The Winner Takes it All: Risk Factors and Bayesian Modelling of the Probability of Success in Escaping from Big Cat Predation

The individuals engaged in predation interactions modify their adaptation strategies to improve their efficiency to reach success in the fight for survival. This success is linked to either capturing prey (predator) or escaping (prey). Based on the graphic material available on digital platforms both of public and private access, this research aimed to evaluate the influence of those animal- and environment-dependent factors affecting the probability of successful escape of prey species in case of attack by big cats. Bayesian predictive analysis was performed to evaluate the outcomes derived from such factor combinations on the probability of successful escape. Predator species, age, status at the end of the hunting act, time lapse between first attention towards potential prey and first physical contact, prey species and the relief of the terrain, significantly conditioned (p < 0.05) escape success. Social cooperation in hunting may be more important in certain settings and for certain prey species than others. The most parsimonious model explained 36.5% of the variability in escaping success. These results can be useful to design translatable selective strategies not only seeking to boost predation abilities of domestic felids for pest control, but also, biological antipredator defence in potential domestic prey of big cats.

Drop when the stakes are high: adaptive, flexible use of dropping behaviour by aphids

For herbivorous insects, dropping from the host plant is a commonly-observed antipredator defence. The use of dropping compared to other behaviours and its timing in relation to contact with a predator was explored in both pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) and potato aphids (Macrosiphum euphorbiae). Pea aphids dropped more frequently in response to ladybird adults (Adalia bipunctata) than lacewing larvae (Chrysoperla carnea). Potato aphids mainly walked away or backed-up in response to both predator types; but they dropped more frequently relative to other non-walking defences when faced with ladybird adults. Contact with a predator was an important influencer of dropping for both species, and most drops occurred from adjacent to the predator. Dropping appears to be a defence adaptively deployed only when the risk of imminent predation is high; factors that increase dropping likelihood include presence of faster-foraging predators such as adult ladybirds, predator proximity, and contact between aphid and predator.

Oviposition-site shift in phytophagous mites reflects a trade-off between predator avoidance and rainstorm resistance

Predators can reduce prey population densities by driving them to undertake costly defences. Here, we report on a remarkable example of induced antipredator defence in spider mites that enhances the risk to rainstorms. Spider mites live on the undersides of host plant leaves and usually oviposit on the leaf undersurface. When they are threatened by predatory mites, they oviposit on three-dimensional webs to avoid egg predation, although the cost of ovipositing on webs has not yet been clearly determined. We prepared bean plants harbouring spider mite ( Tetranychus kanzawai ) eggs on either leaf surfaces or webs and exposed them to rainstorms outdoors. We found that fewer eggs remained on webs than on leaf surfaces. We then examined the synergistic effect of wind and rain by simulating both in the laboratory. We conclude that ovipositing on webs comes at a cost, as eggs are washed off the host plants by wind and rain. This may explain why spider mite populations decrease drastically in the rainy season, although they inhibit leaf undersides where they are not directly exposed to rainfall.

Sex ratio and sexual conflict in a collective action problem

The maintenance of cooperation is difficult whenever collective action problems are vulnerable to freeriding (reaping the benefits without contributing to the maintenance of the good). We identify a novel factor that can make a system tolerate an extent of freeriding. If a population consists of discrete types with demographically distinct roles, such that the success of one type does not imply it can spread to replace other types in the population, then collective goods may persist in the presence of free-riders because they are necessarily kept in a minority role. Biased sex ratios (e.g. in haplodiploids) create conditions where individuals of one sex are a minority. We show that this can make the less common sex contribute less to a public good in a setting where the relevant life-history stage — larval group defence against predators — does not feature any current breeding opportunities that might lead to confounding reasons behind sex-specific behaviour. We test our model with haplodiploid pine sawfly larvae, showing that female larvae are the main contributors to building the antipredator defence against predators.Significance statementIndividuals in groups can cooperate to achieve something together, but with an evolutionary difficulty: if benefits of cooperation are shared equally among all, freeriders get the same benefit as others while paying less for it. We propose a novel reason why freeriding does not automatically spread until the collectively beneficial outcome is destroyed: sometimes groups consist of individuals of distinct categories, limiting freerider spread. If, for example, there are always fewer males than females, then even if every male becomes a freerider, the whole group still survives simply because not everyone can be male. Pine sawfly larvae defend against predators by regurgitating sticky fluids, but females contribute more to this common defence, and we show this example fits our model.

The association between evidence of a predator threat and responsiveness to alarm calls in Western Australian magpies (Cracticus tibicen dorsalis)

Alarm calls are a widespread form of antipredator defence and being alerted to the presence of predators by the alarm calls of conspecifics is considered one of the benefits of group living. However, while social information can allow an individual to gain additional information, it can also at times be inaccurate or irrelevant. Such variation in the accuracy of social information is predicted to select for receivers to discriminate between sources of social information. In this study, we used playback experiments to determine whether Western Australian magpies (Cracticus tibicen dorsalis) respond to the predator information associated with alarm calls. Magpies were exposed to the alarm calls of two group members that differed in the threat associated with the alarm call: one call was played in the presence of a predator model while the other was not—in order to establish differences in the predator information provided by each caller. We then played back the alarm calls of the same group members in the absence of the predator model to determine whether magpies responded differently to signallers in response to the previous association between the alarm call and a predator threat. We found that receivers showed significantly greater levels of responsiveness to signallers that previously gave alarm calls in the appropriate context. Thus, the accuracy of threat-based information influenced subsequent receiver response.

Deimatism: a neglected component of antipredator defence

Deimatic or ‘startle’ displays cause a receiver to recoil reflexively in response to a sudden change in sensory input. Deimatism is sometimes implicitly treated as a form of aposematism (unprofitability associated with a signal). However, the fundamental difference is, in order to provide protection, deimatism does not require a predator to have any learned or innate aversion. Instead, deimatism can confer a survival advantage by exploiting existing neural mechanisms in a way that releases a reflexive response in the predator. We discuss the differences among deimatism, aposematism, and forms of mimicry, and their ecological and evolutionary implications. We highlight outstanding questions critical to progress in understanding deimatism.

Chemical antipredator defence is linked to higher extinction risk

Many attributes of species may be linked to contemporary extinction risk, though some such traits remain untested despite suggestions that they may be important. Here, I test whether a trait associated with higher background extinction rates, chemical antipredator defence, is also associated with current extinction risk, using amphibians as a model system—a group facing global population declines. I find that chemically defended species are approximately 60% more likely to be threatened than species without chemical defence, although the severity of the contemporary extinction risk may not relate to chemical defence. The results confirm that background and contemporary extinction rates can be predicted from the same traits, at least in certain cases. This suggests that associations between extinction risk and phenotypic traits can be temporally stable over long periods. The results also provide novel insights into the relevance of antipredator defences for species subject to conservation concerns.