Predicting Eurasian Watermilfoil and Curly-leaf Pondweed Presence-Absence in Adirondack Lakes Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

Aquatic invasive species, Eurasian Watermilfoil (EWM) and Curly-leaf Pondweed (CLP), have been dispersing across New York, USA and are threatening the ecosystem of Adirondack Park, a state park with a large forest preserve and heavily frequented by tourists. In this study, the prediction of EWM and CLP invasion across Adirondack Park lakes is modeled using logistic regression (LR) and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) with lake, landscape, and climate variable predictors. EWM presence-absence is found to be best predicted by nearby invaded lakes, human presence, and elevation. The presence-absence of CLP models have similar findings, with the addition of game-fish abundance being important. GWLR increases model performance and prediction, with explained variation of EWM and CLP increasing by 23% and 16% and the percent correctly predicted increasing by 2.6% and 0.9%. The study shows that GWLR, a relatively novel methodology, works better than common LR models for predicting invasion of EWM and CLP across Adirondack Park, and corroborates anthropogenic influences on dispersal of aquatic invaders.

Predicting Eurasian Watermilfoil and Curly-leaf Pondweed Presence-Absence in Adirondack Lakes Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression

Aquatic invasive species, Eurasian Watermilfoil (EWM) and Curly-leaf Pondweed (CLP), have been dispersing across New York, USA and are threatening the ecosystem of Adirondack Park, a state park with a large forest preserve and heavily frequented by tourists. In this study, the prediction of EWM and CLP invasion across Adirondack Park lakes is modeled using logistic regression (LR) and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) with lake, landscape, and climate variable predictors. EWM presence-absence is found to be best predicted by nearby invaded lakes, human presence, and elevation. The presence-absence of CLP models have similar findings, with the addition of game-fish abundance being important. GWLR increases model performance and prediction, with explained variation of EWM and CLP increasing by 23% and 16% and the percent correctly predicted increasing by 2.6% and 0.9%. The study shows that GWLR, a relatively novel methodology, works better than common LR models for predicting invasion of EWM and CLP across Adirondack Park, and corroborates anthropogenic influences on dispersal of aquatic invaders.

Spatial analysis of two aquatic invaders in Adirondack Lakes: a modelling approach for environmental management

The global expansion of humans has stressed the natural world, removed boundaries between continents and habitats and exposed natural areas to invasive species. These cause billions of dollars of damage yet there are limited funds given for their management. Predictive tools can be used to develop pro-active strategies for managing invasive species and this study developed such a tool. Publicly available data were used to build predictive models for the presence of two invasive species, curly-leaf pondweed (Potamogeton crispus) and Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) within the Adirondack Park (New York State). Predictors were identified through: bivariate analysis to test the variables; ordinary least squares regression to build predictive models and logistic regression to validate those models; geographically weighted logistic regression to evaluate local impacts. Models were ranked by Aikake information criterion minimization and evaluated with McFadden’s rho-squared, standard coefficients and variance inflation factors. The top five models for each invasive species established seven predictors for curly-leaf pondweed and nine predictors for Eurasian watermilfoil. Geographically weighted regression, a local analysis, was found to be a definite improvement over the global analysis for watermilfoil but not for pondweed. Two predictors (lake elevation and distance to Interstate-87) were significant in all the top models for both species. The identified predictors provided a group of characteristics that could be used to identify vulnerable lakes and prioritize management strategies. Even though these findings were specific to the Adirondack Park, this approach could be applied to other invasive species or other areas to help in the decision-making process for management.

Spatial analysis of two aquatic invaders in Adirondack Lakes: a modelling approach for environmental management

The global expansion of humans has stressed the natural world, removed boundaries between continents and habitats and exposed natural areas to invasive species. These cause billions of dollars of damage yet there are limited funds given for their management. Predictive tools can be used to develop pro-active strategies for managing invasive species and this study developed such a tool. Publicly available data were used to build predictive models for the presence of two invasive species, curly-leaf pondweed (Potamogeton crispus) and Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) within the Adirondack Park (New York State). Predictors were identified through: bivariate analysis to test the variables; ordinary least squares regression to build predictive models and logistic regression to validate those models; geographically weighted logistic regression to evaluate local impacts. Models were ranked by Aikake information criterion minimization and evaluated with McFadden’s rho-squared, standard coefficients and variance inflation factors. The top five models for each invasive species established seven predictors for curly-leaf pondweed and nine predictors for Eurasian watermilfoil. Geographically weighted regression, a local analysis, was found to be a definite improvement over the global analysis for watermilfoil but not for pondweed. Two predictors (lake elevation and distance to Interstate-87) were significant in all the top models for both species. The identified predictors provided a group of characteristics that could be used to identify vulnerable lakes and prioritize management strategies. Even though these findings were specific to the Adirondack Park, this approach could be applied to other invasive species or other areas to help in the decision-making process for management.

The Big Map

This chapter tells the story of how the early Adirondack Park Agency (APA) struggled to meet the state's assignments. It details what the state legislature gave to the early APA: an extremely ambitious to-do list and a ridiculously small budget. Much of the work depended on the men who had also worked for the Temporary Study Commission (TSC). The chapter analyses the story of George Davis who turned the idea for his dissertation into a big map that transformed life in the North Country. Davis's passion was protecting land that he thought should remain free of human impact. His thesis would compile data to show which Adirondack lands were suitable for development and which should remain undisturbed. The chapter then shifts with the APA chairman, Richard Lawrence who overcame opposition on several fronts as he struggled to maintain a working majority of board members, and the tireless work of Peter Paine, a well-connected lawyer, who argued stridently for the two plans. Ultimately, the chapter explains the significance of the APA map project. It argues that map making was important because the legal requirements for the land use plan were unusual, as most land use laws use text to describe the boundary lines of the area being regulated.

