Peat Carbon Vulnerability to Projected Climate Warming in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada: A Decision Support Tool for Land Use Planning in Peatland Dominated Landscapes

Peatlands help regulate climate by sequestering (net removal) carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in plants and soils. However, as mean annual air temperature (MAAT) increases, peat carbon stocks may decrease. We conducted an in-depth synthesis of current knowledge about ecosystem controls on peatland carbon storage and fluxes to constrain the most influential parameters in probabilistic modelling of peat carbon sinks, such as Bayesian belief networks. Evaluated parameters included climate, carbon flux and mass, land cover, landscape position (defined here as elevation), fire records, and current and future climate scenarios for a 74,300 km2 landscape in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada. The Bayesian belief network was constructed with four tiers: 1) exposure, expressed as MAAT, and the state variables of elevation and land cover; 2) sensitivity, expressed as ecosystem conditions relevant to peat carbon mass and its quality for decomposition, peat wetness, and fire; 3) carbon dioxide and methane fluxes and peat combustion; and 4) vulnerability of peat carbon sink strength under warmer MAAT. Simulations were conducted using current (−3.0 to 0.0°C), moderately warmer (0.1–4.0°C), and severely warmer (4.1–9.0°C) climate scenarios. Results from the severely warmer climate scenario projected an overall drying of peat, with approximately 20% reduction in the strong sink categories of net ecosystem exchange and peat carbon sink strength for the severely and, to a lesser degree, the moderately warmer climate scenarios relative to current MAAT. In the warmest temperature simulation, probability of methane emission decreased slightly and the probability of the strong peat carbon sink strength was 27% lower due to peat combustion. Our Bayesian belief network can assist land planners in decision-making for peatland-dominated landscapes, such as identifying high carbon storage areas and those projected to be at greatest risk of carbon loss due to climate change. Such areas may be designated, for example, as protected or reduced management intensity. The Bayesian belief network presented here is built on an in-depth knowledge synthesis to construct conditional probability tables, so is expected to apply to other peatland-dense jurisdictions by changing only elevation, peatland types, and MAAT.

Ecohydrological controls on apparent rates of peat carbon accumulation in a boreal bog record from the Hudson Bay Lowlands, northern Ontario, Canada

A multiproxy Holocene record from a bog in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, northern Ontario, Canada, was used to evaluate how ecohydrology relates to carbon accumulation. The study site is located at a somewhat higher elevation and on coarser grained deposits than the surrounding peatlands. This promotes better drainage and thus a slower rate of carbon accumulation relative to sites with similar initiation age. The rate of peat vertical accretion was initially low as the site transitioned from a marsh to a rich fen. These lower rates took place during the warmer temperatures of the Holocene thermal maximum, confirming the importance of hydrological controls limiting peat accretion at the local scale. Testate amoebae, pollen, and plant macrofossils indicate a transition to a poor fen and then a bog during the late Holocene, as the carbon accumulation rate and reconstructed water table depth increased. The bacterial membrane lipid biomarker indices used to infer paleotemperature show a summer temperature bias and appear sensitive to changes in peat type. The bacterial membrane lipid biomarker pH proxy indicates a rich to a poor fen and a subsequent fen to bog transition, which are supported by pollen, macrofossil, and testate amoeba records.

The Canadian Water Resource Vulnerability Index to Permafrost Thaw (CWRVIPT)

This study developed and applied a framework for assessing the vulnerability of pan-Canadian water resources to permafrost thaw. The national-scale work addresses a key, but neglected, information gap, as previous research has focused on small scale physical processes and circumpolar trends. The framework was applied to develop the Canadian Water Resources Vulnerability Index to Permafrost Thaw (CWRVIPT) and map the index across the Canadian North. The CWRVIPT is a linearly additive index of permafrost, terrain, disturbance, and climatic conditions and stressors that influence water budgets and aquatic chemistry. Initial results imply water resources in the western Northwest Territories and Hudson Bay Lowlands are most vulnerable to permafrost thaw; however, water resources on Banks, Victoria and Baffin Islands are also relatively vulnerable. Although terrain and permafrost sub-indices are the largest component of the CWRVIPT across a wide swath from the Mackenzie River Delta to the Hudson Bay Lowlands, the climate sub-index is most important farther north over parts of the southern portion of the Arctic Archipelago. The index can be used to identify areas of water resource vulnerability on which to focus observation and research in the Canadian North.

Linking testate amoeba assemblages to paleohydrology and ecosystem function in Holocene peat records from the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Canada

Peat cores from boreal bog and fen sites in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Northern Ontario, Canada, were analysed to calculate Holocene carbon accumulation rates, and to show how testate amoeba taxonomic assemblages, inferred depths to water table, and four morpho-traits that may be linked to function (mixotrophy, aperture size, aperture position, and biovolume) changed since peatland initiation. Carbon accumulation rates were on average higher for the Holocene in the fen record (19.4 g C m−2 yr−1) in comparison with the bog record (15.7 g C m−2 yr−1), which underwent a fen-to-bog transition around 6900 cal yr BP. Changes in rates of carbon accumulation were most strongly driven by changes in rates of peat vertical accretion, with more rapid rates in the fen record. Carbon accumulation rates were highest following peatland initiation when reconstructed water tables were highest, and in the late Holocene, when water table positions were variable. Taxa with larger biovolumes and apertures were generally more abundant when reconstructed water tables were higher, most notably following peatland initiation. Mixotrophic taxa were more prevalent in drier conditions and in the bog record. Changing frequencies of morpho-traits suggest that testate amoebae may occupy a higher trophic position in the microbial food web during wetter periods, signaling the possibility of internal feedbacks between peatland ecohydrology and critical ecosystem functions including long-term carbon accumulation.