scholarly journals Communicating Probability Information in Hurricane Forecasts: Assessing Statements that Forecasters Use on Social Media and Implications for Public Assessments of Reliability

2021 ◽  
pp. 89-101
Author(s):  
Zoey Rosen ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
Rachael Cross ◽  
Emily Lenhardt ◽  
...  

Forecasters are responsible for predicting the weather and communicating risk with stakeholders and members of the public. This study investigates the statements that forecasters use to communicate probability information in hurricane forecasts and the impact these statements may have on how members of the public evaluate forecast reliability. We use messages on Twitter to descriptively analyze probability statements in forecasts leading up to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Florence from forecasters in three different groups: the National Hurricane Center, local Weather Forecast Offices, and in the television broadcast community. We then use data from a representative survey of United States adults to assess how members of the public wish to receive probability information and the impact of information format on assessments of forecast reliability. Results from the descriptive analysis indicate forecasters overwhelmingly use words and phrases in place of numbers to communicate probability information. In addition, the words and phrases forecasters use are generally vague in nature -- they seldom include rank adjectives (e.g., “low” or “high”) to qualify blanket expressions of uncertainty (e.g., “there is a chance of flooding”). Results from the survey show members of the public generally prefer both words/phrases and numbers when receiving forecast information. They also show information format affects public judgments of forecast reliability; on average, people believe forecasts are more reliable when they include numeric probability information.

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-68
Author(s):  
Raden Andriana Meirani ◽  
Ahmad Damiri ◽  
Jalaludin Jalaludin

This research was conducted at Pegadaian Jalancagak Subang Regency. Pegadaian is one of the financial institutions that offers Logam Mulia investment services, one of which is called MULIA (Murabahah Logam Mulia For Abadi Investment). Product Mulia is a financing offer to customers for the purchase of gold bars produced by PT. Aneka Tambang (ANTAM). This study aims to determine how MULIA product provisions, the application of the murabaha contract on MULIA products and the impact of MULIA products for pawnshops and the community. This type of research is qualitative using descriptive analysis method. Data sources used include primary and secondary data. From the results of the discussion the researchers found that there were several provisions in the application of the MULIA product murabahah in Pegadaian Jalancagak that were not in accordance with the provisions of the Shari'a, including; first concerning the object of the contract or Marhun which was not raised or did not exist during the contract. Second, the sanctions that are permitted according to the Shari'a are applicable to customers who are capable but neglect or postpone delay of payment but do not apply to customers who are truly unable to pay, but in its application at Jalancagak pawnshop requires all customers to receive sanctions or pay fines if unable pay without exception. Third, in the application of sanctions / fines regarding funds generated from fines input as corporate income, which according to Shari'a provisions should be intended for social funds


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
Marta Widyawati

This research aims to show the masculinity crisis experienced by a male character (a husband) due to the shift role of breadwinner in marriage in the short story "Huruf Terakhir" by Benny Arnas. This research is essential because it can demonstrate the impact of the wife's involvement to work in the public domain towards the husband's condition. This research is qualitative research by utilizing the concept of gender. Data collection techniques are carried out through document tracing on a short story "Huruf Terakhir" by Benny Arnas as the corpus.  The data obtained was analyzed using descriptive analysis method. The results showed that shifting role of breadwinner can cause a man (a husband) to experience a crisis of masculinity such as loss of independence, confidence, courage, assertiveness, and emotional control. The shifting role as breadwinner is also shown to open the opportunities for repression in women. Therefore, the research on the short story "Huruf Terakhir" is expected to contribute to the study of gender-sensitive literature, especially since it is able to show masculinity traits associated with the role of breadwinner can complicate men’s position and  potentially hinder women's freedom.