The Big Push

This chapter highlights Peter S. Paine's responsibilities and works at Cleary Gottlieb, an international law firm with offices on an upper floor of a skyscraper in downtown Manhattan. It discusses the eight Adirondack bills sent to the legislature in 1971 and the four remaining bills reintroduced to the legislature in January 1972. Paine acted as a liaison between the Adirondack Park Agency (APA), his fellow Temporary Study Commission (TSC) alumni, and state legislators to move those four bills along. The chapter outlines the importance of the bills to the TSC's vision of the Adirondacks, and emphasizes the APA's main job to draft two land use plans: the State Land Master Plan, and the Land Use and Development. It further discusses the remaining TSC bills as they moved through the legislature: the Environmental Quality Bond Act; the Wild, Scenic, and Recreational Rivers Act; a bill that would require a constitutional amendment to diminish the park's boundaries; and a bill that expanded the size of the park by about 250,000 acres. Ultimately, the chapter assesses the APA board's struggles with town governments trying to sneak by the agency, crossed signals from Albany, and the board's biggest problem: it was split, with five APA members solidly in favor of regional zoning, one whose support was conditional, and three who were skeptical of the idea.

“Pass the F*cking Thing”

This chapter discusses the Temporary Study Commission's (TSC) intent to add one more way to protect undeveloped lakes and sweeping vistas that were privately owned in the Adirondacks. It introduces the most influential legislators representing the Adirondack Park in 1971: Assemblyman Glenn Harris and Senator Ron Stafford. Seven other assembly members represented parts of the park, two of these played important roles in the Adirondack Park Agency (APA) legislation: Andrew Ryan, representing the Adirondack counties of Clinton, Essex, and Warren; and Dan Haley, representing Franklin and Saint Lawrence counties. But Glenn Harris's territory and interests were primarily focused on the park. The chapter then demonstrates Harris's relationship with the members of the TSC and how their recommendations were perceived. Ultimately, the chapter examines why Bill Doolittle sided with Adirondack people and opposed the APA while endorsing all of the other bills.

Introduction

This chapter introduces some of the people who played primary roles in the Adirondack Park Agency's (APA) founding. It includes the elite group of activists and policymakers who were early champions for the idea of regional land use planning; planners, lawyers, and naturalists who implemented the Land Use and Development Plan; activists who fought to abolish or weaken the plan; and public officials who had to find ways to turn it into a workable law. New York State spent twenty years struggling to write a master plan for the Adirondack Park before the APA was established. Activists had been calling for a master plan for twenty years before the state even started trying. The chapter further discusses the two produced plans, led by David Newhouse, each of them organized around a big map. One plan zoned the state land into progressively stricter classifications, culminating with wilderness. The other map rated each acre of the 3.6 million privately owned acres in terms of its suitability for development. Ultimately, the chapter assesses the aftermath of the postponement of the Land Use and Development Plan by one year and argues if the APA either saved or ruined the ecological and economic health of the park.

Order Must Be

This chapter addresses the concerns of Harold Hochschild after he learned that Governor Nelson Rockefeller was planning to give responsibility for campgrounds and other public facilities in the forest preserve to the new Office of Parks and Recreation, which was governed by a commission whose chair was Laurance Rockefeller. The chapter argues that the change was a mortal threat, according to Hochschild and Harold Jerry. Hochschild feared that if Laurance's people were allowed to operate public facilities in the forest preserve, he would use his influence to increase the number and size of those facilities. The chapter also discusses the commissioners' vision to protect the natural integrity of wild areas, promote quieter forms of recreation, shift the park's economy toward nature-oriented tourism, and tighten regulations on motorboats, snowmobiles, logging equipment, and other gasoline-powered machines. It highlights how a singular combination of political power and good timing persuaded the legislature to set up a new agency — Adirondack Park Agency (APA). The creation of the Adirondack Park Agency was one of three measures that Jerry considered essential to “saving” the Adirondacks. The other two were specifically focused on the large tracts of private land that defined the park's character.

Conclusion

This chapter looks at the major environmental laws of the United States after the Adirondack Park Land Use and Development Plan was signed into law. It also presents Senator Henry Jackson's National Land Use Policy Act in 1970. The act used incentives and sanctions to encourage states to develop land use plans for environmentally sensitive areas and large development sites. The chapter then highlights the Adirondack Park Agency's (APA) job to protect the wilderness character of a state park that was much larger than any of the national parks that existed in 1973. Many regional land use plans of the era depended on local governments taking voluntary incentives, but the Adirondack law gave a state agency statutory authority to protect environmental quality by reviewing and modifying zoning regulations. The chapter recounts the APA's three main goals: to prevent building in the park's backcountry, to make sure that development happened in places where it would not hurt the park's wild character, and to protect Adirondack shorelines. Ultimately, the chapter examines the emergence of threats to the ecological health of the Adirondacks that are beyond the park agency's power to control.