Recent Changes in Average Recurrence Interval Precipitation Extremes in the Middle-Atlantic United States

Increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence have emerged as one of the more consistent climate trends in recent decades, particularly in the eastern United States. Such changes challenge the veracity of the conventional assumption of stationarity that has been applied in the published extreme rainfall analyses that are the foundation for engineering design assessments and resiliency planning. Using partial duration series with varying record lengths, temporal changes in daily and hourly rainfall extremes corresponding to average annual recurrence probabilities ranging from 50% (i.e. the 2-year storm) to 1% (i.e. the 100-year storm) are evaluated. From 2000 through 2019, extreme rainfall amounts across a range of durations and recurrence probabilities have increased at 75% of the long-term precipitation observation stations in the Middle-Atlantic region. At about a quarter of the stations, increases in extreme rainfall have exceeded 5% from 2000 through 2019, with some stations experiencing increases in excess of 10% for both daily and hourly durations. At over 40% of the stations the rainfall extremes based on the 1950-1999 partial duration series show a significant (p >0.90) change in the 100-yr ARI relative to the 1950-2019 period. Collectively the results indicate that given recent trends in extreme rainfall, routine updates of extreme rainfall analyses are warranted on 20-year intervals.

Responses of Larix principis-rupprechtii Radial Growth to Climatic Factors at Different Elevations on Guancen Mountain, North-Central China

Larix principis-rupprechtii is an important afforestation tree species in the North China alpine coniferous forest belt. Studying the correlations and response relationships between Larix principis-rupprechtii radial growth and climatic factors at different elevations is helpful for understanding the growth trends of L. principis-rupprechtiind its long-term sensitivity and adaptability to climate change. Pearson correlation, redundancy (RDA), and sliding analysis were performed to study the correlations and dynamic relationships between radial growth and climatic factors. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The three-elevation standard chronologies all exhibited high characteristic values, contained rich climate information and were suitable for tree-ring climatological analyses. (2) Both temperature and precipitation restricted low-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth, while monthly maximum temperatures mainly affected mid-high-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth. (3) Mid-elevation L. principis-rupprechtii radial growth responded to climate factors with a “lag effect” and was not restricted by spring and early summer drought. (4) Long-term sliding analysis showed that spring temperatures and winter precipitation were the main climatic factors restricting L. principis-rupprechtii growth under warming and drying climate trends at different elevations. The tree-ring width index and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were positively correlated, indicating that L. principis-rupprechtii growth is somewhat restricted by drought. These results provide a reference and guidance for L. principis-rupprechtii management and sustainable development in different regions under warming and drying background climate trends.

Does Climate Change Influence Russian Agriculture? Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors primarily affected by climate change. This impact is very uneven, especially for countries with large territories. This paper examines the contribution of climate change to the improvement in agricultural productivity in Russia over the past two decades. Several ensembles of fixed effects regressions on yields and gross harvests of grain, fruits, and berries, potato, and vegetables were evaluated for a sample of 77 Russian regions over the 2002–2019 period. In contrast to similar studies of the climate impact on Russian agriculture, we considered a larger set of variables, including both Russian and global climate trends, technological factors, and producer prices. Russian weather trends such as winter softening and increase in summer heat have a significant but opposite effect on yields. An interesting finding is a significant and mostly positive influence of global climatic variables, such as the CO2 concentration, El Niño and La Niña events on both harvests and yields. Although technological factors are the main drivers of growth in Russian agricultural performance over the past 20 years, we found a strong positive effect on yield and gross harvest only for mineral fertilizers. The influence of the other variables is mixed, which is mainly due to data quality and aggregation errors.

A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats

Many marine-terminating outlet glaciers have retreated rapidly in recent decades, but these changes have not been formally attributed to anthropogenic climate change. A key challenge for such an attribution assessment is that if glacier termini are sufficiently perturbed from bathymetric highs, ice-dynamic feedbacks can cause rapid retreat even without further climate forcing. In the presence of internal climate variability, attribution thus depends on understanding whether (or how frequently) these rapid retreats could be triggered by climatic noise alone. Our simulations with idealized glaciers show that in a noisy climate, rapid retreat is a stochastic phenomenon. We therefore propose a probabilistic approach to attribution and present a framework for analysis that uses ensembles of many simulations with independent realizations of random climate variability. Synthetic experiments show that century-scale climate trends substantially increase the likelihood of rapid glacier retreat. This effect depends on the timescales over which ice dynamics integrate forcing. For a population of synthetic glaciers with different topographies, we find that external trends increase the number of large retreats triggered within the population, offering a metric for regional attribution. Our analyses suggest that formal attribution studies are tractable and should be further pursued to clarify the human role in recent ice-sheet change. We emphasize that early-industrial-era constraints on glacier and climate state are likely to be crucial for such studies.

