Abstract
This study explores the indicative vs. subjunctive alternation in Spanish subordinate clauses following epistemic
adverbials and expressions of possibility. Anchored in semantic-pragmatic and variationist theoretical frameworks, traditional
research on mood alternation in Spanish remains largely experimental in nature. In contrast, we adopt a corpus-based
multifactorial methodology to investigate 4,199 occurrences of fourteen expressions of possibility extracted from the
Corpus del Español (e.g. caso de que, poder ser que, por si
acaso, posiblemente, etc.) annotated contextually for structural, semantic and stylistic variables.
Methodologically, we conduct an exploratory multiple correspondence analysis followed by a confirmatory binary logistic regression
to examine whether/how the linguistic contexts affect mood variation. Overall, the results indicate that previously unexplored
semantic factors (such as the inherent lexical aspect of verbs in subordinate clauses) significantly influence mood variation in
Spanish. Ultimately, our results suggest that subjunctive uses are less uniform and more prone to internal variation than
indicative uses.