Determinants of Bicyclist Injury Severity Resulting from Crashes at Roundabouts, Crossroads, and T-Junctions

This study explores the contributing factors that influence bicyclist injury severity at three types of intersection: roundabouts, crossroads, and T-junctions. Using bicycle-involved crash data in the UK over nine years (from 2009 to 2017), the bicyclist injury severity (with three severity levels: fatal injury, serious injury, and slight injury) was estimated using the generalized ordered logit (GOL) model and partial proportional odds (PPO) model. The marginal effects of each explanatory variable were computed to investigate the impacts on bicyclist injury severity occurring probabilities. A wide range of variables potentially affecting injury severity was considered, including bicyclist characteristics, intersection characteristics, environmental conditions, bicyclist movement and location preceding the crash, and types of collisions. Our findings show that the PPO model outperforms the GOL model for analyzing the factors that affect the bicyclist injury severity at intersections. The factors that affect cycling safety at various intersections show enormous differences. Specifically, nine variables have significant impacts on bicyclist injury severity at those three types of intersections. And there are only two variables, four variables, and eleven variables that have significant impact on bicyclist injury severity at roundabouts, crossroads, and T-junctions, respectively. The findings of this study can help decision makers better understand the spatial heterogeneity of the factors that influence the bicyclist injury severity at various intersections.

Investigating the Impacts of Real-Time Weather Conditions on Freeway Crash Severity: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis

This study presents an empirical investigation of the impacts of real-time weather conditions on the freeway crash severity. A Bayesian spatial generalized ordered logit model was developed for modeling the crash severity using the hourly wind speed, air temperature, precipitation, visibility, and humidity, as well as other observed factors. A total of 1424 crash records from Kaiyang Freeway, China in 2014 and 2015 were collected for the investigation. The proposed model can simultaneously accommodate the ordered nature in severity levels and spatial correlation across adjacent crashes. Its strength is demonstrated by the existence of significant spatial correlation and its better model fit and more reasonable estimation results than the counterparts of a generalized ordered logit model. The estimation results show that an increase in the precipitation is associated with decreases in the probabilities of light and severe crashes, and an increase in the probability of medium crashes. Additionally, driver type, vehicle type, vehicle registered province, crash time, crash type, response time of emergency medical service, and horizontal curvature and vertical grade of the crash location, were also found to have significant effects on the crash severity. To alleviate the severity levels of crashes on rainy days, some engineering countermeasures are suggested, in addition to the implemented strategies.

Analysis Of Risk for Class Shifting And Determinants of BPJS Kesehatan Membership Using Generalized Ordered Logit-Unconstrained Partial Proportional Odds Model

The main source of funding of BPJS Kesehatan comes from the different premium class in which the participant registered. The medical benefits among classes are equivalent, except inpatient facilities. But when the improvement health degree is not linear with the incurred costs, problem would arise. This study aims to analyze class shifting and determinants of BPJS Kesehatan mem- bership. Around 1.53 percent of participants access higher classes, while 5.62 percent access lower classes. Class III participants with inpatient status severity level 2 and 3, reaching 41% and 43%, respectively. In addition, 60% of non-PBI participants are Class II premium participants; most of them are male, productive age, and workers. This research using Generalized Ordered Log- it-Unconstrained Partial Proportional Odds Model concludes that participants who are married tend to choose higher premium class. Whereas productive age participants and a worker is in the lower premium class. The recommendation is the evaluation of membership based on class premium contributions considering potential participants (productive age and workers) who tend should be conducted in a lower class. Although mutual assistance is the principle of National Health Insurance, specific mechanisms should be established to examine the relation of age and health status to each participant regarding the difference in the registered class, besides their economic factors. Abstrak Pendanaan utama BPJS Kesehatan adalah iuran peserta yang besarnya tergantung dari kelas premi yang didaftarkan peser- ta. Manfaat medis setiap kelas adalah setara kecuali fasilitas ruang inap. Di sisi lain, hal ini dapat menimbulkan permasalahan ketika derajat kesehatan tidak linier dengan biaya yang seharusnya dikeluarkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat per- bedaan antara kelas premi saat peserta mengakses pelayanan kesehatan dengan kelas premi yang didaftarkan. Ditemukan 1,53 persen peserta mengakses kelas lebih tinggi dibanding kelas yang terdaftar, dan 5,62 persen peserta yang mengakses kelas lebih rendah dibanding kelas yang terdaftar. Berdasarkan tingkat keparahan saat menjalani rawat inap, diketahui bah- wa peserta kelas III dengan status rawat inap tingkat keparahan 3 (berat) dan 2 (sedang) masing-masing mencapai 41% dan 43%. Selain itu hampir 60 persen peserta yang membayar iuran sesuai dengan ketentuan yang ditetapkan (non PBI) adalah peserta iuran premi Kelas II yang sebagian besar merupakan peserta laki-laki, berusia produktif, dan berstatus sebagai pekerja. Hasil analisis dengan metode Generalized Ordered Logit-Unconstrained Partial Proportional Odds Model disimpulkan bahwa peserta berstatus kawin cenderung berada pada kelas premi yang lebih tinggi. Sedangkan peserta usia produktif serta peserta dengan status pekerja cenderung berada pada kelas premi yang lebih rendah. Rekomendasi yang diberikan adalah evaluasi kepesertaan berdasarkan iuran premi kelas dapat dilakukan kembali mengingat peserta potensial (usia produktif dan berstatus sebagai pekerja) cenderung berada pada kelas yang lebih rendah. Selain itu meskipun asas gotong royong menjadi prinsip pelaksanaan Program JKN, namun sebaiknya dapat dibuat mekanisme tertentu agar dapat dicermati terkait dengan faktor usia dan derajad kesehatan peserta terhadap perbedaan kelas premi peserta yang didaftarkan tanpa mengabaikan kemampuan ekonomi yang bersangkutan.

Welfare Chauvinism, Economic Insecurity and the Asylum Seeker “Crisis”

Immigration has been a major trend in the last decades in Europe. However, immigrant access to the social security systems has remained a contentious issue having gained additional salience in light of the recent asylum-seeking developments. We focus on welfare chauvinism, the idea that immigrants should not participate in welfare resources, as an attitudinal dimension. We seek to answer two primary questions: To what extent are different types of objective and subjective material deprivation related to welfare chauvinism? What is the role of the recent asylum seeker influx? Using European Social Survey data and employing binary and generalized ordered logit models with country fixed effects, we find perceptions of deprivation to be more meaningful than objective factors related to potential job loss, and some relationships depend on the specific type of deprivation. On the country level, in line with the deservingness of asylum seekers as a group, higher levels of asylum seeking are related to lower levels of welfare chauvinism, while GDP per capita is not associated with welfare chauvinism. Finally, the generalized ordered logit model shows that some relationships vary according to the strictness of welfare chauvinism, which would not be visible in a conventional ordered logit model.