National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) better predicts critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness than COVID-GRAM, a multi-centre study

Abstract Purpose Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score. Methods We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley–McNeil test. Results The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80–0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68–0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley–McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03). Conclusions The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.

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Prognostic and discriminative accuracy of the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment compared with an early warning score: a Danish cohort study

Emergency Medicine Journal ◽

10.1136/emermed-2020-209746 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. emermed-2020-209746

Author(s):

Lise Skovgaard Svingel ◽

Merete Storgaard ◽

Buket Öztürk Esen ◽

Lotte Ebdrup ◽

Jette Ahrensberg ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Organ Failure ◽

Early Warning ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Primary Outcome ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

Icu Admission ◽

Hospitalised Patients ◽

Failure Assessment

BackgroundThe clinical benefit of implementing the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) instead of early warning scores (EWS) to screen all hospitalised patients for critical illness has yet to be investigated in a large, multicentre study.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study including all hospitalised patients ≥18 years with EWS recorded at hospitals in the Central Denmark Region during the year 2016. The primary outcome was intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death within 2 days following an initial EWS. Prognostic accuracy was examined using sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV). Discriminative accuracy was examined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).ResultsAmong 97 332 evaluated patients, 1714 (1.8%) experienced the primary outcome. The qSOFA ≥2 was less sensitive (11.7% (95% CI: 10.2% to 13.3%) vs 25.1% (95% CI: 23.1% to 27.3%)) and more specific (99.3% (95% CI: 99.2% to 99.3%) vs 97.5% (95% CI: 97.4% to 97.6%)) than EWS ≥5. The NPV was similar for the two scores (EWS ≥5, 98.6% (95% CI: 98.6% to 98.7%) and qSOFA ≥2, 98.4% (95% CI: 98.3% to 98.5%)), while the PPV was 15.1% (95% CI: 13.8% to 16.5%) for EWS ≥5 and 22.4% (95% CI: 19.7% to 25.3%) for qSOFA ≥2. The AUROC was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.73) for EWS and 0.66 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.67) for qSOFA.ConclusionThe qSOFA was less sensitive (qSOFA ≥2 vs EWS ≥5) and discriminatively accurate than the EWS for predicting ICU admission and/or death within 2 days after an initial EWS. This study did not support replacing EWS with qSOFA in all hospitalised patients.

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Predictive Value of 5 Early Warning Scores for Critical COVID-19 Patients

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness ◽

10.1017/dmp.2020.324 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

Hai Hu ◽

Ni Yao ◽

Yanru Qiu

Keyword(s):

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽

Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽

Early Warning ◽

Predictive Value ◽

Operating Characteristic ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

Early Warning Scores ◽

Operating Characteristic Curve ◽

Receiver Operating

ABSTRACT Objectives: A simple evaluation tool for patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could assist the physicians to triage COVID-19 patients effectively and rapidly. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of 5 early warning scores based on the admission data of critical COVID-19 patients. Methods: Overall, medical records of 319 COVID-19 patients were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics on admission were used for calculating the Standardized Early Warning Score (SEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), National Early Warning Score2 (NEWS2), Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). Data on the outcomes (survival or death) were collected for each case and extracted for overall and subgroup analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the SEWS, NEWS, NEWS2, HEWS, and MEWS in predicting mortality were 0.841 (95% CI: 0.765-0.916), 0.809 (95% CI: 0.727-0.891), 0.809 (95% CI: 0.727-0.891), 0.821 (95% CI: 0.748-0.895), and 0.670 (95% CI: 0.573-0.767), respectively. Conclusions: SEWS, NEWS, NEWS2, and HEWS demonstrated moderate discriminatory power and, therefore, offer potential utility as prognostic tools for screening severely ill COVID-19 patients. However, MEWS is not a good prognostic predictor for COVID-19.

