El ciclo económico de Cataluña. Un análisis de la simetría respecto a España y a la UEM

El estudio analiza la simetría de las fluctuaciones cíclicas de la Comunidad Autónoma Cataluña en relación con el ciclo de España y con el de la UEM en el periodo 2000-2010. El objetivo es confirmar la hipótesis que con la integración, el ciclo económico catalán presenta mayor grado de sincronización con el ciclo de la UEM que con el de la economía española. Se trata de evaluar si el border effect de la región ha disminuido con el proceso de integración a la UEM, llevando a que los linkages con países/regiones vecinos compensen a nivel regional shocks específicos del país. Los resultados tienden a mostrar que Cataluña ha incrementado su grado de simetría con el ciclo de la UEM y se ha alejado del ciclo de la economía española. Dos de los factores que ayudan a explicar este proceso son que Cataluña ha incremento la intensidad comercial y ha disminuido su especialización productiva con respecto a la UEM y además lo haya hecho en mayor grado del que se detecta en la intensidad comercial y en la especialización con España.

Can South America form an optimal monetary area? A structural vector autoregression analysis

This research analyzes the feasibility of adopting a common currency in South America using the Optimal Monetary Areas theory. Taking into account that the relative dominance of regional shocks in local output is considered a key indicator to adopt a regional currency, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to determine what type of shock —among global, regional or country specific— prevails in South American economies. The results of variance decomposition demonstrate that the output trajectory of South American countries is mainly explained by country-specific shocks; therefore, South America as a whole is not considered not an optimal monetary area. However, we identified a group of countries —named Sud-5 (comprised of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Brazil and Argentina)— for which the costs of a hypothetical monetary union would be relatively lower.

How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks

This article studies the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amid the unfolding effects of the USA–China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (USA, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a Structural VAR (SVAR) framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1–2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the USA and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the USA and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects apart from the direct trade links.

REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MATRICES AND AN APPLICATION TO ANALYZE A MANUFACTURING EXPORT SHOCK IN MEXICO

Based on the national Input-Output Matrix (IOM) 2012 calculated by INEGI, we estimate with the Flegg approach four regional Input-Output Matrices (RIOMs) using Banco de México’s regionalization (Northern, North-Central, Central and Southern). These RIOMs are employed to evaluate the impact on regional gross output, value added and employment from a 10,000 million dollar shock on Mexican manufacturing exports. The results show that the effects on the absolute values of gross output, value added and employment in the North are clearly larger than those estimated for the other regions. Another finding is that the total effects of the regional shocks tend to concentrate in the manufacturing sector, with the highest concentration observed in the North, and the lowest in the South. It is also shown that the North is, by far, the region experiencing the greatest change in its value added relative to GDP, followed by the North Central, the Central and the South. The results suggest a strong linkage between the manufacturing sector and tertiary activities, particularly commerce and services in the central regions, as well as between manufacturing and oil and gas extraction in the South.

The effect of homeownership on the option value of regional migration

This paper estimates a lifecycle model of consumption, housing choice, and migration in the presence of aggregate and regional shocks, using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The model delivers structural estimates of moving costs by ownership status, age, and family size that complement the previous literature. Using the model, I first show that migration elasticities vary substantially between renters and owners, and I estimate the consumption value of having the option to migrate across regions when there are regional shocks. This value is 19 % of lifetime consumption on average, and it varies substantially with household type.