Timescape: A Simple Spatiotemporal Interpolation Tool

We developed a novel approach in the field of spatiotemporal modelling, based on the spatialisation of time: the Timescape algorithm. It is especially aimed at sparsely distributed datasets in ecological research, whose spatial and temporal variability is strongly entangled. The algorithm is based on the definition of a spatiotemporal distance that incorporates a causality constraint and that is capable of accommodating the seasonal behaviour of the modelled variable as well. The actual modelling is conducted exploiting any established spatial interpolation technique, substituting the ordinary spatial distance with our Timescape distance, thus sorting, from the same input set of observations, those causally related to each estimated value at a given site and time. The notion of causality is expressed topologically and it has to be tuned for each particular case. The Timescape algorithm originates from the field of stable isotopes spatial modelling (isoscapes), but in principle it can be used to model any real scalar random field distribution.

Bayesian maximum entropy-based prediction of the spatiotemporal risk of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, China

Background “Schistosomiasis” is a highly recurrent parasitic disease that affects a wide range of areas and a large number of people worldwide. In China, schistosomiasis has seriously affected the life and safety of the people and restricted the economic development. Schistosomiasis is mainly distributed along the Yangtze River and in southern China. Anhui Province is located in the Yangtze River Basin of China, with dense water system, frequent floods and widespread distribution of Oncomelania hupensis that is the only intermediate host of schistosomiasis, a large number of cattle, sheep and other livestock, which makes it difficult to control schistosomiasis. It is of great significance to monitor and analyze spatiotemporal risk of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, China. We compared and analyzed the optimal spatiotemporal interpolation model based on the data of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, China and the spatiotemporal pattern of schistosomiasis risk was analyzed. Methods In this study, the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and absolute residual (AR) indicators were used to compare the accuracy of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), spatiotemporal Kriging (STKriging) and geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) models for predicting the spatiotemporal risk of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, China. Results The results showed that (1) daytime land surface temperature, mean minimum temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, soil moisture, soil bulk density and urbanization were significant factors affecting the risk of schistosomiasis; (2) the spatiotemporal distribution trends of schistosomiasis predicted by the three methods were basically consistent with the actual trends, but the prediction accuracy of BME was higher than that of STKriging and GTWR, indicating that BME predicted the prevalence of schistosomiasis more accurately; and (3) schistosomiasis in Anhui Province had a spatial autocorrelation within 20 km and a temporal correlation within 10 years when applying the optimal model BME. Conclusions This study suggests that BME exhibited the highest interpolation accuracy among the three spatiotemporal interpolation methods, which could enhance the risk prediction model of infectious diseases thereby providing scientific support for government decision making.

Handling Missing Data in Large-Scale MODIS AOD Products Using a Two-Step Model

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a key parameter that reflects the characteristics of aerosols, and is of great help in predicting the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere. At present, remote sensing inversion has become an important method for obtaining the AOD on a large scale. However, AOD data acquired by satellites are often missing, and this has gradually become a popular topic. In recent years, a large number of AOD recovery algorithms have been proposed. Many AOD recovery methods are not application-oriented. These methods focus mainly on to the accuracy of AOD recovery and neglect the AOD recovery ratio. As a result, the AOD recovery accuracy and recovery ratio cannot be balanced. To solve these problems, a two-step model (TWS) that combines multisource AOD data and AOD spatiotemporal relationships is proposed. We used the light gradient boosting (LightGBM) model under the framework of the gradient boosting machine (GBM) to fit the multisource AOD data to fill in the missing AOD between data sources. Spatial interpolation and spatiotemporal interpolation methods are limited by buffer factors. We recovered the missing AOD in a moving window. We used TWS to recover AOD from Terra Satellite’s 2018 AOD product (MOD AOD). The results show that the MOD AOD, after a 3 × 3 moving window TWS recovery, was closely related to the AOD of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) (R = 0.87, RMSE = 0.23). In addition, the MOD AOD missing rate after a 3 × 3 window TWS recovery was greatly reduced (from 0.88 to 0.1). In addition, the spatial distribution characteristics of the monthly and annual averages of the recovered MOD AOD were consistent with the original MOD AOD. The results show that TWS is reliable. This study provides a new method for the restoration of MOD AOD, and is of great significance for studying the spatial distribution of atmospheric pollutants.