Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of widespread adoption of masks or face coverings to reduce community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19.
Methods: We employed an agent-based stochastic network simulation model, where Covid-19 progresses across census tracts according to a variant of SEIR. We considered a mask order that was initiated 3.5 months after the first confirmed Covid-19 case. We evaluated scenarios where wearing a mask reduces transmission and susceptibility by 50% or 80%; an individual wears a mask with a probability of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, or 100%.
Results: If 60% of the population wears masks that are 50% effective, this decreases the cumulative infection attack rate (CAR) by 25%, the peak prevalence by 51%, and the population mortality by 25%. If 100% of people wear masks (or 60% wear masks that are 80% effective), this decreases the CAR by 38%, the peak prevalence by 67%, and the population mortality by 40%.
Conclusions: After community transmission is present, masks can significantly reduce infections.