Utility of Human Footprint Pressure Mapping for Large Carnivore Conservation: The Kafue-Zambezi Interface

Proxies and indicators to monitor cumulative human pressures provide useful tools to model change and understanding threshold pressures at which species can persist, are extirpated, or might recolonize human-impacted landscapes. We integrated modelling and field observations of human pressure variables to generate a site-specific, fine scale Human Footprint Pressure map for 39,000 km2 of rangelands at the Kafue–Zambezi interface—a key linkage in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. We then modelled Human Footprint Pressure against empirically derived occurrence data for lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) to generate Human Footprint Pressure threshold ranges at which each species were persisting or extirpated within ten wildlife managed areas linking Kafue National Park to the Zambezi River. Results overcame many limitations inherent in existing large-scale Human Footprint Pressure models, providing encouraging direction for this approach. Human Footprint Pressure thresholds were broadly similar to existing studies, indicating this approach is valid for site- and species-specific modelling. Model performance would improve as additional datasets become available and with improved understanding of how asymmetrical and nonlinear threshold responses to footprint pressure change across spatial-temporal scales. However, our approach has broader utility for local and region-wide conservation planning where mapping and managing human disturbance will help in managing carnivore species within and without protected area networks.

Modelling Multi-Species Connectivity at the Kafue-Zambezi Interface: Implications for Transboundary Carnivore Conservation

Linking wildlife areas with corridors facilitating species dispersal between core habitats is a key intervention to reduce the deleterious effects of population isolation. Large heterogeneous networks of areas managed for wildlife protection present site- and species-scale complexity underpinning the scope and performance of proposed corridors. In Southern Africa, the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area seeks to link Kafue National Park to a cluster of wildlife areas centered in Namibia and Botswana. To assess and identify potential linkages on the Zambian side, we generated a high-resolution land cover map and combined empirical occurrence data for Lions (Panthera leo), Leopards (Panthera pardus) and Spotted Hyena (Crocuta crocuta) to build habitat suitability maps. We then developed four connectivity models to map potential single and multi-species corridors between Kafue and the Zambezi River border with Namibia. Single and multi-species connectivity models selected corridors follow broadly similar pathways narrowing significantly in central-southern areas of the Kafue-Zambezi interface, indicating a potential connectivity bottleneck. Capturing the full extent of human disturbance and barriers to connectivity remains challenging, suggesting increased risk to corridor integrity than modelled here. Notwithstanding model limitations, these data provide important results for land use planners at the Kafue-Zambezi Interface, removing much speculations from existing connectivity narratives. Failure to control human disturbance and secure corridors will leave Kafue National Park, Zambia’s majority component in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, isolated.

Husbandry and Herding: A Community-Based Approach to Addressing Illegal Wildlife Trade in Northern Botswana

Illegal bushmeat hunting is a major driver of wildlife population declines in Northern Botswana. Such declines raise concerns about the principles and integrity of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) and regional economic stability which is heavily reliant on wildlife-based tourism. The KAZA landscape between Northern Botswana's protected areas consists of non-state land utilized communally by small agropastoralist communities. These communities are economically challenged by international beef trade policies, restricted access to grazing in nearby wildlife management areas and high conflict costs from living in close proximity to wildlife; some of the key factors identified as drivers of bushmeat hunting in the region. Here we describe how a model called Herding for Health (H4H) could address these drivers. We discuss strategies using a socio-economic centered Theory of Change (ToC) model to identify the role agropastoral communities can have in addressing illegal wildlife trade (IWT). The ToC conceptual framework was developed with input from a resource team consisting of scientific and implementation experts in H4H, wildlife conservation, illegal wildlife trade and livelihood development between September and December 2018, and with a validation workshop in March 2019 with government representatives from relevant ministries, NGO's, community-based organizations and private sector participants. We identify three pathways deriving from the ToC driven by community level actions to address IWT in the region. These include: increasing institutions for local enforcement, developing incentives for ecosystem stewardship and decreasing the costs of living alongside wildlife. The success of these pathways depends on underlying enabling actions: support for the development of institutional frameworks; building community capacity to facilitate informed best farming practices; and strengthening commitments to sustainable resource management to increase resilience to climatic and economic shocks.

