scholarly journals How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-115
Author(s):  
Mala Raghavan ◽  
Evelyn S. Devadason
Keyword(s):  
Structural Var ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Global Shocks ◽  
Multiplier Effects ◽  
Regional Shocks ◽  
Direct Trade

This article studies the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amid the unfolding effects of the USA–China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (USA, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a Structural VAR (SVAR) framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1–2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the USA and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the USA and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects apart from the direct trade links.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of External Shocks on the Russian Banking System in the XXI Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 51-61
Author(s):  
O. S. Kochetovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
External Financing ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
The Usa ◽  
European Debt Crisis ◽  
Favorable Conditions ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of the study was the identification of the key channel of impact of positive and negative external shocks on the Russian banking system for the period from 2000 to 2017. In conducting the study the author used systematic and statistical methods of analysis. Throughout the named period, the banking sector of Russia was always under the influence of one or another external shock: rising and falling oil prices; favorable conditions for obtaining financing on the global capital market; the global financial and economic crisis; the European debt crisis; the tapering of the quantitative easing policy in the USA; sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western countries. In the pre-crisis period, capital inflows became the main channel for the transmission of external shock. In the course of the European debt crisis, problems with attracting external financing became a key channel for the transfer of external shock. During the global crisis and the crisis of 2014–2016 the channels of transmission of external shocks to the banking sector of Russia, despite various causes, were in many ways similar. So, the main channels were the outflow of capital, the restriction of external financing, the collapse of the ruble exchange rate, and the state of confidence in the banking sector.

scholarly journals Regions and Economic Resilience: New Perspectives

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matías Mayor ◽  
Raul Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Environmental Studies ◽  
Future Research ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Policy Perspective ◽  
Biological Capacity ◽  
Adverse Environmental Conditions ◽  
Adaptive Resilience

The term “resilience” originated in environmental studies and describes the biological capacity to adapt and thrive under adverse environmental conditions. Regional economic resilience is defined as the capacity of a territory’s economy to resist and/or recover quickly from external shocks, even improving its situation from the pre-shock status. This editorial introduction provides a summary of the eleven contributions included in the special issue on regions and economic resilience. These eleven articles focus on different channels related to processes of mitigation (resistance-recovery) and adaptive resilience (reorientation-renewal) in a wide variety of geographical settings and scales. They include methodological advances and also relevant results from a policy perspective. The editorial concludes by providing some directions for future research.

Employment performance in times of crisis

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Kahl ◽  
Christian Hundt
Keyword(s):  
Firm Growth ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Levels Of Analysis ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Clusters ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to elucidate the determinants of economic resilience at various levels of analysis. While the economic benefits of regional clustering are well-documented, the impact of external shocks on regional clusters has only recently gained attention. This study explores the antecedents of economic resilience, defined as sustained employment growth, prior to and during the global financial crisis within the German biotechnology industry. Design/methodology/approach – This study combines multilevel linear regression analysis with egocentric network analysis. This allows us to distinguish micro- and context-level effects in the analysis of economic resilience. Findings – The findings of this study indicate that while specialization at the network and context-level is conducive to firm growth prior to the crisis, these configurations seem to be particularly susceptible to external shocks. Conversely, diversity (diversified regional agglomerations and diverse networks) seems to be associated with economic resilience during the crisis. Moreover, we find that economic resilience is connected to adaptive capability at the micro-level, that is, the ability to expand and diversify a firms’ portfolio of network ties in the face of an external shock. Finally, we show that these adaptive processes are facilitated by geographical proximity among collaborating organizations. Originality/value – This study contributes to the existing literature by showing that the antecedents of economic resilience are located at multiple levels of analysis. An important implication of this study is that the examination of the resilience of regional clusters may thus be significantly enhanced by disentangling effects at the firm, network and regional (i.e. context) level.

scholarly journals The impact of external shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a structural VAR model with block exogeneity

2012 ◽  
Vol 132 ◽  
pp. 35-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Allegret ◽  
Cécile Couharde ◽  
Cyriac Guillaumin
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Var Model ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Climate change and Forest disturbances in Europe: an economic analysis of the losses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaume Sempere ◽  
Jose Maria Da-Rocha ◽  
Javier García-Cutrín ◽  
María-Luisa Chas-Amil ◽  
Eduardo Sánchez-Llamas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Climate warming is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the mid to long term (Lindner et al., 2010; Bolte et al., 200); Morin et al., 2018; Dale et al. (2000), Seidl et al., 2011)). Here, we combine a (dynamic general equilibrium) model of forest management with inter-country input-output tables (Remond-Tiedrez et al., 2019)) to estimate the economic effect on the EU-28 and USA economies of changes in the output of the forestry and logging sectors due to extreme forest disturbance events. Given our model results, we estimate that the impact on the EU-28 economy will be equivalent to the value of wood damaged multiplied 3.32 fold [3.00-3.44]. We find that the economic cost of a global pan-European extreme event (a pulse of 450 M m3) could be 120.4 billion Euros in the EU-28 and and 1.7 billion in the USA (i.e. 0.926 and 0.015% of their respective GDPs). Finally, we explore how to design incentives to increase the economic resilience of the response of forestry and logging companies to expected future climate change. Using a heterogeneous companies model, we show that payments to landowners to conserve forest increase economic resilience.

