Does heat tolerance actually predict geographic thermal limits of animal species?

To understand species climatic vulnerability, our measures of their thermal tolerance should predict their geographic thermal limits. Yet, this assumption is mostly ungranted. We tested if animals heat tolerance restrict the warmest temperatures they can live at (Tmax), distinguishing among species differently challenged by their thermal environment. For that, we compiled 2350 measurements of species heat tolerance indexes and corresponding Tmax, measured at different microhabitats. We show that reptiles, a flagship for climatic vulnerability studies, are particularly unbounded by their heat tolerance. Contrarily, tolerance restricted marine fish ranges in a non-linear fashion which contrasts with terrestrial taxa. Behavioral tolerance indexes, widely used to predict vulnerability, predicted Tmax inconsistently across Tmax indexes, or were inversely related to it. Heat tolerance restricts geographic limits more strongly for more thermally challenged species. In turn, factors uncoupling heat tolerance and Tmax (plasticity, thermoregulation, adaptation) should be more important for less thermally challenged species at their warm edges of distribution.

Warming Threatens to Propel the Expansion of the Exotic Seagrass Halophila stipulacea

The spread of exotic species to new areas can be magnified when favored by future climatic conditions. Forecasting future ranges using species distribution models (SDMs) could be improved by considering physiological thresholds, because models solely based on occurrence data cannot account for plasticity due to acclimation of individuals to local conditions over their life-time or to adaptation due to selection within local populations. This is particularly relevant for the exotic seagrass Halophila stipulacea, which colonized the Mediterranean Sea a century ago and shifted its thermal niche, coping with a colder regime. Here, we used two hybrid models combining correlative SDMs with the thermal limits for growth of native and exotic H. stipulacea populations to predict the distribution of the species in its native (Indian Ocean and Red Sea) and exotic ranges (Mediterranean Sea and Caribbean Sea) under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes by 2050 and 2100. Then, we assessed the differences between hybrid models based on native Red Sea thermal limits (niche conservatism: 17–36°C) and on exotic Mediterranean thermal limits (local adaptation: 14–36°C). At the Mediterranean exotic range, the local adaptation hybrid model accurately agreed with the present distribution of the species while the niche conservatism-based hybrid model failed to predict 87% of the current occurrences of the species. By contrast, both hybrid models predicted similar species distributions for the native range and exotic Caribbean range at present and projected that H. stipulacea will maintain its current worldwide under all future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hybrid model based on Mediterranean thermal limits projected the expansion of H. stipulacea through the western Mediterranean basin (except the gulf of Leon) under the most severe scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2100, increasing its distribution by 50% in the Mediterranean. The future expansion of H. stipulacea is related to its capacity to cope with warm waters and it may become a relevant species in the future, particularly under the projected decline of native Mediterranean seagrasses, resulting in important shifts in seagrass communities and overall ecosystem functions.

Thermal Modelling and Analysis of A 10HP Induction Machine Using the Lumped Parameter Approach

The essence of this research work is to develop a thermal model for an induction machine that will enable the prediction of temperature in different parts of the machine. This is very important first to the manufacturer or designer of an induction machine because with these predictions one can decide on the insulation class limits the machine belongs to. Also modern trends in the construction of machines is moving in the direction of making machines with reduced weights, costs and increased efficiency. In order to achieve this, the thermal analysis becomes very crucial in deciding on what types of insulators and other materials that would be used to make these machines. In industries, the knowledge of the thermal limits of machines if well utilized increases the life span of the machines and reduces downtime; thereby increasing production and profit. Specifically, this paper (i) predicted the temperature limits of the induction machine and its components, (ii) developed an accurate thermal model for an induction machine, (iii) predicted the temperature in different parts of the induction machine using the thermal model and software program and lastly (iv) investigated how the machine symmetry is affected by the nodal configuration.

Can phenology and plasticity prevent adaptive clines in tolerance limits across temperate mountains?

Critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) are predicted to decrease with elevation, with greater change in CTmin, and the risk to suffer heat and cold stress increasing at the gradient ends. A central prediction is that populations will adapt to the prevailing climatic conditions. Yet, reliable support for such expectation is scant because of the complexity of integrating phenotypic and molecular divergence. We propose that phenotypic plasticity and breeding phenology may hinder local adaptation cancelling the appearance of adaptive patterns. We examined intraspecific variation of CTmax/CTmin in 11 populations of an amphibian across an elevational gradient, and assessed (1) the existence of local adaptation through a PST-FST comparison, (2) the acclimation scope in both thermal limits, and (3) the vulnerability to suffer acute heat (CTmax–tmax) and cold (tmin–CTmin) thermal stress, measured at both macro- and microclimatic scales. Our study revealed significant microgeographic variation in CTmax/CTmin, and unexpected elevation gradients in pond temperatures. However, variation in CTmax/CTmin could not be attributed to selection because critical thermal limits were not correlated to elevation or temperatures. Differences in breeding phenology among populations resulted in exposure to higher and more variable temperatures at mid and high elevations. Accordingly, mid- and high-elevation populations had higher CTmax and CTmin plasticities than lowland populations, but not more extreme CTmax/CTmin. Thus, we confirm our prediction that plasticity and phenological shifts may hinder local adaptation, promoting thermal niche conservatism and a higher vulnerability to climate change. This contradicts some of the existing predictions on adaptive thermal clines.

Microbes increase thermal sensitivity in the mosquito Aedes aegypti, with the potential to change disease distributions

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of many disease-causing viruses, including dengue (DENV), Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. As consequences of climate change, we expect an increase in both global mean temperatures and extreme climatic events. When temperatures fluctuate, mosquito vectors will be increasingly exposed to temperatures beyond their upper thermal limits. Here, we examine how DENV infection alters Ae. aegypti thermotolerance by using a high-throughput physiological ‘knockdown’ assay modeled on studies in Drosophila. Such laboratory measures of thermal tolerance have previously been shown to accurately predict an insect’s distribution in the field. We show that DENV infection increases thermal sensitivity, an effect that may ultimately limit the geographic range of the virus. We also show that the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia pipientis, which is currently being released globally as a biological control agent, has a similar impact on thermal sensitivity in Ae. aegypti. Surprisingly, in the coinfected state, Wolbachia did not provide protection against DENV-associated effects on thermal tolerance, nor were the effects of the two infections additive. The latter suggests that the microbes may act by similar means, potentially through activation of shared immune pathways or energetic tradeoffs. Models predicting future ranges of both virus transmission and Wolbachia’s efficacy following field release may wish to consider the effects these microbes have on host survival.

Elevational gradients do not affect thermal tolerance at local scale in populations of livebearing fishes of the genus Limia (Cyprinodontiformes: Poeciliinae)

One of the main assumptions of Janzen’s mountain passes hypothesis is that due the low overlap in temperature regimes between low and high elevations in the tropics, organisms living in high-altitude evolve narrow tolerance for colder temperatures while low-altitude species develop narrow tolerance for warmer temperatures. Some studies have questioned the generality of the assumptions and predictions of this hypothesis suggesting that other factors different to temperature gradients between low and high elevations may explain altitudinal distribution of species in the tropics. In this study we test some predictions of the Janzen’s hypothesis at local scales through the analysis of the individual thermal niche breadth in populations of livebearing fishes of the genus Limia and its relationship with their altitudinal distribution in some islands of the Greater Antilles. We assessed variation in tolerance to extreme temperatures (measured as critical thermal minimum (CTmin) and maximum (CTmax) and compared thermal breadth for populations of eight species of Limia occurring in three Caribbean islands and that occupy different altitudinal distribution. Our results showed that species analyzed had significant differences in thermal limits and ranges. Generally, species distributed in high and low elevations did not differ in thermal limits and showed a wider range of thermal tolerance. However, species living in mid-elevations had narrower range of temperature tolerance. We found no significant effect of phylogeny on CTmin, CTmax and thermal ranges among species. This study did not provide evidence supporting Janzen’s hypothesis at a local scale since thermal tolerance and altitudinal distribution of Limia species were not related to temperature gradients expected in nature. Phylogeny also did not explain the patterns we observed. We suggest that biotic factors such as species interactions, diet specializations, and others should be considered when interpreting current distribution patterns of Limia species.