5. Climate change impacts

‘Climate change impacts’ assesses the potential impacts of climate change and how these alter in scale and intensity with increasing warming by breaking down the potential impacts into sectors: extreme heat and droughts, storms and floods, agriculture, ocean acidification, biodiversity, and human health. Policy-makers should identify what dangerous climate change is. We need a realistic target concerning the degree of climate change with which we can cope. Fortunately, the societal coping range is flexible and can change with the shifting baseline and the more frequent extreme events—as long as there is strong climate science to provide clear guidance on what sort of changes are going to occur.

Confirmed archaeological evidence of water deer in Vietnam: relics of the Pleistocene or a shifting baseline?

Studies of archaeological and palaeontological bone assemblages increasingly show that the historical distributions of many mammal species are unrepresentative of their longer-term geographical ranges in the Quaternary. Consequently, the geographical and ecological scope of potential conservation efforts may be inappropriately narrow. Here, we consider a case-in-point, the water deer Hydropotes inermis , which has historical native distributions in eastern China and the Korean peninsula. We present morphological and metric criteria for the taxonomic diagnosis of mandibles and maxillary canine fragments from Hang Thung Binh 1 cave in Tràng An World Heritage Site, which confirm the prehistoric presence of water deer in Vietnam. Dated to between 13 000 and 16 000 years before the present, the specimens are further evidence of a wider Quaternary distribution for these Vulnerable cervids, are valuable additions to a sparse Pleistocene fossil record and confirm water deer as a component of the Upper Pleistocene fauna of northern Vietnam. Palaeoenvironmental proxies suggest that the Tràng An water deer occupied cooler, but not necessarily drier, conditions than today. We consider if the specimens represent extirpated Pleistocene populations or indicate a previously unrecognized, longer-standing southerly distribution with possible implications for the conservation of the species in the future.

Auditory Beat Stimulation Modulates Memory-Related Single-Neuron Activity in the Human Medial Temporal Lobe

Auditory beats are amplitude-modulated signals (monaural beats) or signals that subjectively cause the perception of an amplitude modulation (binaural beats). We investigated the effects of monaural and binaural 5 Hz beat stimulation on neural activity and memory performance in neurosurgical patients performing an associative recognition task. Previously, we had reported that these beat stimulation conditions modulated memory performance in opposite directions. Here, we analyzed data from a patient subgroup, in which microwires were implanted in the amygdala, hippocampus, entorhinal cortex and parahippocampal cortex. We identified neurons responding with firing rate changes to binaural versus monaural 5 Hz beat stimulation. In these neurons, we correlated the differences in firing rates for binaural versus monaural beats to the memory-related differences for remembered versus forgotten items and associations. In the left hemisphere, we detected statistically significant negative correlations between firing rate differences for binaural versus monaural beats and remembered versus forgotten items/associations. Importantly, such negative correlations were also observed between beat stimulation-related firing rate differences in the pre-stimulus window and memory-related firing rate differences in the post-stimulus windows. In line with concepts of homeostatic plasticity, our findings suggest that beat stimulation is linked to memory performance via shifting baseline firing levels.

Fishers’ knowledge detects ecological decay in the Mediterranean Sea

The Northern Adriatic Sea (NAS) is one of the most overexploited marine ecosystems in Europe. Given the gaps in scientific knowledge regarding the NAS, this study sought Fishers’ Ecological Knowledge (FEK) to determine NAS’ historical baselines for conservation. By interviewing 53 fishers in three ports of northern Italy, estimates of the catch rates of four commercial demersal species were generated over a 60-year period, and perceptions of target and non-target species’ diversity and benthic diversity were analysed in three groups of fishers (i.e. novices, experienced and veterans). Results showed a significant decline in perceived abundance of sole (Solea solea), common cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) and mantis shrimp (Squilla mantis), and evidence was found of a Shifting Baseline Syndrome (SBS) among novices. Given FEK’s ability to complement scientific knowledge, fishers’ participation in marine management policies and intergenerational communication should be enhanced, to improve the status of marine ecosystems and hinder SBS.