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Investigation into the predictive capability for mortality and the trigger points of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in emergency department patients

Emergency Medicine Journal ◽

10.1136/emermed-2020-210190 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. emermed-2020-210190

Author(s):

Huw Masson ◽

John Stephenson

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Trigger Point ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Trigger Points ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

Likelihood Ratios ◽

Male Sex ◽

National Early Warning Score ◽

Emergency Department Patients ◽

The Relationship

IntroductionNational Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is widely used to monitor and trigger assessment throughout a patient’s hospital journey. Since the development and role out of NEWS2, its ability to predict mortality has been assessed in several settings, although to date not within an undifferentiated ED population.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective observational study of all adult ED attendees at two EDs in Northern England, between March and November 2019. Multilevel multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted on patient episode data to assess the relationship between mortality at 2, 7 and 30 days from attendances; and maximum NEWS2, adjusting for age, sex, arrival mode and triage priority.ResultsData were collected from 91 871 valid patient episodes associated with 64 760 patients. NEWS2 was a significant predictor of mortality at 2 days (OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.58 to 1.93); at 7 days (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.80); at 30 days (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.52 to 1.64). For the analyses of categorised NEWS2, NEWS2 of 2–20 was significantly associated with mortality at 2, 7 and 30 days compared with none assigned: OR 3.54 (95% CI 2.15 to 5.85) at 2 days; OR 6.05 (95% CI 3.92 to 9.34) at 7 days; OR 12.4 (95% CI 7.91 to 19.3) at 30 days. Increasing age, male sex, arrival by ambulance and higher triage categories were also associated with significantly increased mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.963, 0.946 and 0.915, respectively, were recorded for mortality outcomes, with optimum likelihood ratios associated with a trigger of 4 NEWS2 points.ConclusionsNEWS2 is an effective predictor of mortality for patients presenting to the ED. Findings suggest that maximum NEWS2 of 4 and over may be the best trigger point for escalation of treatment. Findings also suggest a NEWS2 of 0–1 can identify a very low-risk group within the ED.

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Experiences of a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) intervention in care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative interview study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045469 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. e045469

Author(s):

Rachel Stocker ◽

Siân Russell ◽

Jennifer Liddle ◽

Robert O Barker ◽

Adam Remmer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Healthcare Professionals ◽

Care Home ◽

Qualitative Interview ◽

Interview Study ◽

Care Homes ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

Service Utilisation ◽

Qualitative Interview Study ◽

National Early Warning Score

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has taken a heavy toll on the care home sector, with residents accounting for up to half of all deaths in Europe. The response to acute illness in care homes plays a particularly important role in the care of residents during a pandemic. Digital recording of a National Early Warning Score (NEWS), which involves the measurement of physical observations, started in care homes in one area of England in 2016. Implementation of a NEWS intervention (including equipment, training and support) was accelerated early in the pandemic, despite limited evidence for its use in the care home setting.ObjectivesTo understand how a NEWS intervention has been used in care homes in one area of North-East England during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how it has influenced resident care, from the perspective of stakeholders involved in care delivery and commissioning.MethodsA qualitative interview study with care home (n=10) and National Health Service (n=7) staff. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.ResultsUse of the NEWS intervention in care homes in this area accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stakeholders felt that NEWS, and its associated education and support package, improved the response of care homes and healthcare professionals to deterioration in residents’ health during the pandemic. Healthcare professionals valued the ability to remotely monitor resident observations, which facilitated triage and treatment decisions. Care home staff felt empowered by NEWS, providing a common clinical language to communicate concerns with external services, acting as an adjunct to staff intuition of resident deterioration.ConclusionsThe NEWS intervention formed an important part of the care home response to COVID-19 in the study area. Positive staff perceptions now need to be supplemented with data on the impact on resident health and well-being, workload, and service utilisation, during the pandemic and beyond.

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Corrigendum to “Risk prediction using the National Early Warning Score and the Worthing Physiological Scoring System in patients who were transported to the Intensive Care Unit from the Emergency Department: A cohort study” [Intens. Crit. Care Nurs. 64 (2021) 103015]

Intensive and Critical Care Nursing ◽

10.1016/j.iccn.2021.103085 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 103085

Author(s):

Ying An ◽

Zi-Rong Tian ◽

Fei Li ◽

Ya-Mei Guan ◽

Zi-Feng Ma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Intensive Care Unit ◽

Emergency Department ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Risk Prediction ◽

Early Warning ◽

Scoring System ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

National Early Warning Score

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The Modified National Early Warning Score (m-NEWS) for COVID-19-Infected Patient Evaluation: a Proof-of-Concept

SN Comprehensive Clinical Medicine ◽

10.1007/s42399-020-00718-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Luca Galassi ◽

Daniele Schena

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Infected Patient ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

Patient Evaluation ◽

Proof Of Concept ◽

National Early Warning Score

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Use of the first National Early Warning Score recorded within 24 hours of admission to estimate the risk of in-hospital mortality in unplanned COVID-19 patients: a retrospective cohort study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043721 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. e043721

