scholarly journals Risk communication improvements for gambling: House-edge information and volatility statements

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Warren Stirling Newall ◽  
Lukasz Walasek ◽  
Elliot Andrew Ludvig
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Online Experiment ◽  
Edge Information ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Consistent Effect ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Information Format

Objective: Some gambling product messages are designed to inform gamblers about the long-run cost of gambling, e.g., “this game has an average percentage payout of 90%.” This message is in the “return-to-player” format and is meant to convey that for every £100 bet about £90 will be paid out in prizes. Some previous research has found that restating this information in the “house-edge” format, e.g., “this game keeps 10% of all money bet on average”, is better understood by gamblers and reduces gamblers’ perceived chances of winning. Here we additionally test another potential risk communication improvement: a “volatility statement” highlighting that return-to-player and house-edge percentages are long-run statistical averages, which may not be experienced in any short period of gambling.Method: Gambling information format and volatility statement presence were manipulated in an online experiment involving 2,025 UK gamblers.Results: The house-edge format and the presence of volatility statements both additively reduced gamblers’ perceived chances of winning. In terms of gamblers’ understanding, house-edge messages were understood the best, but no consistent effect of volatility statements was observed.Conclusions: The return-to-player gambling messages in current widespread use can be improved by switching to the house-edge format and via the addition of a volatility statement.

scholarly journals House-edge information and a volatility warning reduce gambling initiation and persistence: superior alternatives to return-to-player percentages

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Warren Stirling Newall ◽  
Christopher Byrne ◽  
Alex M T Russell ◽  
Matthew Rockloff
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Public Health Approach ◽  
Edge Information ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Electronic Gambling Machines ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Electronic Gambling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Related Harm

Cost-of-play information is one public health intervention recommended to help reduce gambling-related harm. In the UK, this information is given on electronic gambling machines in a format known as the “return-to-player”, e.g., “This game has an average percentage payout of 90%.” However, previous evidence suggests that this information could be improved by equivalently restating it in terms of the “house-edge”, e.g., “This game keeps 10% of all money bet.” A “volatility warning,” stating that this information applies only in the statistical long-run, has also been recommended to help gamblers understand cost-of-play information. However, there is no evidence comparing these information provisions’ effect on gamblers’ behavior. An experiment tested US gamblers’(N=2,433) incentivized behavior in an online slot machine, where this information was manipulated between-participants along with a counter showing the total amount bet. Preregistered analyses showed that participants gambled significantly less when house-edge information or a volatility warning were shown compared to standard return-to-player information, with no effect of the total amount bet counter, and no significant interaction effects. These results suggest that improved cost-of-play information could benefit a public health approach to gambling.

scholarly journals Research On Monetary Neutrality: Evidence From Exchange Rate And Trade Balance Of G-7 Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Doh-Khul Kim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Monetary Neutrality ◽  
Nominal Shocks

<p class="MsoBodyText" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">According to a recent paper by Fisher and Huh (200</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">2</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">), in contrast to a long-run neutrality hypothesis, nominal shocks have long-run effects on a country&rsquo;s real exchange rate</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> and trade balance.</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> However employing </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">a </span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">similar method (VAR) with identical restrictions (</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">long-run neutrality and </span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">short-run recursive</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> hypotheses</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">), </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">this paper </span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">show</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">s</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> that the effects on the real exchange rate are much shorter</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> in this G-7 country study</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> than what </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">Fisher and Huh (2002) contend.</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> Further, the trade balance improves for a short period of time, from which </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">it can</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> conclude there is a shorter existence of the depreciation effect in response to </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">expansionary</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> monetary shocks, which supports the long-run neutrality hypothesis</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> in an open macroeconomic framework</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span></span></p>

scholarly journals Gambling warning labels: Differing effects of message length and message format

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Warren Stirling Newall ◽  
Lukasz Walasek ◽  
Elliot Andrew Ludvig
Keyword(s):  
Potential Risk ◽  
Court Case ◽  
Warning Labels ◽  
Electronic Gambling Machines ◽  
Message Length ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Electronic Gambling ◽  
Objective Understanding ◽  
Message Format ◽  
Better Than

