Influence of crustal lithology and the thermal state on microseismicity in the Wakayama region, southern Honshu, Japan

Here we investigate the influence of the lithology and thermal state of the upper crust on earthquake distributions beneath the Wakayama region, southern Honshu, Japan, to better understand the influence of crustal conditions on regional seismogenesis. The earthquakes are concentrated in the deeper sections of mafic belts and shallower sections of pelitic belts, based on a comparison of relocated hypocenters and estimated subsurface geological structures. We compare the frictional properties of pelitic rocks and basalt, as obtained from petrological experiments, with the hypocenter depth distributions in pelitic and mafic belts to assess the control of crustal lithology on the depth extent of regional seismicity. The earthquake distributions are consistent with the temperature ranges over which the respective rock types are expected to exhibit a velocity-weakening behavior, based on the petrological experiments. The results suggest that the occurrence of shallow intraplate earthquakes is controlled by the temperature- and lithology-dependent friction of the upper crust.

Evidence of paleoseismic activity recorded in glaciolacustrine sediments predating the Weichselian glacial maximum in East Lithuania

Soft-sediment deformation structures (SSDS) were identified in proglacial lacustrine (glaciolacustrine) sediments dated to 25–24 ka in the Buivydžiai outcrop, situated 30 km north of Vilnius in east Lithuania. These sediments accumulated in front of the last Weichselian glaciation maximum. The SSDS originated due to sandy silt liquefaction that disrupted the decimeter-thick silty sand interlayer. A NW-SE trending Buivydžiai fault was mapped in the proximity (8 km) of the Buivydžiai outcrop. The fault is well traced by a dense drilling in the sediments of the preglacial Daumantai Formation in the basal part of the Quaternary cover and attributed to the earliest Pleistocene. Depth difference of the formation along the fault is ~5–8 m; the northern flank is relatively uplifted with respect to the southern flank. The Buivydžiai earthquake was most likely induced by formation of an elastic forebulge flexure of the Earth's crust in front of the ice sheet. The magnitude was evaluated ~M = 6.0–6.5 and was most likely of shallow hypocenter depth. Furthermore, the Bystritsa (Belarus) earthquake of magnitude M = 3.5–4.0 was registered in December 1908 to the east (12 km) of the Buivydžiai outcrop along the Buivydžiai fault, which points to recurrent seismic activity of this fault.

Analyzing the Performance of GPS Data for Earthquake Prediction

The results of earthquake prediction largely depend on the quality of data and the methods of their joint processing. At present, for a number of regions, it is possible, in addition to data from earthquake catalogs, to use space geodesy data obtained with the help of GPS. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the efficiency of using the time series of displacements of the Earth’s surface according to GPS data for the systematic prediction of earthquakes. The criterion of efficiency is the probability of successful prediction of an earthquake with a limited size of the alarm zone. We use a machine learning method, namely the method of the minimum area of alarm, to predict earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 6.0 and a hypocenter depth of up to 60 km, which occurred from 2016 to 2020 in Japan, and earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.5. and a hypocenter depth of up to 60 km, which happened from 2013 to 2020 in California. For each region, we compare the following results: random forecast of earthquakes, forecast obtained with the field of spatial density of earthquake epicenters, forecast obtained with spatio-temporal fields based on GPS data, based on seismological data, and based on combined GPS data and seismological data. The results confirm the effectiveness of using GPS data for the systematic prediction of earthquakes.

KURIL-OKHOTSK REGION

The review of the annual seismicity of the Kurilo-Okhotsk region is submitted. Parameters of 863 earthquakes are determined by records of four Kuril stations. Their distribution of hypocenter depth is given. The maximal depth has made h=620 km in 2013. The distribution of earthquakes on the magnitude and their summarized energy on areas of the region is given. The map of epicenters, together with focal mechanisms for 23 earth-quakes is shown. For each area, seismic conditions are described.

Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider

In this paper we present and discuss the performance of the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e., epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates using offline-event or continuous-real-time seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp, and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd estimations are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est between the beginning of March 2012 and the end of December 2014 on a global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and we also present the detection timeline. We compare the earthquake parameters automatically computed by Early-est with the same parameters listed in reference catalogs. Such reference catalogs are manually revised/verified by scientists. The goal of this work is to test the accuracy and reliability of the fully automatic locations provided by Early-est. In our analysis, the epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. Both mb and Mwp magnitudes show differences to the reference catalogs. We thus derived correction functions in order to minimize the differences and correct biases between our values and the ones from the reference catalogs. Correction of the Mwp distance dependency is particularly relevant, since this magnitude refers to the larger and probably tsunamigenic earthquakes. Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≲ 30° are significantly overestimated with respect to the CMT-global solutions, whereas Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≳ 90° are slightly underestimated. After applying such distance correction the Mwp provided by Early-est differs from CMT-global catalog values of about δ Mwp ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2. Early-est continuously acquires time-series data and updates the earthquake source parameters. Our analysis shows that the epicenter coordinates and the magnitude values converge within less than 10 min (5 min in the Mediterranean region) toward the stable values. Our analysis shows that we can compute Mwp magnitudes that do not display short epicentral distance dependency overestimation, and we can provide robust and reliable earthquake source parameters to compile tsunami warning messages within less than 15 min after the event origin time.

Appraising the Early-est earthquake monitoring system for tsunami alerting at the Italian candidate Tsunami Service Provider

In this paper we present the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian candidate Tsunami Service Provider at INGV in Roma. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e. epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates on offline-event or continuous-realtime seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est from the beginning of 2012 till the end of December 2014 at global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and the detection timeline. The earthquake parameters computed automatically by Early-est are compared with reference manually revised/verified catalogs. From our analysis the epicenter location and hypocenter depth parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. The epicenter coordinates generally differ less than 20 ∓ 20 km from the reference epicenter coordinates; focal depths are less well constrained and differ generally less than 0 ∓ 30 km. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. The magnitude mb show wide differences with respect to the reference catalogs, we thus apply a linear correction mbcorr = mb · 0.52 + 2.46, such correction results into δmb ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2 uncertainty with respect the reference catalogs. As expected the Mwp show distance dependency. Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≲ 30° are significantly overestimated with respect the CMT-global solutions, whereas Mwp values at stations with epicentral distance Δ ≳ 90° are slightly underestimated. We thus apply a 3rd degree polynomial distance correction. After applying the distance correction, the Mwp provided by Early-est differs from CMT-global catalog values of about δ Mwp ≈ 0.0 ∓ 0.2. Early-est continuously acquires time series data and updates the earthquake source parameters. Our analysis shows that the epicenter coordinates and the magnitude values converge rather quickly toward the final values. Generally we can provide robust and reliable earthquake source parameters to compile tsunami warning message within less than about 15 min after event origin time.

The Earthquake’s Relative Location Algorithms Effected by Data Recorded at Nearby Station

Based on the primary theory of location, it is found that the data recorded at nearby stations are applicable in double difference relocation algorithm, but not in other relative location algorithms. Equation derivation and simulated calculation demonstrate that double difference algorithm allows to get the absolute locations of earthquakes with certain accuracy by using the nearby stations records. The errors of relative location become larger when using the nearby station records alone than that using the distant station records. Combining the nearby and distant station records, the best locations are obtained. In the case that hypocenter depth is far less than the epicenter distance without depth phases available, only the relative epicenter distribution could be obtained accurately by double difference method, the depth determined would be not stable. The relocation test of a part of aftershocks in Jiashi earthquake sequence verify the effect of nearby station records on the double difference algorithm mentioned above.