Partisanship in the #MeToo Era

Partisanship structures mass politics by shaping the votes, policy views, and political perceptions of ordinary people. Even so, substantial shifts in partisanship can occur when elites signal clear differences on a political issue and attentive citizens update their views of party reputations. Mismatched partisans who strongly care about the issue respond by changing parties in a process of “issue evolution” when writ large. Others simply update their views to match their party in a “conflict extension” process. We build on these models by integrating the largely separate research strands of party issue ownership. Using sexual misconduct as a critical case study, we argue that partisan change can occur rapidly when party elites move strategically to take ownership of an issue, thereby clarifying differences between the parties. Using a quasi-experiment, a survey experiment, and data from dozens of national surveys, we find recent, rapid shifts in party reputations on #MeToo, views of the issue, party votes, and broader party support.

Population Growth and Partisan Change in the South

The migratory mechanism at the heart of movers and stayers theory is at the local level, but the aggregation of these localized effects generate state-level dynamics as well. Over the past 20 years, the southern states have increasingly diverged into those with high population growth and those with low population growth. As movers and stayers theory predicts, these differences in population growth produce political differences. There is a substantively and statistically significant relationship between faster population growth and increased support for Democratic presidential candidates. Diverging population trajectories have also eroded the traditional political distinctions between the Rim South and the Deep South. Today, the primary sub-regional distinction is between the high-growth states and the low-growth states. Evidence from the partisan split in U.S. House delegations and both the lower and upper houses of the southern state legislatures clearly illustrates the significance of this new population-based sub-regional distinction.

Migration and Partisan Change

As Democratic Party attachment and support for Democratic candidates has begun to grow in the South, existing theories designed to explain Republican growth—whether based on race relations, economic growth, or cultural conservatism—fare poorly. The author advances a new theory—Movers and Stayers theory—to explain this recent growth in Democratic support. This chapter includes a broad outline of the theory—one focused on population growth’s role in the expansion of Democratic support—and an explanation of the dynamics that boost progressivism in high-growth areas and inhibit its development in declining communities. The theory highlights the role of the distinctive progressivism of movers on the political attitudes of stayers in their new homes, and stayers in the communities they have left. The theory explains why community decline results in different political responses from whites and people of color, and it highlights the waning significance of Key’s “black belt” hypothesis.

Electoral Afterlives

This chapter considers Labor’s Non-Partisan League (LNPL) and the Liberty League after the 1936 election campaign. Both remained in existence for several years, though the Liberty League was far less active. Meanwhile, the LNPL shifted its sights from electing the president to electing his supporters in Congress. In so doing, its actions took on a more partisan hue, for most LNPL support went to liberal Democrats and few, if any, progressive Republicans. It also opposed some conservative Southern Democrats, suggesting a nascent interest in partisan change—something President Roosevelt had himself encouraged with his 1938 “purge” campaign, when he urged defeat of his most bitter Democratic critics in their primary elections. Especially after 1938, CIO leaders began to look beyond a strategy of “rewarding and punishing” to envisaging a cohesive, disciplined, and supportive Democratic Party as a vehicle through which labor’s aims could best be achieved over the long term.

Evaluating Candidate Positioning and Success in the 2018 Midterm Elections

The 2018 House midterm elections saw Democrats regain a majority in the chamber for the first time in almost a decade. Contributing to this partisan change was the difficult situation Republican House incumbents were subject to. This article will examine the different factors contributing to the Republicans’ loss including the role of ideology in candidate success in both the primary and general election stage, the effects of retirements and open seats, and the value of presidential endorsements and legislative position taking.

Dixie Backlash? Anti-Southern Affect and Party Support Outside the South

The literature on partisan change in the American electorate has devoted considerable attention to explaining Republican gains in the South. Less time has been devoted to examining changes outside of the South, where a Democratic majority has persisted-and indeed grown-over the past two decades. This article examines whether the realignment toward the Republican Party in the South has resulted in a move toward the Democratic Party outside the South. Specifically, it is posited that the growing influence of the South within the Republican Party has resulted in a backlash against the GOP. Using data from the American National Election Studies, this article examines affect toward southerners as a determinant of the political behavior of non-southerners. Findings indicate that even after controlling for other explanatory variables, affect toward southerners is a significant predictor of how non-southerners evaluate the political parties, as well as vote choice in the 2008 presidential election. While partisanship and ideology remain the best predictors of vote choice among non-southerners, anti-southern backlash should not be discounted for the GOP's "Northern problem" in recent elections.