Study on Feasibility of Photovoltaic Power to Grid Parity in China Based on LCOE

Today, photovoltaic (PV) power generation accounts for a relatively small proportion of total power generation in China. If photovoltaic power can achieve grid parity, it can replace the original traditional thermal power generation, which has positive significance on the environment. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is the main general economic indicator for the evaluation of power generation technology in the world. Based on the traditional LCOE evaluation model and considering the shortcomings of the previous LCOE evaluation models, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is refined in this paper. The cost of the taxation with calculating the depreciation, the loss, and the income of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are taken into consideration. Hence, a more accurate and more comprehensive LCOE model is presented. Moreover, combined with other investment indicators, a photovoltaic power generation benefit model corresponding to the current development status is proposed. Taking a 3-MW distributed photovoltaic power station project in Nanjing as a case study, the sensitivity analysis of factors that affect the benefit of photovoltaic power generation is carried out to further explore the feasibility of photovoltaic power to grid parity.

The LCOE Evolution and Grid Parity Analysis of Centralized Solar Photovoltaic: A Case Study of Ningxia, China

Achieving grid parity in 2021 is the goal of China’s photovoltaic development, which is not only on the user side but also on the generation side. Relevant studies indicated that distributed PV has realized grid parity basically in China, while centralized PV, which belongs to the generation side, still has some difficulties in achieving grid parity. Therefore, this paper takes Ningxia Province, which is abundant in solar resources, as the research object and compares LCOE with the traditional coal-fired price to analyze the situation of grid parity of the Pingluo project. It is found that this project cannot reach the goal of grid parity. Then, the future evolution of the local LCOE is analyzed, so as to determine the time of grid parity of Ningxia’s centralized PV power stations. In the calculation of LCOE, the presence and absence of environmental benefits and the general and optimistic forecast of cumulative installed capacity are combined into four scenarios. The results show that the centralized PV in Ningxia cannot achieve grid parity in 2021 under the four scenarios. However, in addition to the scenario that there are no environmental benefits and the cumulative installed capacity is generally forecasted and will reach grid parity of the generation side in 2023, the other three situations can achieve the goal in 2022. Moreover, the LCOE value is the lowest under the scenario of considering environmental benefits and the optimistic forecast of future installed capacity.

Incentives for Renewable Energies in Colombia

This work analyses the potential effects of the incentives for renewable energies approved in Colombia by two main acts. A methodology involving adjustments for tax reductions and accelerated depreciation is used to evaluate the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for the four main clean energy resources available in Colombia. The results show important reductions in the LCOE specially, under the act approved in the development plan of the new government, where the LCOE of three technologies is below the grid parity.

Grid Parity Analysis of China’s Centralized Photovoltaic Generation under Multiple Uncertainties

The cost of centralized photovoltaic (CPV) power generation has been decreasing rapidly in China. However, the achievement of grid parity is full of uncertainties due to changes in policies and the industry environment. In order to explore the time, price, and external conditions in which grid parity can be achieved, we create the improved grey GM (1, 1) model to estimate the installed capacity over the next 10 years, and apply a learning curve to predict the cost of CPV generation. In the analysis of grid parity, we compare the benchmark price of coal power and the price under the market-oriented mechanism with CPV. The results show that China’s CPV industry will enter the early stage of maturity from 2020 onwards; with the help of benchmark investment, the grid parity of CPV may be achieved in 2022 at the earliest and 2025 at the latest. After 2025, the photovoltaic electricity price will be generally lower than the coal electricity price under marketization. By 2030, CPV power generation costs will reach US $0.05/kWh, the accumulative installed capacity will exceed 370 GW, and the uncertainties will lead to a cumulative installed gap of nearly 100 GW.