Do Tar Roads Bring Tourism? Growth Corridor Policy and Tourism Development in the Zambezi region, Namibia

There are high aspirations to foster growth in Namibia’s Zambezi region via the development of tourism. The Zambezi region is a core element of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA), a mosaic of areas with varying degrees of protection, which is designed to combine nature conservation and rural development. These conservation areas serve as a resource base for wildlife tourism, and growth corridor policy aims to integrate the region into tourism global production networks (GPNs) by means of infrastructure development. Despite the increasing popularity of growth corridors, little is known about the effectiveness of this development strategy at local level. The mixed-methods approach suggests a link between a tandem of infrastructure development and tourism-oriented policies on the one hand, and increased value creation from tourism in the region on the other hand. Yet, the promises of tourism-driven development reach only a very limited number of rural residents.

The making of a conservation landscape: the emergence of a conservationist environmental infrastructure along the Kwando River in Namibia's Zambezi region

The Kwando Basin of north-eastern Namibia is firmly embedded in current national and international conservation agendas. It is a key part of the world's largest transboundary conservation area, the Kavango–Zambezi (KAZA) Transfrontier Conservation Area, and the home of seven community-based conservation areas (conservancies) and three smaller national parks (Mudumu, Nkasa Rupara and Bwabwata). While conservation agendas often start from the assumption that an authentic part of African nature is conserved as an assemblage of biota that has not been gravely impacted by subsistence agriculture, colonialism and global value chains, we show that environmental infrastructure along the Namibian side of the Kwando Valley has been shaped by the impact of administrative measures and the gradual decoupling of humans and wildlife in a vast wetland. The way towards today's conservation landscape was marked and marred by the enforced reordering of human–environment relations; clearing the riverine core wetlands of human habitation and concentrating communities in narrowly defined settlement zones; the suppression of specific, wetland-adapted subsistence practices; and the elimination of unwanted microbes with the help of insecticides. The interventions in the ecosystem and the construction of an environmental infrastructure have created a unique conservation landscape in the Namibian Zambezi region, which provides the foundation for its popularity and success.

The 2020 elephant die-off in Botswana

The cause of deaths of 350 elephants in 2020 in a relatively small unprotected area of northern Botswana is unknown, and may never be known. Media speculations about it ignore ecological realities. Worse, they make conjectures that can be detrimental to wildlife and sometimes discredit conservation incentives. A broader understanding of the ecological and conservation issues speaks to elephant management across the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area that extends across Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Our communication addresses these. Malicious poisoning and poaching are unlikely to have played a role. Other species were unaffected, and elephant carcases had their tusks intact. Restriction of freshwater supplies that force elephants to use pans as a water source possibly polluted by blue-green algae blooms is a possible cause, but as yet not supported by evidence. No other species were involved. A contagious disease is the more probable one. Fences and a deep channel of water confine these elephants’ dispersal. These factors explain the elephants’ relatively high population growth rate despite a spell of increased poaching during 2014–2018. While the deaths represent only ~2% of the area’s elephants, the additive effects of poaching and stress induced by people protecting their crops cause alarm. Confinement and relatively high densities probably explain why the die-off occurred only here. It suggests a re-alignment or removal of fences that restrict elephant movements and limits year-round access to freshwater.

Abundant herds: Accumulation, herd management, and land-use patterns in a conservation area

North-eastern Namibia’s Zambezi Region became part of the world’s largest transboundary conservation area in the early 2010s: the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area. While wildlife numbers and wildlife-based tourism are increasing rapidly in this conservation zone, cattle herds and livestock-based economies are expanding as well. More than conservation and wildlife-based tourism, cattle husbandry is a project of the local population and of the local elite in particular. Cattle are an expression of wealth and are regarded as a means of saving. At the same time, cattle can be used to plough fields, pull sledges, and produce milk and meat for home consumption and also for sale. Cattle also fulfil important social functions; they are necessary for bridewealth payments and are used in cattle loans with which wealthy herd owners furnish poorer relatives. Recent investments into self-financed boreholes have opened new rangelands for the wealthy, while the expansion of conservation areas in the region’s wetlands and the establishment of wildlife corridors have rendered other rangelands challenging due to prohibitions and increasing incidences of human–wildlife conflict. The needs and practices of expanding cattle husbandry often conflict with the demands and challenges of conservation and conservation-related tourism. This contribution describes the emergence and expansion of cattle husbandry in a region which had hardly any cattle before the 1960s and which has seen a major expansion of conservation areas and a subsequent refaunation since the 1980s. The contribution analyses current cattle ownership patterns and management practices. We argue that livestock husbandry and conservation have to be considered together and not as competing land-use strategies that need to be kept apart but as separate visions and aspirations of different stakeholders relating to the same landscape.