Evaluation of Flood Routing Models and Their Relationship to The Hydraulic Properties of The Diyala River Bed

In this study, four types of flood routing approaches were studied which give significantly varied results represented by the differences between computed and observed flows and also differ considerably on the friction coefficient and bed slope of the channels. First two approaches use a hydraulic solution to solve the equations of unsteady flow, while the third approach uses the hydrological solution, and the fourth algorithm solves Muskingum approach with seven parameters. All these approaches were run with the same input parameters, the results were compared and tested with four Error Measurement Indices, Sum of Squared Deviations, Error of Peak Discharge, Variance Index, and agreement index. Diyala River was selected for this application. Dynamic wave method gave accurate results, followed by the characteristic method, and then the linear Muskingum-Cunge method, but Symbiotic Organisms Search Algorithm not gave any senses due to change in roughness or bed slope and gave very identical values with recorded outflow in all conditions, which means that the hydraulic solution is better compared to the hydrological solution. The results also showed that the difference between the calculated and observed flows diminished with a decrease in the coefficient of friction and an increase in the bed slope channel.

Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in the Diyala River basin, Iraq

Extreme climate and weather events have direct impacts on human life, the environment, and resources. The Diyala River basin is shared between Iraq and Iran, which makes it vulnerable not only to climate change effects but also to upstream control. Therefore, understanding and predicting extreme events is an essential step to help decision-makers make proactive plans to reduce expected damages. The pattern of extreme events has been identified using climate extreme indices developed by the World Meteorological Organization and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices using ClimPACT2 software. Data were obtained from three meteorological stations in Iraq (Sulaymania, Khanakin, and Baghdad) and one in Iran (Sanandaj) over a period of 20 years (2000–2020). Results for temperature showed seven statistically significant positive trends for only three indices (annual number of days with daily maximum temperature of >35°, difference between daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures, and percentage of days with maximum temperature of >90th percentile, indicating an increase in that temperature). Baghdad station had positive temperature trends for all indices. Trends for precipitation were nearly all nonsignificant and difficult to anticipate compared with those for temperature. Percentile-based indices showed more dry and warm events than wet and cold.

Flood Management of Diyala River

Diyala Governorate was recently exposed to high flood waves discharged from Hemrin Dam. Since the dam was at its full capacity during the flood period, these waves were discharged to the Diyala River. Because of the reduction in Diyala River capacity to 750m3/s, the cities and villages on both sides of the river banks were inundated. Thus, the study's objective is to design a flood escape out of the Diyala River, to discharge the flood wave through it. The flood escape simulation was done by using HEC- RAS software. Two hundred twenty-three cross sections for the escape and 30 cross-sections of the Diyala River were used as geometric data. Depending on the geological formation that the escape passed through, two roughness coefficients of 0.035 and 0.028 were applied. An outflow downstream Hemrin Dam varies from 1100m3/s to 1800m3/s was applied as boundary condition upstream Diyala River. One dimensional hydraulic model was developed for the escape and the river, the results showed that aside weir could be constructed at the escape entrance with crest level 67m.a.m.s.l. and 800m width, followed by drop structure of four rectangular steps, this case provides safe discharge to Diyala River if flood wave of 1500m3/s released from Hemrin Dam.

On the Investigation of Monthly River Flow Generation Complexity Using the Applicability of Machine Learning Models

Streamflow is associated with several sources on nonstationaries and hence developing machine learning (ML) models is always the motive to provide a reliable methodology to understand the actual mechanism of streamflow. The current research was devoted to generating monthly streamflows from annual streamflow. In this study, three different ML models were applied for this purpose, including Multiple Additive Regression Trees (MART), Group Methods of Data Handling (GMDH), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP). The models were developed based on annual streamflow and monthly time index of three rivers (i.e., Upper Zab, Lower Zab, and Diyala) located in the north region of Iraq. The modeling results indicated an optimistic simulation for generating the monthly streamflow time series from annual streamflow time series. The potential of the MART model was superior to the GMDH and GEP models for Upper Zab River (R2 0.84, 0.64, and 0.47), Lower Zab River (R2 0.75, 0.46, and 0.40), and Diyala River (R2 0.78, 0.42, and 0.5). The results of RMSE were 113, 169, and 208 for Upper Zab River, 95, 149, and 0.5 for Lower Zab River, and 73, 118, and 109 for Diyala River. The results have proved the possibility of changing the timescale in generating streamflow data.

Managing the Flood Waves from Hemrin Dam

Diyala Governorate was exposed recently to high flood waves discharged from Hemrin Dam to Diyala River when the dam reached its full capacity. The recently recorded discharge capacity of Diyala River was reduced to just 750m3/s. This exposes cities and villages along the Diyala River to flood risk when discharging the flood waves, which may reach 3000 m3/s. It is important to manage, suggest, and design flood escapes to discharge the flood waves from Hemrin Dam away from Diyala River. This escape branches from Hemrin Lake towards Ashweicha Marsh. One dimensional hydraulic model was developed to simulate the flow within the escape by using HEC-RAS software. Eighty-two cross-sections were extracted from the digital elevation model for the escape and used as geometric data. Moreover, thirty cross-sections for the Diyala River were utilized from the Strategic Study for Water and Land Resources in Iraq. Since the escape passes through two regions of different geological formations, two roughness coefficients of 0.035and0.028were used. Two discharge cases were applied3000m3/s, which is the 500 years return period extreme hydrograph of Hemrin Dam, and 4000 m3/s, which is the design discharge of Hemrin Dam spillway. A spillway was proposed at the escape entrance with crest level 105m.a.m.s.l., followed by a drop structure with eighteen rectangular steps

MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES OF WATER QUALITY IN TIGRIS RIVER WITHIN BAGHDAD CITY

This study was conducted to assess the water quality of Tigris River within Baghdad city by using Weighted Arithmetic model. The studay area included five sites: Thiraa-Tigris (S1), Al-Muthana bridge (S2), Al-Shuhadaa bridge (S3), Al-Doraa (S4) and confluence point of the Diyala river (S5). Ten water quality parameters were used in this study, Total Hardness (TH), Calcium (Ca), Hydrogen Ion concentration (pH), Chloride (Cl), Magnesium (Mg), Nitrate (NO3), Sodium (Na), Boron (B), Turbidity (TUR) and Sulfate (SO4). Statistical analysis such as correlation and regression coefficient using the statistical program SPSS was used to evaluate the results of the water quality index as well as to find a relationship between the water quality index and the variables. Several statistical methods, Factor Analysis (FA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Discriminant Analysis (DA), and Time Series Analysis assess parameters affecting water quality during the study period (August-December) 2019. The results showed Poor to Unsuitable quality index in Tigris River at Baghdad city except for Al-Muthna Bridge (S2) was grade good quality index during the time. From the analysis, that the worst water quality index was found at confluence place of Diyala River (S5) and grade unsuitable quality index.