Spatio-temporal analysis of remote sensing images provides early warning signals of forest mortality

Ecosystems are under unprecedented pressures, reflected in rapid changes in the regime of disturbances that may cause negative impacts on them. This highlights the importance of characterizing the state of an ecosystem and its response to disturbances, which is known as a notoriously difficult task. The state-of-the-art knowledge has been tested rarely in real ecosystems for a number of reasons such as mismatches between the time scale of ecosystem processes and data accessibility as well as weaknesses in the performance of available methods. This study aims to use remotely sensed spatio-temporal data to identify early warning signals of forest mortality using satellite images. For this purpose, I propose a new approach that measures local spatial autocorrelation (using local Moran’s I and local Geary’s c method) at each time, which proved to produce robust results in multiple different study sites examined in this article. This new approach successfully generates early warning signals from time series of local spatial autocorrelation values in unhealthy study sites 2 years prior to forest mortality occurrence. Furthermore, I develop a new R package, called “stew”, that enables users to explore spatio-temporal analysis of ecosystem state changes. This work corroborates the suggestion that spatio-temporal indicators have the potential to diagnose early warning signals to identify upcoming climate-induced forest mortality, up to two years before its occurrence.

Tree Mortality: Testing the Link Between Drought, Embolism Vulnerability, and Xylem Conduit Diameter Remains a Priority

Global climate change-induced droughts are provoking events of forest mortality worldwide, with loss of tree biomass and consequent ecosystem services. Ameliorating the effects of drought requires understanding the causes of forest mortality, with failure of the hydraulic system being an important contributor. Comparative anatomical data strongly suggest that, all else being equal, wider conduits are more vulnerable to drought-induced embolism than narrow ones. However, physiology experiments do not provide consistent support for such a link. If a vulnerability-diameter link exists, though, it would contribute not only to explaining and predicting forest mortality but also to interventions to render individual trees more drought resistant. Given that xylem conduits scale with plant height, taller plants have wider conduits. If there is a vulnerability-diameter link, then this would help explain why taller plants are often more vulnerable to climate change-induced drought. Links between conduit diameter, plant height, and vulnerability would also provide guidance for standardizing sampling of hydraulic variables across individuals and suggest that selecting for relatively narrow conduits at given height from the tree top could produce more drought resistant varieties. As a result, given current ambiguities, together with the potential importance of a link, it is important to maintain the vulnerability-diameter link as a research priority.

Animal Forest Mortality: Following the Consequences of a Gorgonian Coral Loss on a Mediterranean Coralligenous Assemblage

In this work, the consequences of a local gorgonian coral mortality on the whole coralligenous assemblage were studied. A Before/After-Control/Impact sampling design was used: the structure of the coralligenous assemblage was compared before and after the gorgonian mortality event at the mortality site and two control sites. At the mortality site, a relevant decrease in alpha and beta diversity occurred, with a shift from a stratified assemblage characterized by gorgonians and other invertebrates to an assemblage dominated by algal turfs; conversely, neither significant variations of the structure nor decrease in biodiversity were observed at the control sites. The assemblage shift involved the main taxa in different times: in autumn 2018, a large proportion of the plexaurid coral Paramuricea clavata died, but no significant changes were observed in the structure of the remaining assemblage. Then, in autumn 2019, algal turfs increased significantly and, one year later, the abundance of the gorgonian Eunicella cavolini and bryozoans collapsed. Although the mechanisms of the assemblage shift following gorgonian loss will remain uncertain and a cause-effect relationship cannot be derived, results suggest the need for detecting signs of gorgonian forests stress in monitoring programs, which should be considered early indicators of their condition. in the coralligenous monitoring programs for detecting any sign of gorgonian forests stress which should be considered an early indicator of the assemblage condition.

Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe

Pulses of tree mortality caused by drought have been reported recently in forests around the globe, but large-scale quantitative evidence is lacking for Europe. Analyzing high-resolution annual satellite-based canopy mortality maps from 1987 to 2016 we here show that excess forest mortality (i.e., canopy mortality exceeding the long-term mortality trend) is significantly related to drought across continental Europe. The relationship between water availability and mortality showed threshold behavior, with excess mortality increasing steeply when the integrated climatic water balance from March to July fell below −1.6 standard deviations of its long-term average. For −3.0 standard deviations the probability of excess canopy mortality was 91.6% (83.8–97.5%). Overall, drought caused approximately 500,000 ha of excess forest mortality between 1987 and 2016 in Europe. We here provide evidence that drought is an important driver of tree mortality at the continental scale, and suggest that a future increase in drought could trigger widespread tree mortality in Europe.