Risky Therefore Not Beneficial: Replication and Extension of Finucane et al.’s (2000) Affect Heuristic Experiment

Risks and benefits are negatively related in people’s minds. Finucane et al. causally demonstrated that increasing risks of a hazard leads people to judge its benefits as lower. Vice versa, increasing benefits leads people to judge its risks as lower (original: r = −.74 [−0.92, −0.30]). This finding is consistent with an affective explanation, and the negative relationship is often presented as evidence for an affect heuristic. In two well-powered studies, using a more stringent analytic strategy, we replicated the original finding. We observed a strong negative relationship between judgments of risks and benefits across three technologies, although we do find that there was no change in risks when highlighting low benefits. We note that risks seem to be more responsive to manipulation (as opposed to benefits) and find evidence that the negative relationship can depend on incidental mood. We provided materials, data sets, and analyses on https://osf.io/sufjn/?view_only=6f8f5dc6ff524149a4ed5c6de9296ae8 .

The inverse relation between risks and benefits: The impact of individual differences in information processing style

Existing research shows that evaluations of the risks and benefits of various hazards (i.e., technologies and activities) are inversely related. The affect heuristic explains the negative relation between risks and benefits, as based on the strength of positive or negative affect associated with a hazard. Research on the affect heuristic previously investigated under which conditions people judge risk and benefits independently, focusing on expertise as a factor that might exempt from inversely related judgements of risk and benefits. Measurements within Dual Process Theories have been found to be associated with rational, analytical decision making and accurate judgments. In this paper we investigated the extent to which rational information processing styles can predict the risk-benefit relation of technologies in a medical and food applications and whether the attitudes influence the strength or direction of the relationship. Using the Need for Cognition Scale (NFC), a psychometric-based risk scale and an explicit measure of attitude, in a representative sample of 3228 Swedes, we found that the high NFC group judged the risks and benefits of technologies to be inversely related. In contrast, the low NFC group judged the risks and benefits to be positively related. These results were confirmed across all studied technologies by applying moderation analysis. We discuss the results in light of recent research on cognitive processing and polarization over technologies’ risks.

Investigating the Neural Correlates of the Affect Heuristic Using Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging

This study investigated the neural correlates of the so-called “affect heuristic,” which refers to the phenomenon whereby individuals tend to rely on affective states rather than rational deliberation of utility and probabilities during judgments of risk and utility of a given event or scenario. The study sought to explore whether there are shared regional activations during both judgments of relative risk and relative benefit of various scenarios, thus being a potential candidate of the affect heuristic. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we developed a novel risk perception task, based on a preexisting behavioral task assessing the affect heuristic. A whole-brain voxel-wise analysis of a sample of participants (n = 42) during the risk and benefit conditions revealed overlapping clusters in the left insula, left inferior frontal gyrus, and left medial frontal gyrus across conditions. Extraction of parameter estimates of these clusters revealed that activity of these regions during both tasks was inversely correlated with a behavioral measure assessing the inclination to use the affect heuristic. More activity in these areas during risk judgments reflect individuals' ability to disregard momentary affective impulses. The insula may be involved in integrating viscero-somatosensory information and forming a representation of the current emotional state of the body, whereas activity in the left inferior frontal gyrus and medial frontal gyrus indicates that executive processes may be involved in inhibiting the impulse of making judgments in favor of deliberate risk evaluations.

How Miners and Other Professional Groups Perceive the Benefits and Risks of Hard Coal Mining: A Study on the Role of the Affect Heuristic

The problems that are inherent in the green shift of the energy sectors are particularly visible in countries where the hard coal mining industry plays an important role in the economy and society. For any transition to be successful, public support is crucial. This empirical study shows that – as a consequence of the affect heuristic – those who perceive hard coal mining as beneficial tend to minimize both its detrimental environmental impacts and its personal safety hazards. Ignoring the affect heuristic may have retarded transformations and led to a failure of many information campaigns.

Exploring the affect heuristic in Iranian women entrepreneurs

PurposeHeuristics are fundamental components of the bounded rationality paradigm and influence entrepreneurs' decisions profusely. On the other hand, the affect heuristic is one of the most important heuristics. The body of knowledge on entrepreneurial heuristics is scattered on the whole and very superficial concerning women entrepreneurs, given that most studies have considered women and men entrepreneurs similar in showing heuristics. The dearth of research is more evident in the context of developing countries. Thus, to fill part of the existing research gaps, this study explores the affect heuristic in Iranian women entrepreneurs.Design/methodology/approachThis paper's data were gathered by conducting face-to-face interviews with 17 novice Iranian women entrepreneurs active in biotechnology, nanotechnology, advanced medicine, aerospace, textile and food sectors and analyzed through a thematic–narrative analysis.FindingsAccording to the results, the main outcomes of the affect heuristic in Iranian women entrepreneurs are delaying the final decision (including an obsession with collecting too much information, overemphasizing the role of negative information and seeking external advice before making a decision), rash decisions (including evaluations based on satisfying decision strategies, too much enthusiasm about one's venture, as well as an optimistic assessment of different scenarios) and serious consideration of quitting (including too much disappointment and anger over discrimination).Practical implicationsBased on this paper's findings, novice women entrepreneurs should be heedful of their fear, which could not only delay their decisions but also paralyze their capability of decision-making. Furthermore, while under circumstances such as information overload and uncertainty, positive feelings like optimism and happiness could be very instrumental by enabling entrepreneurs to shorten the process of their decisions, women entrepreneurs should be very careful about the possible biases resulting from their positive affect.Originality/valueThis study is a pioneer in two respects. First, it explores women entrepreneurs' decision-making heuristics, which is often a neglected area of research. Second, coming to the conclusion that most of the research on women entrepreneurs has been conducted in the Western context, this paper focuses on the context of developing countries by targeting Iranian women entrepreneurs.

Feelings toward gun owners

Chapter 5 examines the portrayal of gun owners and considers how this may impact people feelings toward them. Prior studies show that people consult their feelings when estimating risk—labeled the affect heuristic. Statistical analyses demonstrate that people’s feelings (favorable or unfavorable) toward gun owners powerfully determine their assessments of personal and public safety. If people favor gun owners, they believe concealed carry laws improve public safety and guns are not threats to personal security. If people dislike gun owners, they feel threatened by guns and disapprove of concealed carry policies. An interpretation of this finding suggests that people are not necessarily threatened by guns but rather by people who own guns.

Feelings and Frames

This chapter, “Feelings and Frames,” reviews research indicating that the less objectively numerate get carried away more by emotion, and they are more affected by how information is framed. In particular, they rely on the affect heuristic and use their feelings as a substitute for important numeric information. They are also more susceptible to attributes being framed positively or negatively (e.g., in terms of survival versus mortality or success versus failure) and to numeric risks being framed in frequency versus percentage formats (e.g., 9 versus 9% out of 100 people, respectively, will suffer a side effect). Their greater heuristic use means that they can evaluate information quickly and efficiently while making judgments that are generally good enough. However, they make small errors that may accumulate over time so that the less numerate experience less positive health, employment, and financial outcomes.