Perspectives on the pervasive energy-systems transformations

Energy is central for the global decarbonization and the achievement of a sustainable future for all. This calls for a fundamental energy-systems transformation that would bring multiple co-benefits for health, climate and other challenges facing humanity and especially those without access to affordable and clean energy services. Pervasive transformation toward zero-carbon electricity and electrification of energy end use are central to achieving higher efficiencies, decarbonization and net-zero emissions. This is not merely a technical and economic issue. It is about people, about societies and about values and behaviors. Technology is an integral part of the society and an expression of collective intentionality through aggregation of sundry individual choices. The next disruptive transformation toward a sustainable future may indeed be powered by the digital revolution. It poses dangers for privacy, dissemination of alternative realities and erosion of evidence-based information but it also offers a great promise of catalyzing the emergence of a sustainable future by augmenting human capabilities by new, more convenient, more efficient and decarbonized goods and services. The key question is whether humanity will have the political will to collectively achieve the energy-systems transformation toward a sustainable future and net-zero emissions in merely three decades.

The Challenge of Climate Change—Complete Energy Systems Transformation: No Nuclear, No Net Zero

To achieve Net Zero, natural gas, gasoline, diesel, and fuel oils must be replaced with another source. However, most of the current low-carbon energy sources will also need to be replaced as almost none have more than about 25 years remaining of useful life. The pace and scale of the needed change is unprecedented: almost the whole of the world’s primary energy supply must be replaced. The (re)development of the entire energy system is inherently a sovereign risk and it can only be governments who set national energy policy. There is no doubt that markets will continue to play a part in future energy systems, but at the top level, the pace and scale of change to achieve Net Zero is simply far too fast for markets to adapt properly. This chapter is a call to action to the national policy makers and presents this challenge as an opportunity for creating higher-quality jobs and potentially highly attractive and long-dated investment options. The chapter also outlines some risks, including political indecisiveness and policy volatility as potential impediments to making the most of this opportunity and achieving the Net Zero.

The Future of Roots, Tubers and Bananas

This paper provides a focused, forward-looking perspective on Roots, Tubers, and Bananas to support discussion on food, land, and water systems transformation.

Exploring the Future of Food, Land, and Water Systems

This document is one of a collection of three working papers and a synthesis brief edited by Steven Prager and Keith Wiebe and prepared as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). This synthesis brief and the three working papers, along with other related materials, are intended to provide a forward-looking perspective on key issues to support discussion on food, land, and water systems transformation.

Strategic Foresight in the One CGIAR: Gaps and Needs in Approaches and Capacity

This document is part of a series of working papers, produced as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), and intended to provide a focused, forward-looking perspective on key issues to support discussion on food, land, and water systems transformation. This is a special edition of the series, based on the cumulative experiences of the CGIAR Foresight Community of Practice and recent One CGIAR Initiative development activities. This version is shared for discussion and comment. A final version will be made available at http://foresight.cgiar.org.

The Future of Sustainable Development and Agrobiodiversity in Tanzania and Uganda

This document is part of a series of short papers on “The Future of X”, produced as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, and edited by Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) and Steven Prager (Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT). These short papers are intended to provide a focused, forward-looking perspective on key issues to support discussion on food, land, and water systems transformation. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft.This is an accepted version presented as a pre-print. It is currently undergoing final revision, editing, and production. A final version will be made available at http://foresight.cgiar.org.

The Future of Food Security, Nutrition and Health for Agri-food Systems Transformation

Global progress towards food security and nutrition has been slow in many places and even reversing in others. Against the background of changes in population, income, technology, climate, and other drivers, the pressures on food systems are daunting. When designing and rolling out future interventions towards these goals it is of vital importance to utilize foresight knowledge to anticipate, shape, and prepare for alternative possible futures. Overcoming current and emerging challenges but also seizing opportunities as they present themselves requires continued efforts to provide robust analysis to inform decision making. Here we collated the latest insights from foresight studies around three central aspects within the food system. First, consumer demand and the changes this is undergoing is a key aspect shaping the food system itself as well as nutritional and environmental outcomes. Second, distributional inequalities and trade-offs within the food system have further been identified as key challenges to tackling adverse health outcomes of the current food system. And third, amplified by the COVID crisis, enhancing the resilience of the food system that is increasingly under threat from multiple risks has risen to the top of the agenda.