Promoting long-term forest landscape resilience in the Lake Tahoe basin

Rapid environmental changes expected in the 21st century challenge the resilience of wildlands around the world. The western portion of the Lake Tahoe basin (LTW) in California is an important ecological and cultural hotspot that is at risk of degradation from current and future environmental pressures. Historical uses, fire suppression, and a changing climate have created forest landscape conditions at risk of drought stress, destructive fire, and loss of habitat diversity. We prospectively modeled forest landscape conditions for a period of 100 years to evaluate the efficacy of five unique management scenarios in achieving desired landscape conditions across the 23,600 hectares of LTW. Management scenarios ranged from no management other than fire suppression to applying treatments consistent with historical fire frequencies and extent (i.e., regular and broadscale biomass reduction). We developed a decision support tool to evaluate environmental and social outcomes within a single framework to provide a transparent set of costs and benefits; results illuminated underlying mechanisms of forest resilience and provided actionable guidance to decision makers. Sixteen attributes were assessed in the model after assigning weights to each, derived through a survey of stakeholder priorities, so that the contribution of each attribute to evaluations of scenario performance was influenced by the combined priorities of stakeholders. We found that removing forest biomass across the landscape, particularly when accomplished using extensive fire-based removal techniques, led to highly favorable conditions for environmental quality and promoting overall landscape resilience. Environmental conditions resulting from extensive fire-based biomass removal also had nominal variation over time, in contrast with strategies that had less extensive and/or used physical removal techniques, namely thinning. Our analysis provided a transparent approach to data assessment, considering the priorities of stakeholders, to provide insights into the complexities of maintaining optimal conditions and managing landscapes to promote ecosystem resilience in a changing world.

Strategic decision support for long-term conservation management planning.

Forward thinking conservation-planning can benefit from modeling future landscapes that result from multiple alternative management scenarios. However, long-term landscape modeling and downstream analyses of modeling results can lead to massive amounts of data that are difficult to assemble, analyze, and to report findings in a way that is easily accessible to decision makers. In this study, we developed a decision support process to evaluate modeled forest conditions resulting from five management scenarios, modeled across 100 years in California's Lake Tahoe basin; to this end we drew upon a large and complex hierarchical dataset intended to evaluate landscape resilience. Trajectories of landscape characteristics used to inform an analysis of landscape resilience in the Lake Tahoe basin were modeled with the spatially explicit LANDIS-II vegetation simulator. Downstream modeling outputs of additional landscape characteristics were derived from the LANDIS-II outputs (e.g., wildlife conditions, water quality, effects of fire). The later modeling processes resulted in the generation of massive data sets with high dimensionality of landscape characteristics at both high spatial and temporal resolution. Ultimately, our analysis distilled hundreds of data inputs into trajectories of the performance of the five management scenarios over the 100-year time horizon of the modeling. We then evaluated each management scenario based on inter-year variability, and absolute and relative performance. We found that the management scenario that relied on prescribed fire, outperformed the other four management approaches. Both these results, and the process that led to them, provided decision makers with easy-to-understand results based on a rational, transparent, and repeatable decision support process.

Tree-ring climate response of Jeffrey pine in the Cascade Creek Watershed, Northern California

Understanding the forest response to ongoing climate change is crucial in forest management strategies under anticipated climate adversity. To understand the retrospective growth dynamics of Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.), tree-ring chronology from the subalpine forest in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California was correlated with air temperature, precipitation, and Palmar Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The years 1757, 1782, 1886, 1859, 1876, 1920, 1929–30, 1977, 1988–89, 2001–02, 2008, and 2014 were some of the years with noticeable low growth. There was robust growth in 1747–49, 1792, 1828, 1866–68, 1913, 1969, 1984, 1998, and 2011. Ring width index (RWI) and basal area increment showed a recent growth increase. Climate-growth response analysis revealed the growth-inhibiting influence of the hot and dry summer. More pronouncedly, warm and wet winter was found to be conducive to tree growth in the following year. A significant growth correlation with the previous year climate (stronger with PDSI) and its absence in current spring may be suggestive of potential growth stimulation by predicted warmer and longer growing season in the future. However, since the RWI chronology consisted mostly of mature trees and because the old cambial age tends to have signal divergence, further studies incorporating younger trees and cohabitant species would provide deeper insights into the growth-climate response.

Soil Phosphorus Speciation and Availability in Meadows and Forests in Alpine Lake Watersheds With Different Parent Materials

In the Lake Tahoe Basin in California and Nevada (USA), managing nutrient export from watersheds into streams and the lake is a significant challenge that needs to be addressed to improve water quality. Leaching and runoff of phosphorus (P) from soils is a major nutrient source to the lake, and P loading potential from different watersheds varies as a function of landscape and ecosystem properties, and how the watershed is managed. In this research, P availability and speciation in forest and meadow soils in the Lake Tahoe Basin were measured at two watersheds with different parent material types. Soils developed on andesitic parent materials had approximately twice as much total P compared to those developed on granitic parent materials. Regardless of parent material, organic P was 79–92% of the total P in the meadow soils, and only 13–47% in the forest soils. Most of the soil organic P consisted of monoester P compounds, but a significant amount, especially in meadow soils, was diester P compounds (up to 30% of total extracted P). Water extractable P (WEP) concentrations were ~10 times greater in the granitic forest soils compared to the andesitic forest soils, which had more poorly crystalline aluminosilicates and iron oxides that retain P and thus restrict WEP export. In the meadow soils, microbial biomass P was approximately seven times greater than the forest soils, which may be an important sink for P leached from upland forests. Results show that ecosystem and parent material are important attributes that control P speciation and availability in the Lake Tahoe Basin, and that organic P compounds are a major component of the soil P and are available for leaching from the soils. These factors can be used to develop accurate predictions of P availability and more precise forest management practices to reduce P export into Lake Tahoe.

Simulated Fire Behavior and Fine-Scale Forest Structure Following Conifer Removal in Aspen-Conifer Forests in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA

Quaking aspen is found in western forests of the United States and is currently at risk of loss due to conifer competition at within-stand scales. Wildfires in these forests are impactful owing to conifer infilling during prolonged fire suppression post-Euro-American settlement. Here, restoration cuttings seek to impact wildfire behavior and aspen growing conditions. In this study, we explored how actual and hypothetical cuttings with a range of conifer removal intensity altered surface fuel and overstory structure at stand and fine scales. We then simulated wildfires, examining fire behavior and effects on post-fire forest structures around aspen trees. We found that conifer removal constrained by lower upper diameter limits (<56 cm) had marginal effects on surface fuel and overstory structure, likely failing to enhance resource conditions sufficiently to sustain aspen. Increasing the diameter limit also led to a higher likelihood of fire spread and a higher rate of spread, owing to greater within-canopy wind speed, though crown fire activity decreased. Our simulations suggest heavier treatments could facilitate reintroduction of fire while also dampening the effects of wildfires on forest structure. Cutting specifications that relax diameter limits and remove a substantial portion of conifer overstory could better promote aspen restoration and mitigate fire hazard.