Climate trends and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City

This paper reviews the trends of climate and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). The linear regression method is used to determine the trend and variation of past climate (1980-2019) at Tan Son Hoa station. The annual average temperature tends to increase about 0.024°C/year (r2=0.54) and the rainfall tends to increase about 6.03 mm/year (r2=0.67). For temperature scenario, by 2030 the annual average temperature in the whole city will increase from 0.80- 0.81°C (RCP4.5) and 0.92-0.98°C (RCP8.5). By 2050, it will increase 1.23-1.33°C (RCP4.5) and 1.55-1.68°C (RCP8.5). By 2100, it will increase 1.75-1.88°C (RCP4.5) and 3.20-3.55°C (RCP8.5) compared to the base period. Regarding rainfall scenario, in 2030, the city-wide average rainfall will increase by 12-21% (RCP4.5) and by 12-17% (RCP8.5). By 2050, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 13-15% (RCP4.5) and 15-17% (RCP8.5). By 2100, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 18-22% (RCP4.5) and 20-21% (RCP8.5) compared to the base period.

A pragmatic approach for analysis of long-term climate trends for apple growing regions of Himachal Pradesh, India

The study assessed the long-term climate as well as the area and production trends for four representative decades (1985-2020) in three apple growing districts of Himachal Pradesh, India with the objective of understanding the impact of climate change on apple crop. A long term database was prepared for minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and rainfall, besides area and production for four decades for three districts of Himachal Pradesh, India. Trend analysis indicated that the temperature in apple growing regions of generally showed an increasing trend, whereas, decreasing trend was observed in the precipitation. The minimum temperature in apple growing regions of Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur districts has shown an increase of 0.82º C, 1.09 º C and 0.03 ºC, respectively and the precipitation (rainfall) in the Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur districts has shown a decrease by 5.3 mm, 3.3 mm and 0.9 mm, respectively. Increased warming in the mountain regions is elevating temperatures resulting in the reduction of chilling hours, pre-requisite for apple fruiting. However, in the higher elevation of Shimla, Kullu and Kinnaur districts, in spite of the increase in temperature, the areas are still suitable for apple farming. The study indicated that the area and production of all three districts of study are increasing because growers are slowly shifting to low chilling varieties (Varieties having chilling hours requirement less than 1000 hours). Also, the present ecosystem at lower elevations will not support high chilling requirement varieties and apple growers will have to shift to either low chilling varieties or alternate crops.

Recent Rainfall Trend and Abrupt Changes Over Cavally Basin (West Africa)

Aims: Analyze the recent variations in annual and monthly precipitation at 18 pluviometry stations in the Cavally river basin. Place and Duration of Study: Data of month and annual rainfall data of 37 years (1980-2016) collected from the National direction of Meteorology for Ivory Coast and Guinea and from https://app.climateengine.org/climateEngine for Liberia. Methodology: Statistical methods are used to highlight the evolution of cumulative annual rainfall and the distribution of the different seasons over the period 1980-2016. Hanning’s low pass, Mann-Kendall classic test, modified Mann-Kendall test, Mann-Kendall seasonal test and Standard Normal Homogeneity Test were applied to identify the existing trend direction and significance of change over time. Results: The periods 1980-1996 and 1997-2016 could be considered as wet and dry periods respectively (with a rainfall deficit of 18% after the break in 1996). In addition, we observe a decrease in rainy days of strong accumulation that lead to a significant drop in total annual rainfall. Finally, an abnormal increase in rainfall during the dry season months and a decrease in rainfall during the rainy season months. This indicates an intra-seasonal irregularity (shortening of the rainy season and prolongation of the dry season) of precipitation. Conclusion: The Hanning filter, M-K test and SNHT are non-parametric tests widely used in the study of climate trends. However, the additional consideration of serial autocorrelation (MM-K test) and seasonal trends (M-K-S test) allows to extend and refine the information on climate variability.

