Prediction of evolution of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in Italy

A relevant problem in the study of the Covid-19 pandemic is the study of its temporal evolution. Such evolution depends on a number of factors, among which the average rate of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals, the duration of infectiousness and the transmissibility, that is the probability of infection after a contact between susceptible and infected individuals. In a previous study, we analyzed the potentiality of a number of distributions to describe the evolution of the pandemic and the potentiality of each distribution to mathematically predict the evolution of the pandemic in Italy. Since the number of daily tests was changing and increasing with time, we used the ratio of the new daily cases per swab. We considered distributions of the type of Gauss (normal), Gamma, Beta, Weibull, Lognormal and in addition of the type of the Planck blackbody radiation law. The Planck law, describing the amount of energy of the electromagnetic radiation emitted by a black body at each wavelength or at each frequency, marked in 1900 the beginning of Quantum Mechanics. The result of our analysis was that, among the considered distributions, the Planck law has the best potentiality to mathematically predict the evolution of the pandemic and the best fitting capability. In this paper, we analyze the time evolution of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy and in particular we predict the ratio of the new daily cases per swab at Christmas 2020 using the data in the interval from 17 Oct to 21 Nov. According to Figure 4 and Figure 8, the prediction for such a ratio around Christmas is approximately within 6% and 7%. In this study there is also an attempt to account for the effects of the governmental containment measures.

Planck, the Second Law of Thermodynamics, and Black‐body Radiation

Planck’s work on black‐body radiation grew out of a failed attempt to use electrodynamics to show that entropy can never decrease, i.e., that the second law of thermodynamics is not just a statistical but a strict law of nature. This original interest is reflected in his approach to the problem of black‐body radiation. Planck derived the formula for the spectral distribution of black‐body radiation from the formula for the entropy of a resonator interacting with the radiation at its resonance frequency. He initially chose an entropy formula that gave him a black‐body radiation formula proposed by Wien. Deviations from this Wien law at low frequencies led him to adopt a new entropy formula, which gives a law that reduces to the Wien law at high frequencies and to (what is now known as) the Rayleigh‐Jeans law at low frequencies. This new Planck law agreed remarkably well with all experimental data. Planck thus set out to find a derivation of the entropy formula leading to it. Although he continued to resist Boltzmann’s statistical interpretation of the second law for another decade, Planck borrowed some of Boltzmann’s techniques for this derivation. The derivation critically depends on energy elements with sizes proportional to the frequency of the radiation and Planck’s constant as the proportionality constant. Planck’s papers of 1900–01, however, leave open the question of how these energy elements are to be interpreted.

THE CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN VACCINATION ADJUVANTS AND AUTISM

Adjuvants essential in vaccines to stimulate activation of the immune system comprise submicron (< 100 nm) nanoparticles (NPs) of aluminum hydroxide that upon vaccine injection cross the blood-brain-barrier (BBB) and because of their low solubility may remain in the brain for an extended time. Despite over a century of use, the mechanism underlying the stimulation of the immune system by adjuvants has not been understood. Solar UV can optically stimulate most immune systems in the skin, but solar UV is not available inside the brain. By the process of simple QED, the NPs lacking heat capacity by the Planck law conserve heat from brain tissue by emitting UV radiation instead of increasing in temperature. Hence, the causal link between vaccination adjuvants and autism is UV stimulation of the immune system from constituent NPs that cross the BBB. But the UV also damages the DNA of brain tissue and increases the pro-inflammatory interleukin (IL-6) cytokine levels common in autism patients. Pre-vaccination enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests of IL-6 level including UV blood irradiation (UBI common in immune-modulating therapy are suggested to determine if a patient will have an adverse vaccination response. Patients having high IL-6 levels are not recommended for vaccination.

On the scaling of the solar incident flux

It was recently found that spectral solar incident flux (SIF) as a function of the ultraviolet wavelengths exhibits 1/f-type power-law correlations. In this study, an attempt was made to explore the residues of the SIF with respect to the Planck law over a wider range of wavelengths, from 115.5 to 629.5 nm. Using spectral, Haar and Detrended Fluctuation analyses, we show that over the range from 10–20 nm to the maximum lag (≈ 500 nm), the SIF residues have a scaling regime with fluctuation exponent H &amp;approx; 0.37 but with high intermittency (C1 &amp;approx; 0.16, multifractal index α&amp;approx; 1.7) and spectral exponent &amp;approx; 1.46. Over the shorter wavelengths range we found on the contrary low intermittency (C1 &amp;approx; 0) with spectral exponent &amp;approx; 1 and H &amp;approx; 0.

Remaining Problems in Interpretation of the Cosmic Microwave Background

By three independent hints it will be demonstrated that still at present there is a substantial lack of theoretical understanding of the CMB phenomenon. One point, as we show, is that at the phase of the recombination era one cannot assume complete thermodynamic equilibrium conditions but has to face both deviations in the velocity distributions of leptons and baryons from a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution and automatically correlated deviations of photons from a Planck law. Another point is that at the conventional understanding of the CMB evolution in an expanding universe one has to face growing CMB temperatures with growing look-back times. We show, however, here that the expected CMB temperature increases would be prohibitive to star formation in galaxies at redshifts higher than z=2 where nevertheless the cosmologically most relevant supernovae have been observed. The third point in our present study has to do with the assumption of a constant vacuum energy density which is required by the present ΛCDM-cosmology. Our studies here rather lead to the conclusion that cosmic vacuum energy density scales with the inverse square of the cosmic expansion scale R=R(t). Thus we come to the conclusion that with the interpretation of the present-day high quality CMB data still needs to be considered carefully.