkers on all subjects, a random sampling design can be cost-efficient in the sense of reducing the cost of the study substantially while achieving a reasonable level of precision. Methods For a biomarker that indicates the presence of some molecular alteration (e.g., mutation in a gene), we explore the use of a group testing strategy, which involves physically pooling specimens across subjects and assaying pooled samples for the presence of the molecular alteration of interest, for further improvement in cost-efficiency beyond random sampling. We propose simple and general approaches to estimating the prognostic and predictive values of biomarkers with group testing, and conduct simulation studies to validate the proposed estimation procedures and to assess the cost-efficiency of the group testing design in comparison to the standard and random sampling designs. Results Simulation results show that the proposed estimation procedures perform well in realistic settings and that a group testing design can have considerably higher cost-efficiency than a random sampling design. Conclusions Group testing can be used to improve the cost-efficiency of biomarker studies.