Citizen Scientists Showed a Four-Fold Increase of Lynx Numbers in Lithuania

By the early 2000s, Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) were nearly extirpated in Lithuania. To determine their status, we used snow-track counts in 2006–2012 and volunteer monitoring in 1999–2005 and 2015–2018. Using simple questionnaires, we collected incidental observations from hunters, foresters, and other interested citizens to estimate lynx distribution, abundance and extent of breeding. Citizen scientists provided 206 reports of 278 individual lynx that suggested expanding lynx distributions in central, western, southwestern, and southern parts of Lithuania. A decrease in range fragmentation has also been observed since 2015. Nationwide, the lynx population quadrupled from 2010 to 162 individuals in 2018. The number of breeding individuals reported was just seven in both 2007 and 2008, limited to two forests in the very north and central part of the country. This increased to 46 in 2015–2018. Our results indicate that the lynx population in Lithuania has increased and its conservation status should be reconsidered.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few studies have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change will cause a major shift in the spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of the current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes, and for over 75% of species in the west of the current range. The distributions of species predicted to move westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes will contract, while the ranges of the species not showing these trends will expand. Amphibians will lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges will increase by 15%. Climate change will likely modify the spatial configuration of climatically suitable areas. Changes in area and fragmentation of climatically suitable patches are related, which means that species may be simultaneously affected by different stressors as a consequence of climate change.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few studies have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change will cause a major shift in the spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of the current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes, and for over 75% of species in the west of the current range. The distributions of species predicted to move westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes will contract, while the ranges of the species not showing these trends will expand. Amphibians will lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges will increase by 15%. Climate change will likely modify the spatial configuration of climatically suitable areas. Changes in area and fragmentation of climatically suitable patches are related, which means that species may be simultaneously affected by different stressors as a consequence of climate change.

Deep and wide valleys drive nested phylogeographic patterns across a montane bird community

Montane species distributions interrupted by valleys can lead to range fragmentation, differentiation and ultimately speciation. Paleoclimatic fluctuations may accentuate or reduce such diversification by temporally altering the extent of montane habitat and may affect species differentially. We examined how an entire montane bird community of the Western Ghats—a linear, coastal tropical mountain range—responds to topographic valleys that host different habitats. Using genetic data from 23 species (356 individuals) collected across nine locations, we examined if different species in the community reveal spatial concordance in population differentiation, and whether the timing of these divergences correlate with climatic events. Our results reveal a nested effect of valleys, with several species (10 of 23) demonstrating the oldest divergences associated with the widest and deepest valley in the mountain range, the Palghat Gap. Further, a subset of these 10 species revealed younger divergences across shallower, narrower valleys. We recovered discordant divergence times for all valley-affected montane birds, mostly in the Pleistocene, supporting the Pliestocene-pump hypotheses and highlighting the role of climatic fluctuations during this period in driving species evolution. A majority of species remain unaffected by valleys, perhaps owing to geneflow or extinction–recolonization dynamics. Studying almost the entire community allowed us to uncover a range of species’ responses, including some generalizable and other unpredicted patterns.

Limits to adaptation along environmental gradients

Why do species not adapt to ever-wider ranges of conditions, gradually expanding their ecological niche and geographic range? Gene flow across environments has two conflicting effects: although it increases genetic variation, which is a prerequisite for adaptation, gene flow may swamp adaptation to local conditions. In 1956, Haldane proposed that, when the environment varies across space, “swamping” by gene flow creates a positive feedback between low population size and maladaptation, leading to a sharp range margin. However, current deterministic theory shows that, when variance can evolve, there is no such limit. Using simple analytical tools and simulations, we show that genetic drift can generate a sharp margin to a species’ range, by reducing genetic variance below the level needed for adaptation to spatially variable conditions. Aided by separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales, the identified effective dimensionless parameters reveal a simple threshold that predicts when adaptation at the range margin fails. Two observable parameters determine the threshold: (i) the effective environmental gradient, which can be measured by the loss of fitness due to dispersal to a different environment; and (ii) the efficacy of selection relative to genetic drift. The theory predicts sharp range margins even in the absence of abrupt changes in the environment. Furthermore, it implies that gradual worsening of conditions across a species’ habitat may lead to a sudden range fragmentation, when adaptation to a wide span of conditions within a single species becomes impossible.

Limits to adaptation along environmental gradients

Why do species not adapt to ever-wider ranges of conditions, gradually expanding their ecological niche and geographic range? Gene flow across environments has two conflicting effects: while it increases genetic variation, which is a prerequisite for adaptation, gene flow may swamp adaptation to local conditions. In 1956, Haldane proposed that when the environment varies across space, ?swamping? by gene flow creates a positive feedback between low population size and maladaptation, leading to a sharp range margin. Yet, current deterministic theory shows that when variance can evolve, there is no such limit. Using simple analytical tools and simulations, we show that genetic drift can generate a sharp margin to a species' range, by reducing genetic variance below the level needed for adaptation to spatially variable conditions. Aided by separation of ecological and evolutionary time scales, the identified effective dimensionless parameters reveal a simple threshold that predicts when adaptation at the range margin fails. Two observable parameters determine the threshold: i) the effective environmental gradient, which can be measured by the loss of fitness due to dispersal to a different environment, and ii) the efficacy of selection relative to genetic drift. The theory predicts sharp range margins even in the absence of abrupt changes in the environment. Furthermore, it implies that gradual worsening of conditions across a species' habitat may lead to a sudden range fragmentation, when adaptation to a wide span of conditions within a single species becomes impossible.