2015 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Drost ◽  
Jay Trobec ◽  
Christy Steffke ◽  
Julie Libarkin

Abstract Televised media is one of the most frequently accessed sources of weather information. The local weathercaster is the link between weather information and the public, and as such weathercaster characteristics, from vocal cadence to physical appearance, can impact viewer understanding. This study considers the role of weathercaster gesturing on viewer attention during weather forecasts. Two variations of a typical weather forecast were viewed by a total of 36 students during an eye tracking session. The first forecast variation contained physical gestures toward forecast text by the newscaster (Gesture condition) while the second variation contained minimal gesturing (No Gesture condition). Following each eye tracking session, students completed a retention survey related to the forecast. These data were used to identify areas of interest to which students attended during viewing and to ascertain how well the forecast was retained across the gesturing treatments. Study results suggest that the weathercaster’s gesturing during forecasts may have induced confusion among participants, but did not affect retention of the weather information investigated in the study. Gesturing diverted attention from other areas of interest within the forecast by encouraging participants to focus on the weathercaster’s hands. This study indicates that minor modifications to weathercaster behavior can produce significant changes in viewer behavior.


Author(s):  
Muhamad Lutfi ◽  
Ahmad Sobari ◽  
Rofi’ah Rofi’ah

<p>The concept of fostering Hizb ut-Tahrir and its impact on youth morals in the city of Bogor. This study discusses the concept of fostering Hizb ut-Tahrir and its impact on adolescent morals in the city of Bogor. The research objectives are (1) to find out the concept of coaching Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia for adolescents in the city of Bogor, (2) to find out the propaganda activities of Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia in adolescent moral development in the city of Bogor, (3) to find out the impact of the coaching conducted by Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia on the morals of adolescents in the city of Bogor. In this study using a qualitative approach with descriptive analysis method. In this study researchers used interview techniques in data collection. Interviews were conducted directly and in depth to and use snowball sampling. The results obtained that the concept of coaching carried out by the Hizb ut-Tahrir DPD in the City of Bogor towards adolescent moral development is tastqif hos and tastqif amm or general coaching and special coaching. Tastqif hos is a special coaching for the members and sympathizers of Hizb ut-Tahrir while tastqif amm is coaching for the general public and holding demonstrations to broadcast Islam to the public and to criticize non-Islamic policies. Hizb ut-Tahrir's activity is to carry out Islamic da'wah to change the condition of a damaged society into an Islamic society, by turning ideas into Islamic ideas, so that they will become public opinion in the community, and become a perception for them, which will encourage and implement it in accordance with the demands of Islam. Of the nine respondents who were the object of research, the authors found that the concept of coaching carried out by Hizb ut-Tahrir was very effective. Because the data from the nine respondents the researchers got, all the respondents felt a very positive impact when attending coaching on the Hizb ut-Tahrir<em>.</em></p><p><em></em><strong>Abs</strong><strong>trak</strong></p><p>Konsep Pembinaan Hizbut Tahrir Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Akhlak Remaja Di Kota Bogor. Penelitian ini membahas tentang Konsep Pembinaan Hizbut Tahrir Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Akhlak Remaja Di Kota Bogor. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah (1) Untuk mengetahui konsep pembinaan Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia bagi remaja di Kota Bogor, (2) Untuk mengetahui kegiatan dakwah Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia dalam pembinaan akhlak remaja di Kota Bogor, (3) Untuk mengetahui dampak dari pembinaan yang dilakukan Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia terhadap akhlak remaja di Kota Bogor. Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode deskriptif analisis. Dalam penelitian ini peneliti menggunakan teknik wawancara dalam pengumpulan data. Wawancara dilakukan secara langsung dan mendalam untuk serta menggunakan <em>snowball sampling</em>. Hasil yang diperoleh bahwa konsep pembinaan yang dilakukan Hizbut Tahrir DPD Kota Bogor terhadap pembinaan akhlaq remaja adalah tastqif hos dan tastqif amm atau pembinaan umum dan pembinaan khusus. Tastqif hos merupakan pembinaan husus bagi para anggota dan simpatisan Hizbut Tahrir sedangkan tastqif amm adalah pembinaan yang dilakukan untuk masyarakat umum dan melakukan unjuk rasa untuk mensyiarkan Islam ke publik dan untuk mengkritisi kebijakan yang tidak Islami. Kegiatan Hizbut Tahrir adalah mengemban dakwah Islam untuk merubah kondisi masyarakat yang rusak menjadi masyarakat Islam, dengan merubah ideide menjadi ide-ide Islam, sehingga akan menjadi opini umum di tengah-tengah masyarakat, serta menjadi persepsi bagi mereka, yang akan mendorongnya untuk merealisir dan menerapkannya sesuai dengan tuntutan Islam. Dari sembilan responden yang menjadi objek peneltian, penulis menemukan bahwasannya konsep pembinaan yang dilakukan Hizbut Tahrir terbilang sangat efektif. Karena data dari sembilan responden yang peneliti dapatkan, semua responden merasakan dampak yang sangat positif ketika mengikuti pembinaan di Hizbut Tahrir.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-259
Author(s):  
Nurlaili Nurlaili

