Production and Trade Impacts of CAP Post 2022 Reform on Main Croatian Crop and Livestock Markets—Partial Equilibrium Modelling Approach

The Latest Common Agricultural Policy reform intends to expand and strengthen environmental and social support and to liberalise the delivery model carried out through strategic planning. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of the new CAP reform on the main agricultural markets in Croatia. The impact assessment is analysed using the AGMEMOD model where, in addition to the baseline scenario, three scenarios of potential changes are developed and compared to the baseline. Changes in market patterns (production, yield and net trade) at the end of the simulated period are compared with the baseline scenario results by 2030. The reduction in support levels to production, abolishment of voluntary coupled supports and introduction of additional environmental constraints have a significant impact on the main Croatian agricultural markets. Crop markets prov to be less dependent on subsidies, so that market pattern changes will not mean the loss of Croatia’s net export status for soft wheat, maize and soy beans, while barley no longer holds this status. Livestock sectors, especially beef and dairy, in addition to demonstrating a distinct lack of competitiveness even before the Croatian accession to the EU, additionally suffer significant production volume losses along with an increase in imports. Although significant, changes to the Croatian agricultural market are not dramatic enough to cause a complete production breakdown by 2030.

Direct Payments and Sustainable Agricultural Development—The Example of Poland

This paper aims to explore the importance of the direct-payments scheme as a tool for supporting the sustainable development of agriculture in Poland, and to assess the effects of the 2015 Common Agricultural Policy reform in this context. In particular, the study attempts to investigate the impact of different fund-allocation criteria on the regional distribution of direct payments. The research employs a simulation method in the form of variant analysis (the “what if” model)—a mathematical method with elements of statistical description, based on the complete dataset. For the purposes of one of the variants, a multi-criteria composite indicator was constructed, including stimulants and destimulants of the level of environmental sustainability of agricultural plant production. The analysis was conducted at the NUTS 2 level (voivodeships). The timeframe of the study covered the period 2010–2019. The data published by Statistics Poland and the Agency for the Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture were used as the source material. The analysis indicated that the 2015 Common Agricultural Policy reform redistributed public funds away from sustainable agricultural management principles. Applying some basic sustainability criteria in order to internalise environmental externalities would lead to a radical redistribution of first-pillar Common Agricultural Policy payments. The paper concludes that a real greening of the European Union’s agricultural policy is a task still to be accomplished.