Author(s):

Donald Richardson ◽

Muhammad Faisal ◽

Massimo Fiori ◽

Kevin Beatson ◽

Mohammed Mohammed

Keyword(s):

Hospital Mortality ◽

Early Warning ◽

Absolute Risk ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Risk Of Mortality ◽

Baseline Mortality ◽

Acute Hospitals ◽

National Early Warning Score

ObjectivesAlthough the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its latest version NEWS2 are recommended for monitoring deterioration in patients admitted to hospital, little is known about their performance in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to compare the performance of the NEWS and NEWS2 in patients with COVID-19 versus those without during the first phase of the pandemic.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional study.SettingTwo acute hospitals (Scarborough and York) are combined into a single dataset and analysed collectively.ParticipantsAdult (≥18 years) non-elective admissions discharged between 11 March 2020 and 13 June 2020 with an index or on-admission NEWS2 electronically recorded within ±24 hours of admission to predict mortality at four time points (in-hospital, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours) in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 admissions.ResultsOut of 6480 non-elective admissions, 620 (9.6%) had a diagnosis of COVID-19. They were older (73.3 vs 67.7 years), more often male (54.7% vs 50.1%), had higher index NEWS (4 vs 2.5) and NEWS2 (4.6 vs 2.8) scores and higher in-hospital mortality (32.1% vs 5.8%). The c-statistics for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 admissions was significantly lower using NEWS (0.64 vs 0.74) or NEWS2 (0.64 vs 0.74), however, these differences reduced at 72hours (NEWS: 0.75 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.71 vs 0.81), 48 hours (NEWS: 0.78 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.76 vs 0.82) and 24hours (NEWS: 0.84 vs 0.84; NEWS2: 0.86 vs 0.84). Increasing NEWS2 values reflected increased mortality, but for any given value the absolute risk was on average 24% higher (eg, NEWS2=5: 36% vs 9%).ConclusionsThe index or on-admission NEWS and NEWS2 offers lower discrimination for COVID-19 admissions versus non-COVID-19 admissions. The index NEWS2 was not proven to be better than the index NEWS. For each value of the index NEWS/NEWS2, COVID-19 admissions had a substantially higher risk of mortality than non-COVID-19 admissions which reflects the increased baseline mortality risk of COVID-19.

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Glucose as an additional parameter to National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in prehospital setting enhances identification of patients at risk of death: an observational cohort study

Emergency Medicine Journal ◽

10.1136/emermed-2018-208309 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. emermed-2018-208309

Author(s):

Hanna Vihonen ◽

Mitja Lääperi ◽

Markku Kuisma ◽

Jussi Pirneskoski ◽

Jouni Nurmi

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Blood Glucose ◽

Regression Model ◽

Early Warning ◽

Prehospital Setting ◽

Early Warning Score ◽

Calibration Model ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

Patients At Risk ◽

National Early Warning Score

BackgroundTo determine if prehospital blood glucose could be added to National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for improved identification of risk of short-term mortality.MethodsRetrospective observational study (2008–2015) of adult patients seen by emergency medical services in Helsinki metropolitan area for whom all variables for calculation of NEWS and a blood glucose value were available. Survival of 24 hours and 30 days were determined. The NEWS parameters and glucose were tested by multivariate logistic regression model. Based on ORs we formed NEWSgluc model with hypoglycaemia (≤3.0 mmol/L) 3, normoglycaemia 0 and hyperglycaemia (≥11.1 mmol/L) 1 points. The scores from NEWS and NEWSgluc were compared using discrimination (area under the curve), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), likelihood ratio tests and reclassification (continuous net reclassification index (cNRI)).ResultsData of 27 141 patients were included in the study. Multivariable regression model for NEWSgluc parameters revealed a strong association with glucose disturbances and 24-hour and 30-day mortality. Likelihood ratios (LRs) for mortality at 24 hours using a cut-off point of 15 were for NEWSgluc: LR+ 17.78 and LR− 0.96 and for NEWS: LR+ 13.50 and LR− 0.92. Results were similar at 30 days. Risks per score point estimation and calibration model showed glucose added benefit to NEWS at 24 hours and at 30 days. Although areas under the curve were similar, reclassification test (cNRI) showed overall improvement of classification of survivors and non-survivors at 24 days and 30 days with NEWSgluc.ConclusionsIncluding glucose in NEWS in the prehospital setting seems to improve identification of patients at risk of death.

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