Money waqf can be used to overcome socio-economic problems that occur in Indonesia, this should be an opportunity to respond to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. As stated in the maqasid sharia concept, responding to a pandemic requires strategic and clear goals. This research paper aims to analyze whether the use of cash waqf has been optimally utilized or not at the time of covid 19, as well as cash waqf in terms of maqasid shariah. This study uses qualitative methods, using descriptive analysis in library research. The results of this study indicate that the use of cash waqf in Indonesia is still not optimal in overcoming the impact of this pandemic, there are several regions that still do not feel the distribution of the use of cash waqf. From the maqasid shari'ah point of view, the use of cash waqf is in accordance with As-Syatibi's description of the three mandatory concepts, namely "dharuriyah, hajiyah and tahsiniyah". This study provides advice to stakeholders such as scholars, universities, or schools and the government together provide understanding to the public regarding money waqf, with the many understandings of money waqf in Indonesia, of course adding nominal cash waqf funds to be utilized according to socio-economic needs in Indonesia and can make social networks to help micro-communities in need Keywords: Waqf money, covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia, Maqasid Shari'ah   ABSTRAK. Waqf uang dapat diperuntukan mengatasi masalah sosial-ekonomi yang terjadi di Indonesia, hal ini harusnya dapat menjadi sebuah peluang untuk merespons dampak dari pandemic Covid-19. Sebagaimana tertuang dalam konsep maqashid syariah, merespons pandemi membutuhkan tujuan yang strategis dan jelas. Makalah penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis penggunaan waqf uang telah dimanfaatkan secara optimal atau belum pada saat covid 19, serta waqf uang ditinjau dari maqasid shariah. Pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif, dengan menggunakan analisis-deskriptif pada penelitian library research (kepustakaan). Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan waqf uang di Indonesia masih belum optimal dalam mengatasi dampak dari pandemi ini, terdapat beberapa daerah yang masih belum merasakan pemerataan dari pemanfaatan waqf uang. Dari sudut maqasid shari’ah, penggunaan waqf uang telah sesuai dengan uraian As-Syatibi tentang tiga konsep wajib, yaitu “dharuriyah, hajiyah dan tahsiniyah”. Penelitian ini memberikan saran kepada stakeholder seperti para ulama, universitas atau sekolah dan pemerintah bersama-sama memberikan pemahaman kepada masyarakat terkait wafqf uang, dengan banyaknya pemahaman waqf uang di Indonesia tentu menambahkan nominal dana waqf uang untuk dapat dimanfaatkan sesuai dengan kebutuhan sosial-ekonomi di Indonesia dan dapat menjadikan jaringan sosial untuk membantu masyarakat mikro yang membutuhkan. Kata kunci: Waqf uang, pandemi covid-19 di Indonesia, Maqasid Shari’ah


PERSPEKTIF ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 692-709
Author(s):  
Andi Elkana Ginting ◽  
M. Arif Nasution ◽  
Heri Kusmanto

