Wave-triggered breakup in the marginal ice zone generates lognormal floe size distributions

Fragmentation of the sea ice cover by ocean waves is an important mechanism impacting ice evolution. Fractured ice is more sensitive to melt, leading to a local reduction in ice concentration, facilitating wave propagation. A positive feedback loop, accelerating sea ice retreat, is then introduced. Despite recent efforts to incorporate this process and the resulting floe size distribution (FSD) into the sea ice components of global climate models (GCM), the physics governing ice breakup under wave action remains poorly understood, and its parametrisation highly simplified. We propose a two-dimensional numerical model of wave-induced sea ice breakup to estimate the FSD resulting from repeated fracture events. This model, based on linear water wave theory and viscoelastic sea ice rheology, solves for the scattering of an incoming time-harmonic wave by the ice cover and derives the corresponding strain field. Fracture occurs when the strain exceeds an empirical threshold. The geometry is then updated for the next iteration of the breakup procedure. The resulting FSD is analysed for both monochromatic and polychromatic forcings. For the latter results, FSDs obtained for discrete frequencies are combined appropriately following a prescribed wave spectrum. We find that under realistic wave forcing, lognormal FSDs emerge consistently in a large variety of model configurations. Care is taken to evaluate the statistical significance of this finding. This result contrasts with the power-law FSD behaviour often assumed by modellers. We discuss the properties of these modelled distributions, with respect to the ice rheological properties and the forcing waves. The projected output will be used to improve empirical parametrisations used to couple sea ice and ocean waves GCM components.

Experience in developing a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Experience in developing a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Tricentennial trends in spring ice breakups in three rivers in northern Europe

In Finland, ice breakup observations have been recorded for centuries for Aura River (1749–2020), Torne River (1693–2020) and Kokemäki River (1793–2020). The Kokemäki River is a newly revised, extended, and updated ice breakup series from Pori. The Spearman analysis shows that the correlation between Aura and Kokemäki rivers is strong, while the correlation between the two southern rivers (Aura and Kokemäki) and Torne River is weaker. The difference is attributed to the longitudinal distance between the rivers. Temperature correlations are strong for all three rivers and the long-term trends towards earlier breakups are statistically significant. Aura and Kokemäki rivers show considerable changes. Aura and Kokemäki river have had two respectively three years without a complete ice cover in the 21st century. These are the first non-freeze events in over 270 years of recorded observations. In Torne River, however, the earliest recorded breakup date has changed only marginally the last 100 years. Moreover, the earliest recorded breakup date in the 21st century occurred only five days earlier than the earliest breakup date in the 18th century. Kokemäki River did not escape the hydroelectric power plant boom in the mid-1900s, and this has speeded up the breakup process. A qualitative analysis shows that exceptionally late ice breakups occurred in all three rivers in 1807, 1810 and 1867. There are noticeable clusters of late events in the early 1800s in all three series, while an exceptionally early breakup event occurred in Aura and Kokemäki rivers in 1822.

Iñupiaq Knowledge of Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

Successful wildlife management depends upon coordination and consultation with local communities. However, much of the research used to inform management is often derived solely from data collected directly from wildlife. Indigenous people living in the Arctic have a close connection to their environment, which provides unique opportunities to observe their environment and the ecology of Arctic species. Further, most northern Arctic communities occur within the range of polar bears (nanuq, Ursus maritimus) and have experienced significant climatic changes. Here, we used semi-structured interviews from 2017 to 2019 to document Iñupiaq knowledge of polar bears observed over four decades in four Alaskan communities in the range of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation: Wainwright, Utqiaġvik, Nuiqsut, and Kaktovik. All but one of 47 participants described directional and notable changes in sea ice, including earlier ice breakup, later ice return, thinner ice, and less multiyear pack ice. These changes corresponded with observations of bears spending more time on land during the late summer and early fall in recent decades—observations consistent with scientific and Indigenous knowledge studies in Alaska, Canada, and Greenland. Participants noted that polar bear and seal body condition and local abundance either varied geographically or exhibited no patterns. However, participants described a recent phenomenon of bears being exhausted and lethargic when arriving on shore in the summer and fall after extensive swims from the pack ice. Further, several participants suggested that maternal denning is occurring more often on land than sea ice. Participants indicated that village and regional governments are increasingly challenged to obtain resources needed to keep their communities safe as polar bears spend more time on land, an issue that is likely to be exacerbated both in this region and elsewhere as sea ice loss continues.

Driving mechanisms of an extreme winter sea-ice breakup event in the Beaufort Sea

The thick multi-year sea ice that once covered large parts of the Arctic Ocean is being replaced by thinner and weaker first-year ice, making it increasingly vulnerable to breakup by storms. Here we use a sea ice model to investigate the driving mechanisms behind a large sea-ice breakup event in the Beaufort Sea in response to a series of storms during February–March 2013.These simulations are the first to successfully reproduce the timing, location and propagation of sea-ice leads associated with storm-induced breakup. We found that rheology in the sea-ice model and horizontal resolution in the atmospheric model are both crucial in accurately simulating such breakup events. The sensitivity of the breakup to the initial sea-ice thickness indicates that large breakup events will become more frequent as Arctic sea ice continues to thin. Here we show that large breakup events during winter have a significant impact on ice growth through enhanced air-sea fluxes in open leads, and enhanced drift speeds which increase the export of old, thick ice out of the Beaufort Sea. Overall, this results in a thinner and weaker ice cover that may precondition earlier breakup in spring and accelerate sea-ice loss.

Effects of River-Ice Breakup on Sediment Transport and Implications to Stream Environments: A Review

During the breakup of river ice covers, a greater potential for erosion occurs due to rising discharge and moving ice and the highly dynamic waves that form upon ice-jam release. Consequently, suspended-sediment concentrations can increase sharply and peak before the arrival of the peak flow. Large spikes in sediment concentrations occasionally occur during the passage of sharp waves resulting from releases of upstream ice jams and the ensuing ice runs. This is important, as river form and function (both geomorphologic and ecological) depend upon sediment erosion and deposition. Yet, sediment monitoring programs often overlook the higher suspended-sediment concentrations and loads that occur during the breakup period owing to data-collection difficulties in the presence of moving ice and ice jams. In this review paper, we introduce basics of river sediment erosion and transport and of relevant phenomena that occur during the breakup of river ice. Datasets of varying volume and detail on measured and inferred suspended-sediment concentrations during the breakup period on different rivers are reviewed and compared. Possible effects of river characteristics on seasonal sediment supply are discussed, and the implications of increased sediment supply are reviewed based on seasonal comparisons. The paper also reviews the environmental significance of increased sediment supply both on water quality and ecosystem functionality.