Significance of anecdotes for historical perspective: black bear predation on sea turtle eggs

In his April 2010 TED talk on the shifting baseline syndrome, Daniel Pauly warned us that ‘we transform the world, but we don’t remember it.’ This lapse is the greatest obstacle to understanding and restoring the structure and function of ecosystems transformed by anthropogenic effects over past centuries or even over the past few decades. Historical anecdotes can be a powerful tool to address gaps in our knowledge of the past. I present a case study to demonstrate the use of anecdotes to reveal the extensive predation by black bears Ursus americanus on sea turtle eggs in Florida, USA. Until the late 1800s, bears were major predators on eggs deposited by the large sea turtle aggregations nesting on the east coast of Florida. However, this past source of mortality, and the resulting substantial transport of nutrients from marine to terrestrial habitats via the bears, are largely unknown today. By the early 1900s, the great influx of humans to the east coast of Florida quickly decimated the bear populations by hunting and habitat degradation. Without historical anecdotes, knowledge of the extensive predation by black bears on sea turtle eggs in Florida would have been lost.

Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO₂

Ocean acidity extreme events are short-term periods of relatively high [H+] concentrations. The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by the ocean is expected to lead to more frequent and intense ocean acidity extreme events, not only due to changes in the long-term mean but also due to changes in short-term variability. Here, we use daily mean output from a five-member ensemble simulation of a comprehensive Earth system model under low- and high-CO2-emission scenarios to quantify historical and future changes in ocean acidity extreme events. When defining extremes relative to a fixed preindustrial baseline, the projected increase in mean [H+] causes the entire surface ocean to reach a near-permanent acidity extreme state by 2030 under both the low- and high-CO2-emission scenarios. When defining extremes relative to a shifting baseline (i.e., neglecting the changes in mean [H+]), ocean acidity extremes are also projected to increase because of the simulated increase in [H+] variability; e.g., the number of days with extremely high surface [H+] conditions is projected to increase by a factor of 14 by the end of the 21st century under the high-CO2-emission scenario relative to preindustrial levels. Furthermore, the duration of individual extreme events is projected to triple, and the maximal intensity and the volume extent in the upper 200 m are projected to quintuple. Similar changes are projected in the thermocline. Under the low-emission scenario, the increases in ocean acidity extreme-event characteristics are substantially reduced. At the surface, the increases in [H+] variability are mainly driven by increases in [H+] seasonality, whereas changes in thermocline [H+] variability are more influenced by interannual variability. Increases in [H+] variability arise predominantly from increases in the sensitivity of [H+] to variations in its drivers (i.e., carbon, alkalinity, and temperature) due to the increase in oceanic anthropogenic carbon. The projected increase in [H+] variability and extremes may enhance the risk of detrimental impacts on marine organisms, especially for those that are adapted to a more stable environment.

Auditory beat stimulation modulates memory-related single-neuron activity in the human medial temporal lobe

Auditory beats are composed of two sine waves using nearby frequencies, which can either be applied as a superposed signal to both ears or to each ear separately. In the first case, the beat sensation results from hearing an amplitude-modulated signal (monaural beat). In the second case, it is generated by phase-sensitive neurons in the brain stem (binaural beat). We investigated the effects of monaural and binaural 5 Hz beat stimulation on neural activity and memory performance in neurosurgical patients performing an associative recognition task. Previously, we had reported that these beat stimulation conditions modulated memory performance in opposite directions. Here, we analyzed data from a patient subgroup, in which microwires were implanted in the amygdala, hippocampus, entorhinal cortex and parahippocampal cortex. We identified neurons responding with firing rate changes to binaural versus monaural 5 Hz beat stimulation. In these neurons, we correlated the differences in firing rates for binaural versus monaural beats to the memory-related differences for remembered versus forgotten items and associations. In the left hemisphere for these neurons, we detected statistically significant negative correlations between firing rate differences for binaural versus monaural beats and remembered versus forgotten items/associations. Importantly, such negative correlations were also observed between beat stimulation-related firing rate differences in the baseline window and memory-related firing rate differences in the poststimulus windows. In line with concepts of homeostatic plasticity, we interpret our findings as indicating that beat stimulation is linked to memory performance via shifting baseline firing levels.