The purpose of this research is to know and analyze the recruitment process, the impact of the recruitment pattern of the election organizers at the level of the Voting Organizing Group in Medan Selayang District, Medan City on the Integrity of the 2019 Concurrent General Elections. The form of this research is qualitative research with descriptive analysis, to describe and explains in depth the recruitment pattern of election organizers for the Voting Organizing Group (KPPS) which is the spearhead of the implementation of voting and counting of votes in the 2019 Election. The impact of the recruitment pattern of general election organizers at the KPPS level in Medan Selayang District, Medan City on the Integrity of the General Election Concurrent Years 2019, linked by scrutiny, has had a positive impact. Supervision from Bawaslu that has been getting better, the rules and implementing regulations set by the KPU are detailed. Bawaslu already has a very good system. This supervision plays an important role in its implementation to maintain the code of ethics of the organizers, one of which is integrity. The positive impact is evident from the fact that KPPS Medan Selayang is able to carry out its duties properly, following established procedures and regulations, there are no reports of complaints, either from Bawaslu, witnesses from parties / pairs of candidates, or the public. The election activities were carried out in an orderly and conducive manner, according to schedule, and the counting of votes was transparent. KPPS is wise. The public can exercise their voting rights in an orderly and comfortable manner. TPS locations are well prepared. Good approach and communication with local residents.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 267-274
Author(s):  
Jan Taylor Morris ◽  
Jason Porter ◽  

This instructional case explores ethical and leadership issues within the context of public accounting. The case examines one senior manager in a public accounting firm who failed to receive an anticipated promotion to partner and the resulting discussions and actions that follow. The primary objectives of the case are (1) to increase students’ awareness of select ethical issues commonly faced by auditors as they attempt to serve the public trust, their clients, and their firms, and (2) to consider their own value system in relation to the issues identified in this case. The secondary learning objectives are to (1) increase students’ knowledge of the AICPA Code of Professional Conduct / IESBA Code of Ethics, (2) encourage consideration of the impact of ethical and unethical behaviors by auditors on others within the profession, and (3) illustrate how leadership within an organization influences the behaviors of others.


Author(s):  
Emily D. Lenhardt ◽  
Rachel N. Cross ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
Sean R. Ernst ◽  
...  

One of the challenges when communicating forecast information to the public is properly contextualizing uncertainty. No forecast is ever certain, as no meteorological phenomenon is guaranteed to occur. As such, the uncertainty in forecast information should be communicated in a way that makes sense to end users. Previous studies of the communication of probabilistic information suggest that, although the general public are more apt to communicate uncertainty with words of estimative probability (WEPs), they prefer to receive uncertainty information numerically. Other work has suggested that a combination of numbers and WEPs is the best method for communicating probability, but fewer research studies have assessed the communication and interpretation of probabilistic meteorological information. In this study, we code 8900 tweets from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and analyze them to find how forecasters communicate probabilistic forecast information to the public via Twitter. This analysis reveals that WFO messaging is dominated by WEPs, with few numerical descriptions of probability. These WEPs are generally vague, unqualified notions of probability that may impede the public’s ability to interpret the information that forecasters are trying to communicate. Based on this analysis, two publicly fielded surveys also are analyzed in order to understand how participants tend to interpret the most common qualified and unqualified WEPs that WFOs used on Twitter. Though participants generally interpret qualified WEPs more consistently than unqualified WEPs, both categories featured a wide range of interpretations that suggest both types of WEPs are vaguely defined for the general public.


Dialog ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-274
Author(s):  
Muhammad Radya Yudantiasa