scholarly journals Cumulative Risk of Immigration Prison Conditions on Health Outcomes Among Detained Immigrants in California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Altaf Saadi ◽  
Caitlin Patler ◽  
Maria-Elena De Trinidad Young
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
General Health ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Good Health ◽  
Health Conditions ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
The Usa

Abstract Objectives The USA maintains the world’s largest immigration detention system. This study examines the mechanisms by which detention serves as a catalyst for worsening health. Methods Using data from detained immigrants in California (n = 493) from 2013 to 2014, we assessed the prevalence of exposure to conditions of confinement hypothesized to negatively influence health; the extent to which conditions of confinement are associated with psychological stress, diagnosed mental health conditions, and/or declines in general health; and the cumulative impact of confinement conditions on these outcomes. Results We found that each condition increased the likelihood of one or more negative health conditions, but there was also a cumulative effect: for each additional confinement condition, the odds of worsening general health rose by 39% and reporting good health decreased by 24%. Conclusions Confinement conditions are associated with poor physical and mental health outcomes among immigrants detained in immigration prisons. Policies that seek to improve specific conditions in detention centers may remove some risks of harm, but alternatives to detention are likely to be most effective.

scholarly journals Cluster Policies, Organising Capacity and Regional Resilience: Evidence from German Case Studies

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Kiese ◽  
Christian Hundt
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Cluster Policy ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Regional Resilience ◽  
German Regions ◽  
Interview Survey ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Resilience refers to the ability of a regional economy to recover from external shocks and to return to a sustainable growth path afterwards. This paper departs from the assumption that by improving a region's organising capacity, cluster policies can strengthen regional resilience. We argue that the impact of cluster policies on regional resilience depends on the portfolio of clusters targeted for promotion, which may increase specialisation, unrelated or related variety in a region's economic fabric. Based on a multidimensional model of cluster policies, case study evidence from seven German regions is drawn from an interview survey of 145 practitioners, policy advisors and independent observers. By illustrating the connections between cluster policy, organising capacity, and specialisation versus variety, these findings can be linked conceptually to regional economic resilience. This argument allows for some policy recommendations and the formulation of issues for further research.

scholarly journals The Effect of Innovative Entrepreneurial Vitality on Economic Resilience Based on a Spatial Perspective: Economic Policy Uncertainty as a Moderating Variable

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10677
Author(s):  
Weilong Wang ◽  
Jianlong Wang ◽  
Shaersaikai Wulaer ◽  
Bing Chen ◽  
Xiaodong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Agglomeration ◽  
Indicator Evaluation ◽  
The Impact

This study measured the economic resilience of 269 prefecture-level cities in China by constructing an indicator evaluation system for the resilience, adjustment, and responsiveness of the economic system under external shocks. A dynamic spatial Durbin model and a moderating mediation model were employed to analyze empirically the impact of economic policy uncertainty and innovative entrepreneurial vitality on economic resilience using prefecture-level panel data from 2004 to 2018. The statistical results revealed that there were significant “snowball” effects and spatial spillover characteristics of economic resilience. Under the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty, innovative entrepreneurial vitality was found to have a significant positive effect on economic resilience. Furthermore, innovative entrepreneurial vitality was found to enhance economic resilience significantly by upgrading the industrial structure, alleviating the income gap, and guiding economic agglomeration in the context of economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, the impacts of innovative entrepreneurial vitality and economic policy uncertainty on economic resilience, respectively, showed significant heterogeneities in terms of the cities’ regions and economic sizes. The above-mentioned results were found to be valid even after a series of robustness tests were carried out.

scholarly journals Climate change and Forest disturbances in Europe: an economic analysis of the losses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose-Maria Da-Rocha ◽  
Javier Garcia-Cutrin ◽  
Jaume Sempere ◽  
Maria-Jose Gutierrez ◽  
Maria-Luisa Chas-Amil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Climate warming is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the mid to long term. Here, we combine a model of forest management with inter-country input-output tables to estimate the economic effect on the EU-28 and USA economies of changes in the output of the forestry and logging sectors due to extreme forest disturbance events. Given our model results, we estimate that the impact on the EU-28 economy will be equivalent to the value of wood damaged multiplied 3.32 fold [3.00-3.44]. We find that the economic cost of a global pan-European extreme event (a pulse of 450 M m3) could be 120.4 billion Euros in the EU-28 and and 1.7 billion in the USA (i.e. 0.926 and 0.015% of their respective GDPs). Finally, we explore how to design incentives to increase the economic resilience of the response of forestry and logging companies to expected future climate change. Using a heterogeneous companies model, we show that payments to landowners to conserve forest increase economic resilience.

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