Ocean climate connectivity and the future range shifts of marine biodiversity.

Shifting distribution to track suitable climate is a potential strategy for marine species to cope with ocean warming. Yet, the ability of species to successfully reach future climate analogs largely depends on the length of the paths that connect them, and on the exposure of these paths to extreme climates during this transition. Here, we evaluate marine climate connectivity for trajectories between climatic analogs on a global scale. We find that while movement between climatic analogs is more intense in the northern seas of the planet, they require longer trajectories to reach climatic analogs, with high climatic exposure to extreme conditions. On the contrary, the southern seas host areas that have closer climatic analogs, further subjected to a lower exposure to dissimilar climates. These patterns are mirrored in the connectivity properties of the global marine protected areas, highlighting sites which might fail to facilitate connectivity to future climates. Our results suggest that potential shifts between climatic analogs might be subjected to more limitations than those suggested by previous studies, with marine connectivity offering novel insights for the establishment of climate-wise conservation future networks.

Extensive variation in feather ornaments of Whiskered Auklets in the Aleutian Islands reflects age, sex, condition, and geography

Both sexes of Whiskered Auklets (Aethia pygmaea) display the most elaborate feather ornaments of any seabird: a slender black forehead crest, and 3 bilaterally symmetrical pairs of white facial plumes (superorbital, suborbital, and auricular). We studied patterns of ornament variation in 796 banded individuals (147 of known sex, 254 of known age from 1 to 16 years) during 1992–2009 at Buldir Island (principally), and 3 other Aleutian Islands (Davidof, Ulak, and Egg) in Alaska, USA. As expected for socially selected traits, ornaments were more variable across individuals than anatomical traits in size but with only slightly male-biased sexual dimorphism. Body condition index increased from age 1 to 3 years but changed little thereafter. Even within birds ≥4 years old, ornament size was positively related to body condition index. Subadults (one-year-olds) had smaller ornaments than adults (age 2–16 years) but there was no further change in ornament size as adults aged and no evidence of senescence even in the oldest birds (>8 years old). Nonetheless, overall ornament size varied from year-to-year at Buldir and was correlated with indices of both ocean climate and auklet productivity in the preceding 2–5 years. From Buldir to Egg Island (1,266 km), the size of both anatomical and ornamental traits increased by 5–15% except for bill depth, which was largest in birds from Buldir and Egg at opposite ends of the Aleutian breeding range. This study is one of few to examine patterns of ornament variation in a long-lived, socially monogamous bird, even though such patterns are crucial to understanding the relationship between sexual selection and life history.

Gateway-driven weakening of ocean gyres leads to Southern Ocean cooling

Declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations are considered the primary driver for the Cenozoic Greenhouse-Icehouse transition, ~34 million years ago. A role for tectonically opening Southern Ocean gateways, initiating the onset of a thermally isolating Antarctic Circumpolar Current, has been disputed as ocean models have not reproduced expected heat transport to the Antarctic coast. Here we use high-resolution ocean simulations with detailed paleobathymetry to demonstrate that tectonics did play a fundamental role in reorganising Southern Ocean circulation patterns and heat transport, consistent with available proxy data. When at least one gateway (Tasmanian or Drake) is shallow (300 m), gyres transport warm waters towards Antarctica. When the second gateway subsides below 300 m, these gyres weaken and cause a dramatic cooling (average of 2–4 °C, up to 5 °C) of Antarctic surface waters whilst the ACC remains weak. Our results demonstrate that tectonic changes are crucial for Southern Ocean climate change and should be carefully considered in constraining long-term climate sensitivity to CO2.

Global Ocean Climate Change: Observing From Ships

Have you stood on the beach or crossed the ocean on a plane, wondered at the enormous size of the ocean, and possibly thought about how it regulates our climate? Or how our climate is changing? Or what harm our extra carbon dioxide and heat are causing to life in the ocean? The oceans take up heat from the atmosphere and sun, they change their saltiness as they are either evaporated or rained on, and they exchange gases with the atmosphere, including some of the extra carbon dioxide that humans add to the atmosphere. Ocean currents and mixing carry heat and carbon for tens to hundreds of years, and as they move heat and carbon around, the currents alter the atmosphere above. We only have this knowledge because we have been observing the ocean from ships for a century, adding satellites, and drifting instruments in the last few decades.

An Overview of Ocean Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature, Ocean Heat Content, Ocean pH, Dissolved Oxygen Concentration, Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Thickness and Volume, Sea Level and Strength of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)

Global ocean physical and chemical trends are reviewed and updated using seven key ocean climate change indicators: (i) Sea Surface Temperature, (ii) Ocean Heat Content, (iii) Ocean pH, (iv) Dissolved Oxygen concentration (v) Arctic Sea Ice extent, thickness, and volume (vi) Sea Level and (vii) the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The globally averaged ocean surface temperature shows a mean warming trend of 0.062 ± 0.013°C per decade over the last 120 years (1900–2019). During the last decade (2010–2019) the rate of ocean surface warming has accelerated to 0.280 ± 0.068°C per decade, 4.5 times higher than the long term mean. Ocean Heat Content in the upper 2,000 m shows a linear warming rate of 0.35 ± 0.08 Wm–2 in the period 1955–2019 (65 years). The warming rate during the last decade (2010–2019) is twice (0.70 ± 0.07 Wm–2) the warming rate of the long term record. Each of the last six decades have been warmer than the previous one. Global surface ocean pH has declined on average by approximately 0.1 pH units (from 8.2 to 8.1) since the industrial revolution (1770). By the end of this century (2100) ocean pH is projected to decline additionally by 0.1–0.4 pH units depending on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) future scenario. The time of emergence of the pH climate change signal varies from 8 to 15 years for open ocean sites, and 16–41 years for coastal sites. Global dissolved oxygen levels have decreased by 4.8 petamoles or 2% in the last 5 decades, with profound impacts on local and basin scale habitats. Regional trends are varying due to multiple processes impacting dissolved oxygen: solubility change, respiration changes, ocean circulation changes and multidecadal variability. Arctic sea ice extent has been declining by −13.1% per decade in summer (September) and by −2.6% per decade in winter (March) during the last 4 decades (1979–2020). The combined trends of sea ice extent and sea ice thickness indicate that the volume of non-seasonal Arctic Sea Ice has decreased by 75% since 1979. Global mean sea level has increased in the period 1993–2019 (the altimetry era) at a mean rate of 3.15 ± 0.3 mm year–1 and is experiencing an acceleration of ∼ 0.084 (0.06–0.10) mm year–2. During the last century (1900–2015; 115y) global mean sea level (GMSL) has rised 19 cm, and near 40% of that GMSL rise has taken place since 1993 (22y). Independent proxies of the evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) indicate that AMOC is at its weakest for several hundreds of years and has been slowing down during the last century. A final visual summary of key ocean climate change indicators during the recent decades is provided.