Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting

Evapotranspiration plays an important role in the terrestrial water cycle. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) has been widely used to estimate water transfer from vegetation surface to the atmosphere. Seasonal ETo forecasting provides valuable information for effective water resource management and planning. Climate forecasts from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been increasingly used to produce seasonal ETo forecasts. Statistical calibration plays a critical role in correcting bias and dispersion errors in ETo forecasts. However, time-dependent errors, resulting from GCM’s misrepresentations of climate trends, have not been explicitly corrected in ETo forecast calibrations. We hypothesize that reconstructing climate trends through statistical calibration will add extra skills to seasonal ETo forecasts. To test this hypothesis, we calibrate raw seasonal ETo forecasts constructed with climate forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) SEAS5 model across Australia, using the recently developed Bayesian Joint Probability trend-aware (BJP-ti) model. Raw ETo forecasts demonstrate significant inconsistencies with observations in both magnitudes and spatial patterns of temporal trends, particularly at long lead times. The BJP-ti model effectively corrects misrepresented trends and reconstructs the observed trends in calibrated forecasts. Improving trends through statistical calibration increases the correlation coefficient between calibrated forecasts and observations (r) by up to 0.25 and improves the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) skill score by up to 15 % in regions where climate trends are misrepresented by raw forecasts. Skillful ETo forecasts produced in this study could be used for streamflow forecasting, modelling of soil moisture dynamics, and irrigation water management. This investigation confirms the necessity of reconstructing climate trends in GCM-based seasonal ETo forecasts, and provides an effective tool for addressing this need. We anticipate that future GCM-based seasonal ETo forecasting will benefit from correcting time-dependent errors through trend reconstruction.

Statistical calibration of microbial suspensions in carrier controls during a textile disinfection ring trial

IntroductionThe high number of uncontrollable variables in microbiological systems increases experimental complexity and reduces accuracy, potentially leading to data misinterpretation or uncorrectable errors. During an interlaboratory calibration analysis it was observed that the microbial logarithmic reduction (LR) caused by disinfectants depends not only on the type of disinfectant but also on the initial microbial load in the fabric carriers, which can produce a misinterpretation of the results. Fabric carriers are commonly used in standard tests such as EN16616 and ASTM2274.ObjectiveA method based on statistical calibration is proposed using a regression line between N0 (initial microbial load in the carrier) and LR to eliminate the influence of one on the other.ResultsAn example with Candida albicans is presented. Once the method was applied, the influence of N0 on LR was eliminated and the new LR values can be used for factorial experiments, for example, to check the efficacy of disinfectants or detergents without depending on the microbial load placed in the carrier.

A Statistical Calibration Framework for Improving Non-Reference Method Particulate Matter Reporting: A Focus on Community Air Monitoring Settings

Recent advancement in lower-cost air monitoring technology has resulted in an increased interest in community-based air quality studies. However, non-reference monitoring (NRM; e.g., low-cost sensors) is imperfect and approaches that improve data quality are highly desired. Herein, we illustrate a framework for adjusting continuous NRM measures of particulate matter (PM) with field-based comparisons and non-linear statistical modeling as an example of instrument evaluation prior to exposure assessment. First, we collected continuous measurements of PM with a NRM technology collocated with a US EPA federal equivalent method (FEM). Next, we fit a generalized additive model (GAM) to establish a non-linear calibration curve that defines the relationship between the NRM and FEM data. Then, we used our fitted model to generate calibrated NRM PM data. Evaluation of raw NRM PM2.5 data revealed strong correlation with FEM (R = 0.9) but an average bias (AB) of −2.84 µg/m3 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.85 µg/m3, with 406 h of data. Fitting of our GAM revealed that the correlation structure was maintained (r = 0.9) and that average bias (AB = 0) and error (RMSE = 0) were minimized. We conclude that field-based statistical calibration models can be used to reduce bias and improve NRM data used for community air monitoring studies.

Harmonizing Multi-Source Sonar Backscatter Datasets for Seabed Mapping Using Bulk Shift Approaches

The development of multibeam echosounders (MBES) as a seabed mapping tool has resulted in the widespread uptake of backscatter intensity as an indicator of seabed substrate properties. Though increasingly common, the lack of standard calibration and the characteristics of individual sonars generally produce backscatter measurements that are relative to a given survey, presenting major challenges for seabed mapping in areas that comprise multiple MBES surveys. Here, we explore methods for backscatter dataset harmonization that leverage areas of mutual overlap between surveys for relative statistical calibration—referred to as “bulk shift” approaches. We use three multispectral MBES datasets to simulate the harmonization of backscatter collected over multiple years, and using multiple operating frequencies. Results suggest that relatively simple statistical models are adequate for bulk shift harmonization procedures, and that more flexible approaches may produce inconsistent results that risk statistical overfitting. While harmonizing datasets collected using the same operating frequency from separate surveys is generally feasible given reasonable temporal limitations, results suggest that the success at harmonizing datasets of different operating frequencies partly depends on the extent to which the frequencies differ. We recommend approaches and diagnostics for ensuring the quality of harmonized backscatter mosaics, and provide an R function for implementing the methods presented here.