Rainfall in Vietnam

<p>The thesis is a comprehensive analysis of the climate of Vietnam, concentrating on rainfall. Vietnam lies in the tropical northern hemisphere in a region that is influenced by the South Asian, East Asian and Australian monsoons. Rainfall here is associated with several different mechanisms, such as the monsoon, tropical cyclones, topography, and so on. From the initial climatological analysis, monsoon and non-monsoon rainfall is investigated. Non-monsoon rainfall is found to be related to a vortex often found off the coast of Vietnam, a newly-understood extension of the “Borneo vortex”. The thesis begins with a study of the surface climate and the general atmospheric circulation over the Southeast Asian region, which dominates Vietnam’s climate. Trends of surface temperature and rainfall were investigated for a 40 year period (1971-2010), using a newly-extended dataset of 60 stations. Vietnam’s average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.26 ± 0.10°C per decade since the 1970s, approximately twice the rate of global warming over the same period. The increase in temperature is statistically significant in most sub-regions. Trends in rainfall are however mostly insignificant in that period. Temperature and rainfall variability are shown to be linked to ENSO on both a national and sub-regional scale. The rainfall climate of Vietnam has been studied in depth, particularly the characteristics of monsoon rainfall and the variability of the length of wet and dry seasons. That investigation has led to the development of an objective monsoon index, based on regional mean sea level pressure and low level zonal wind. While originally developed to define onset and withdrawal dates for the monsoon in Vietnam and over Southeast Asia, the index is shown to be applicable in all monsoon regions of the globe, the first objective index to have such global utility. The final part of the thesis deals with tropical vortex activity and its associated rainfall. Vortices exist almost year-round, migrating from the coast of Vietnam – Southeast Asian Sea - Philippines in summer to the Borneo Island region in winter. Clear evidence is found for the presence of a semi-permanent vortex near the south coast of Vietnam or the north of the Southeast Asian Sea – Maritime Continent (SEASMC) region. It is this vortex and the tropical cyclones over the SEASMC region that significantly contribute to the Vietnam rainfall, particularly the post-monsoon rainfall in Central Vietnam.</p>

Rainfall in Vietnam

<p>The thesis is a comprehensive analysis of the climate of Vietnam, concentrating on rainfall. Vietnam lies in the tropical northern hemisphere in a region that is influenced by the South Asian, East Asian and Australian monsoons. Rainfall here is associated with several different mechanisms, such as the monsoon, tropical cyclones, topography, and so on. From the initial climatological analysis, monsoon and non-monsoon rainfall is investigated. Non-monsoon rainfall is found to be related to a vortex often found off the coast of Vietnam, a newly-understood extension of the “Borneo vortex”. The thesis begins with a study of the surface climate and the general atmospheric circulation over the Southeast Asian region, which dominates Vietnam’s climate. Trends of surface temperature and rainfall were investigated for a 40 year period (1971-2010), using a newly-extended dataset of 60 stations. Vietnam’s average temperature has increased at a rate of 0.26 ± 0.10°C per decade since the 1970s, approximately twice the rate of global warming over the same period. The increase in temperature is statistically significant in most sub-regions. Trends in rainfall are however mostly insignificant in that period. Temperature and rainfall variability are shown to be linked to ENSO on both a national and sub-regional scale. The rainfall climate of Vietnam has been studied in depth, particularly the characteristics of monsoon rainfall and the variability of the length of wet and dry seasons. That investigation has led to the development of an objective monsoon index, based on regional mean sea level pressure and low level zonal wind. While originally developed to define onset and withdrawal dates for the monsoon in Vietnam and over Southeast Asia, the index is shown to be applicable in all monsoon regions of the globe, the first objective index to have such global utility. The final part of the thesis deals with tropical vortex activity and its associated rainfall. Vortices exist almost year-round, migrating from the coast of Vietnam – Southeast Asian Sea - Philippines in summer to the Borneo Island region in winter. Clear evidence is found for the presence of a semi-permanent vortex near the south coast of Vietnam or the north of the Southeast Asian Sea – Maritime Continent (SEASMC) region. It is this vortex and the tropical cyclones over the SEASMC region that significantly contribute to the Vietnam rainfall, particularly the post-monsoon rainfall in Central Vietnam.</p>