Communicating Probability Information in Hurricane Forecasts: Assessing Statements that Forecasters Use on Social Media and Implications for Public Assessments of Reliability

Forecasters are responsible for predicting the weather and communicating risk with stakeholders and members of the public. This study investigates the statements that forecasters use to communicate probability information in hurricane forecasts and the impact these statements may have on how members of the public evaluate forecast reliability. We use messages on Twitter to descriptively analyze probability statements in forecasts leading up to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Florence from forecasters in three different groups: the National Hurricane Center, local Weather Forecast Offices, and in the television broadcast community. We then use data from a representative survey of United States adults to assess how members of the public wish to receive probability information and the impact of information format on assessments of forecast reliability. Results from the descriptive analysis indicate forecasters overwhelmingly use words and phrases in place of numbers to communicate probability information. In addition, the words and phrases forecasters use are generally vague in nature -- they seldom include rank adjectives (e.g., “low” or “high”) to qualify blanket expressions of uncertainty (e.g., “there is a chance of flooding”). Results from the survey show members of the public generally prefer both words/phrases and numbers when receiving forecast information. They also show information format affects public judgments of forecast reliability; on average, people believe forecasts are more reliable when they include numeric probability information.

Radio over Fiber: An Alternative Broadband Network Technology for IoT

Wireless broadband access networks have been positioning themselves as a good solution for manufacturers and users of IoT (internet of things) devices, due mainly to the high data transfer rate required over terminal devices without restriction of information format. In this work, a review of two Radio over Fiber strategies is presented. Both have excellent performance and even offer the possibility to extend wireless area coverage where mobile networks do not reach, or the 802.11 network presents issues. Radio Frequency over Fiber (RFoF) and intermediate Frequency over Fiber (IFoF) are two transmission strategies compatible with the required new broadband services and both play a key role in the design of the next generation integrated optical–wireless networks, such as 5G and Satcom networks, including on RAU (Remote Antenna Unit) new functionalities to improve their physical dimensions, employing a microelectronic layout over nanometric technologies.

Risk communication improvements for gambling: House-edge information and volatility statements

Objective: Some gambling product messages are designed to inform gamblers about the long-run cost of gambling, e.g., “this game has an average percentage payout of 90%.” This message is in the “return-to-player” format and is meant to convey that for every £100 bet about £90 will be paid out in prizes. Some previous research has found that restating this information in the “house-edge” format, e.g., “this game keeps 10% of all money bet on average”, is better understood by gamblers and reduces gamblers’ perceived chances of winning. Here we additionally test another potential risk communication improvement: a “volatility statement” highlighting that return-to-player and house-edge percentages are long-run statistical averages, which may not be experienced in any short period of gambling.Method: Gambling information format and volatility statement presence were manipulated in an online experiment involving 2,025 UK gamblers.Results: The house-edge format and the presence of volatility statements both additively reduced gamblers’ perceived chances of winning. In terms of gamblers’ understanding, house-edge messages were understood the best, but no consistent effect of volatility statements was observed.Conclusions: The return-to-player gambling messages in current widespread use can be improved by switching to the house-edge format and via the addition of a volatility statement.

Radio over Fiber: An Alternative Broadband Network Technology for IoT

Wireless broadband access networks have been positioning themselves as a good solution for manufacturers and users of IoT (internet of things) devices, due mainly to the high data transfer rate required over terminal devices without restriction of information format. In this work, a review of two Radio over Fiber strategies is presented. Both have excellent performance and even offer the possibility to extend wireless area coverage where mobile networks do not reach or the 802.11 network presents issues. Radio Frequency over Fiber (RFoF) and intermediate Frequency over Fiber (IFoF) are two transmission strategies compatible with the required new broadband services and both play a key role in the design of the next generation integrated optical–wireless networks, such as 5G and Satcom networks, including on RAU (Remote Antenna Unit) new functionalities to improve their physical dimensions, employing a microelectronic layout over nanometric technologies.

Mapping and semantic interoperability of the German RCD data model with the Europe-wide accepted CERIF

The provision, processing and distribution of research information are increasingly supported by the use of research information systems (RIS) at higher education institutions. National and international exchange formats or standards can support the validation and use of research information and increase their informative value and comparability through consistent semantics. The formats are very overlapping and represent different approaches to modeling. This paper presents the data model of the Research Core Dataset (RCD) and discusses its impact on data quality in RIS. Subsequently compares it with the Europe-wide accepted Common European Research Information Format (CERIF) standard to support the implementation of the RCD with CERIF compatibility in the RIS and so that institutions integrate their research information from internal and external heterogeneous data sources to ultimately provide valuable information with high levels of data quality. As these are fundamental to decision-making and knowledge generation as well as the presentation of research.