This article examines the problems of intra/interreligious dialogue that occurred after the 2019 presidential election. The focus of this study is to analyse the impact of Islamic populism on the sustainability of dialogue in Indonesia. The trend of Islamic populism is basically narrative and analytic of Indonesian political studies. The political contestation has an impact on the intra/inter-religious dialogue problems or even transcending ethnic and group boundaries. This situation requires intense dialogue among scholars, activists, elites, religious leaders and society members. This research is a library research using descriptive-analysis method. The main theory in this research is agonistic theory. This theory sees the conflict from more positive ways. This article argues that the discourse and the narration of moderate Islam needs to be brought into public sphere. Hence, the peaceful characters of Islam and tolerant Islam become the dominant colors of Islam in the public sphere. Artikel ini mengungkap kembali problematika tentang dialog pasca pemilihan presiden 2019. Fokus dari artikel ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh dari populisme Islam terhadap keberlanjutan dialog di Indonesia. Tren dari populisme Islam pada dasarnya merupakan sebuah narasi dan analisis yang banyak dikaji dalam lingkup studi politik di Indonesia. Peristiwa kontestasi politik yang terjadi di dalam pemilihan presiden 2019 menunjukkan adanya permasalahan terhadap dialog dalam/antar agama dan bahkan melampaui batas-batas etnik maupun kelompok agama. Situasi ini meniscayakan para aktor-aktor dialog dari kalangan akademisi, aktivis, elit politik, pemuka agama, dan masyarakat untuk terlibat dalam kontestasi ini. Penelitian ini merupakan studi kepustakaan (library research) dengan menggunakan metode deskriptif-analisis. Teori utama yang digunakan dalam artikel ini adalah teori agonistik (agonistic theory). Teori ini berfungsi untuk melihat konflik dalam sudut pandang yang positif. Artikel ini menyimpulkan bahwa klaim tentang wacana dan narasi Islam yang moderat harus muncul untuk dikontestasikan dalam ruang publik. Dengan demikian, wajah asli Islam yang damai, toleran dan rahmatan lil-‘alamin akan menjadi wajah yang dominan dalam ruang publik.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Sulistianawati Sulistianawati

ABSTRAKPribumi subaltern menjadi subjek nyata adanya gejolak penindasan oleh serdadu pemerintah dan gerakan bawah tanah dalam situasi Aceh yang telah beralih menjadi Daerah Operasi Mililiter. Tujuan penelitian ini mendeskripsikan penyalahgunaan tahta tertinggi, adanya pemberontakan gerakan bawah tanah sebagai bentuk perlawanan, dampaknya bagi kaum subaltern seperti pelecehan seksual, mentalitas down, dan dimiskinkan. Data diperoleh dengan teknik pustaka dari sumber tertulis berupa kata dan kalimat dalam novel kemudian dianalisis dengan metode analisa deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukan dominasi kekuasaan penguasa superior yang menduduki tahta tertinggi, dua bentuk perlawanan berupa caci maki serta aksi pemberontakan, dan dampaknya bagi subaltern begitu signifikan memunculkan keterpurukan, semakin merajalela pelecehan seksual, mentalitas down akhirnya termiskinkan. Pada akhirnya subaltern semakin lemah, ketakutan dan tak berdaya. Adanya persekutuan pemberontak sebagai akibat mentalitas era kolonial yang masih menjarah pemikiran masyarakat. Pada dasarnya penjajahlah yang menjadi cikal bakal adanya teroris dan pemberontakan. Penelitian ini diharapkan memberikan sumbangsih untuk mendukung kebijakan pemerintah mendisiplinkan politik agar tidak mengalami carut-marut. Serta menjadi pengingat bagi masyarakat akan masih adanya gerakan bawah tanah dalam bentuk apapun yang mengancam keberlangsungan hidup masyarakat lain, dalam menghadapi kolonialisme yang masih berkembang hingga saat ini.Kata kunci: subaltern, poskolonial, perlawanan, pemberontakABSTRACTSubaltern natives are the real subject of the turmoil of oppression by government troops and underground movements in the Aceh situation which has turned into the Military Operations Area. The purpose of this study is to describe the abuse of the highest throne, the existence of an underground movement rebellion as a form of resistance, the impact on the subalterns such as sexual harassment, down mentality, and impoverished. Data obtained by library techniques from written sources in the form of words and sentences in the novel and then analyzed by descriptive analysis method. The results showed the dominance of the power of superior rulers who occupied the highest throne, two forms of resistance there are in the form of insults and acts of rebellion, and the impact on subalterns was so significant that it leds to adversity, increasingly rampant sexual harassment, the down mentality finally impoverished. In the end the subaltern is getting weaker, frightened and helpless. The existence of the rebel alliance is as a result of the mentality of the colonial era which still plundered the minds of the people. Basically, invaders are the embryo of terrorists and rebellion. This research is expected to contribute to support government policy to discipline politics. Therefore, it does not experience chaos. As well as a reminder to the public of the existence of underground movements in any form that threatens the survival of other communities, in the face of colonialism that is still developing today.Keyword: subaltern, postcolonial, resistance, rebel


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