Maize yield projections under different climate change scenarios in different districts of Punjab

The study aimed to find out possible changes in climatic data (temperature and rainfall) from the regional climate model viz. PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies)under different SRES scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2 scenario) by the mid (2021-2050) and end (2071-2100) century at six locations of Punjab representing different agroclimatic zones and to study their impact on maize yield using the crop growth simulation model.The results revealed that the different zones of the state are expected to bewarmer during the mid century and this trend has been projected to continue by the end of century because of increase in maximum and minimum temperature at all the locations.The CERES-Maize simulated significant decrease in duration and grain yield of maize crop under projected climate scenarios. The reduction in the crop duration and grain yield was found to be more under the A1B and A2 scenario (high emission scenario) followed by B2 scenario (low emission scenario)due to adverse effects on crop physiology.

Country resolved combined emission and socio-economic pathways based on the RCP and SSP scenarios

Climate policy analysis needs reference scenarios to assess emissions targets and current trends. When presenting their national climate policies, countries often showcase their target trajectories against fictitious so-called baselines. These counterfactual scenarios are meant to present future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the absence of climate policy. These so-called baselines presented by countries are often of limited use as they can be exaggerated and the methodology used to derive them is usually not transparent. Scenarios created by independent modeling groups using integrated assessment models (IAMs) can provide different interpretations of several socio-economic storylines and can provide a more realistic backdrop against which the projected target emission trajectory can be assessed. However, the IAMs are limited in regional resolution. This resolution is further reduced in intercomparison studies as data for a common set of regions are produced by aggregating the underlying smaller regions. Thus, the data are not readily available for country-specific policy analysis. This gap is closed by downscaling regional IAM scenarios to country-level. The last of such efforts has been performed for the SRES scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), which are over a decade old by now. CMIP6 scenarios have been downscaled to a grid, however they cover only a few combinations of forcing levels and SSP storylines with only a single model per combination. Here, we provide up to date country scenarios, downscaled from the full RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenario databases, using results from the SSP GDP (Gross Domestic Product) country model results as drivers for the downscaling process. The data is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3638137 (Gütschow et al., 2020).

Warm temperatures, cool sponges: the effect of increased temperatures on the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp.

Although the cellular and molecular responses to exposure to relatively high temperatures (acute thermal stress or heat shock) have been studied previously, only sparse empirical evidence of how it affects cold-water species is available. As climate change becomes more pronounced in areas such as the Western Antarctic Peninsula, both long-term and occasional acute temperature rises will impact species found there, and it has become crucial to understand the capacity of these species to respond to such thermal stress. Here, we use the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp. to investigate how sessile organisms (particularly Porifera) can adjust to acute short-term heat stress, by exposing this species to 3 and 5 °C for 4 h, corresponding to predicted temperatures under high-end 2080 IPCC-SRES scenarios. Assembling a de novo reference transcriptome (90,188 contigs, >93.7% metazoan BUSCO genes) we have begun to discern the molecular response employed by Isodictya to adjust to heat exposure. Our initial analyses suggest that TGF-β, ubiquitin and hedgehog cascades are involved, alongside other genes. However, the degree and type of response changed little from 3 to 5 °C in the time frame examined, suggesting that even moderate rises in temperature could cause stress at the limits of this organism’s capacity. Given the importance of sponges to Antarctic ecosystems, our findings are vital for discerning the consequences of short-term increases in Antarctic ocean temperature on these and other species.

Warm Temperatures, Cool Sponges: The Effect of Increased Temperatures on the Antarctic Sponge Isodictya sp

Although the cellular and molecular responses to exposure to relatively high temperatures (acute thermal stress or heat shock) have been studied previously, only sparse empirical evidence of how it affects cold-water species is available. As climate change becomes more pronounced in areas such as the Western Antarctic Peninsula, it has become crucial to understand the capacity of these species to respond to thermal stress.Here we use the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp. to investigate how sessile organisms (particularly Porifera) can adjust to acute short-term heat stress, by exposing this species to 3 and 5 °C for 4 hours, corresponding to predicted temperatures under high-end 2080 IPCC-SRES scenarios. Assembling a de novo reference transcriptome (90,188 contigs, >93.7% metazoan BUSCO genes) we have begun to discern the molecular componentry employed by Isodictya to adjust to environmental insult.Our initial analyses suggest that TGF-β, ubiquitin and hedgehog cascades are involved, alongside other genes. However, the degree and type of response changed little from 3 to 5 °C, suggesting that even moderate rises in temperature could cause stress at the limits of this organism’s capacity. Given the importance of sponges to Antarctic ecosystems, our findings are vital for discerning the consequences of increases in Antarctic ocean temperature on these and other species.

Climate Related Diseases. Current Regional Variability and Projections to the Year 2100

The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD) in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality), influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1) statistical modelling basing on past data and 2) projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1) to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080) under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month) and response variables (presence/absence of pastures) to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%). Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46%) and B2 (–41%) along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively) and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios) by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the traditional grazing practices, will likely threat grassland biodiversity as well as pastoral potential distribution currently dominating the Apennines chain.