BORROWING ALTERNATIVES FOR HOUSEHOLDS IN LITHUANIA: CURRENT SITUATION, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

Purpose – to analyse the main borrowing alternatives available to Lithuanian households and the credit market as a whole, focusing on its peer-to-peer (P2P) segment, the forecast of its growth, and possible challenges. Research methodology – the research methods applied were scientific literature analysis, statistical data analysis, comparative analysis, correlation-regression analysis, linear trend forecasting method. Findings – the prevailing borrowing alternative for Lithuanian households still remain bank credits. Besides, borrowing from P2P market is becoming more and more popular. Although the macroeconomic environment for all the credit market segments is the same, the P2P segment is developing significantly faster. If this trend remains unchanged, the whole credit market is likely to face challenges, such as the growth of overdue loans, insolvent customers, the rising share of non-performing-loans (NPL), etc., that may affect its overall stability. Research limitations – the empirical study relies on the country’s macroeconomic indicators that influence household borrowing. Such factors as borrower’s age, income level, marital status and others were not taken into account in this study. The forecast of the P2P segment growth of the consumer credit market and comparison with its banking segment is based on the analysis of 4 years of real monthly statistics for both segments. Practical implications – the performed analysis and its results can be useful for the future research within the household borrowing trends, especially in Peer-to-Peer platforms, and specifically for the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and other institutions that regulate the credit market, as it provides information on modern borrowing trends and the challenges it might bring. Also, for P2P platforms themselves, planning and further developing their activities and adjusting lending conditions with the aim to attract higher-quality customers. Originality/Value – household borrowing, the credit market and the P2P platforms are widely analysed by both academics and financial institutions, such as central banks. However, it is mainly limited to the analysis of statistical data and does not pay attention to possible market development issues. This study focuses on the analysis of the growth trends of the P2P market and the potential challenges that may arise thereafter.

Do social interactions matter for borrowing behaviour of the Europeans aged 50+?

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the linkage between households' social interactions and credit context and how these interactions may influence household borrowing decisions.Design/methodology/approachBased on a sample of 45,907 individuals referred to 18 countries, drawn from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, different probit regressions are used to test the four hypotheses proposed.FindingsEmpirical evidence confirms that intensive and extensive sociability are positively related to consumer debt holding. However, when social activities are considered separately, there is weak evidence that they are also related to mortgage debt holding and over-indebtedness. Moreover, at this level of analysis, the different nature of the social activities in which the individual participates in may condition the relationship with borrowing behaviour. The findings also show that relative income plays a passive role in household borrowing behaviour, since low-income households are more likely to hold mortgage and informal loans or to be over-indebted in highly indebted countries.Originality/valueFirst, this paper extends the knowledge of the relationship between social interactions and borrowing behaviour by considering not only the intensity and diversity of the social activities in which the individual participates, but also the different nature of these activities. Second, it proposes that social interactions may play a passive role on borrowing decision, suggesting that household's behaviour might be passively affected by the density of borrowers surrounding it. To the best of our knowledge, there has not been any attempt to test this issue regarding household borrowing decisions. Third, unlike the few empirical papers on the topic, the paper also analyses previous issues by distinguishing between different types of debts; a distinction that revels the different role played by social interactions.

Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity

Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation.

Varieties of capitalism, increasing income inequality and the sustainability of long-run growth

We model US household debt accumulation during the neoliberal boom (1990–2007) as a response to emulation effects and the decline of the social wage, which has ‘privatised’ an increasing share of the costs of providing for services such as health and education. The debt dynamics of the US economy are then studied under alternative assumptions about the configuration of distributional variables, which is shown to differ across varieties of capitalism that have ‘neoliberalised’ to different degrees. A key result is that distributional change alone will not make contemporary US capitalism financially sustainable due, in part, to the paradoxical nature of inequality as a spur to household borrowing, and hence a source of both demand-formation and financial fragility. Achieving sustainability requires, instead, more wide-ranging reform.

Republic of Kazakhstan

The political transition has increased the focus on social conditions and regional and rural development. Growth has been buoyed by new spending, retail credit, and oil and gas investments. Inflation has picked up, and the current account has deteriorated. Renewed fiscal consolidation is planned from 2020. Non-oil growth is expected to moderate to 4 percent (potential), as construction, fiscal stimulus, and household borrowing ease. Growth could be higher if decisive reforms drive productivity gains. The state continues to play a strong role in the economy, and the authorities face challenges ensuring that measures are well targeted and effective in promoting private sector growth. The challenges include oil volatility and dependency, reliance on subsidies and other state support, still-impaired banks, and governance vulnerabilities. The authorities are exploring ways to strengthen the fiscal framework, assessing monetary and exchange policies, undertaking a bank asset quality review (AQR), and establishing an independent financial sector regulator. Progress is being made on headline reforms, but ensuring decisive changes on the ground remains a challenge. Risks relate to oil prices and trading partner growth.

Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data

Using household-level debt data over 2000–2012 and local variation in inequality, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions (zip codes, counties, states) accumulated less debt relative to their income than low-income households in lower inequality regions. We also find evidence that low-income households face higher credit prices and reduced access to credit as inequality increases. We argue that these patterns are consistent with inequality tilting credit supply away from low-income households and toward high-income households, which may have long-run implications for outcomes like homeownership or entrepreneurship.

China’s Rising Household Debt: A New Debt Trap?

Household debt in China has risen rapidly in recent years, mostly driven by mortgages but also by ongoing financial deepening and liberalisation which facilitate economic rebalancing towards more consumption. Although the risks to financial stability do not seem large at the time of writing, the sharp rise in household debt has raised some concerns, as high household borrowing could increase macro-financial risks, particularly given the US-China trade tensions and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has resulted in weaker employment and export market. Rising household debt will add to medium- to long-term challenges for China’s domestic consumption and the financial sector. The authorities have so far implemented measures to lessen the risk of a sharp housing correction in the short-run.