“Return-to-player” warning labels are used to display the long-run cost of gambling on electronic gambling machines in several jurisdictions. For example, a return-to-player of 90% means that for every $100 bet on average $90 is paid out in prizes. Some previous research suggests that gamblers perceive a lower chance of winning and have a better objective understanding when return-to-player information is instead restated in the “house-edge” format, e.g., “This game keeps 10% of all money bet on average.” Here we test another potential risk communication improvement: making return-to-player messages longer, by clarifying that the information applies only in the statistical long-run. It was suggested that gamblers might understand this message better than the return-to-player at the conclusion of a court case brought against an Australian casino. In this study, Australian participants (N = 603) were presented with either a standard return-to-player message, a longer “return-to-players” message, or a house-edge message. The longer return-to-players message was understood correctly more frequently than the return-to-player message, but the house-edge message was understood best of all. Participants perceived the lowest chance of winning with the longer return-to-players message. The house-edge format appears easiest for gamblers to correctly understand, but longer warning labels might be the best at warning gamblers about the long-run costs of gambling on electronic gambling machines.

Keynes, Kalecki and Metzler in a dynamic distribution model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuele Bibi
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suggested Model ◽  
Adaptive Expectations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Economic Statistics ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Behaviour ◽  
The Government

Abstract This paper focuses on the dynamics analysis from the ultra-short to the short period from a Post-Keynesian perspective. It is argued that the construction of both the short-run and the long-run models are based on the critical assumption of an equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Starting from the work by Metzler (1941. The nature and stability of inventory cycles, The Review of Economic Statistics, 113–29), the issue of equilibrium and stability is investigated inside a Keynesian–Kaleckian perspective. The suggested model analyses under which conditions the standard Kaleckian conclusions are still valid considering a disequilibrium situation. Two scenarios are simulated: one with fixed expectations as in Metzler (1941. The nature and stability of inventory cycles, The Review of Economic Statistics, 113–29) and another based on adaptive expectations and asymmetric behaviour of the wages–unemployment relation. The model questions the effective demand labour curve and suggests that an increase in real autonomous expenditures, mainly by the government, might be even more essential than what is generally considered in the Kaleckian literature, to avoid increasing unemployment a world with increasing wages.

scholarly journals Le marché immobilier : quelques perspectives à long terme pour la région de Trois-Rivières

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-163
Author(s):  
L. M. Farrell
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Listing Service ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Transaction Price

Abstract The results of any analysis of local real estate markets must be qualified interms of the long run equilibrium conditions assumed in the study. Such propertycharacteristics as: non homogeneity, durability, length of response lag time, etc.,are frequently suggested as major factors which contribute to the inefficiency ofreal estate markets. Periods of prolonged exogeneous inflationary expectations,which may be indicated by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), addfurther complexity to the analysis of real estate markets. This paper presents a brief discussion of the factors which influence thesupply and demand for Real Estate. Special reference is made to the City ofTrois-Rivières, Québec, which is analysed over the ten year period 1971 to 1981. In this market the impact of changes in income on long run demand would appearto be negative. The effect of demographic factors, particularly population in the25 to 34 year age group, is not clear. There is some indication of a shift in supplyacross submarkets over the 1976-1979 time period. Price changes, measured in current dollars using the Multiple Listing Service(MLS) average transaction price, increased approximately 200 per cent over arelatively short period in the early 1970s. Most of this appreciation appears tohave been lost over the longer time period of the study. Average MLS transaction price, adjusted for inflation, fluctuated between$12,000 and $28,000 over the same period. After appropriate qualification of the results, in terms of the data and themethodology used to analyse the data, it would appear that housing prices in theaggregated Trois-Rivières market have not increased appreciably in current orconstant dollars over the period 1971-1981 although this may not have been thecase in particular submarkets.

scholarly journals Using Mathematical and Statistical Model to Forecast the Path of Infection by Covid-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarek Omara ◽  
Khaled A. Harby
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Weibull Model ◽  
Time Curve ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Nonlinear Growth ◽  
First Case ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Saudi Arabia, like any other part of the earthly globe, has been exposed to the Covid-19 pandemic. The first case appeared on March 3, 2020, followed by an increase in the number of infections until it reached thousands with the numbers on the rise. Therefore, adopting clear strategies to deal with the pandemic according to specific data on its size is necessary. In this study, the time series of the number of infections and deaths were analyzed to study the behavior of the pandemic over time. The cumulative curve of the phenomenon was analyzed to show the extent of the pandemic's decline or spread. On the other hand, the time curve of the number of cases of the pandemic was fitted based on a set of mathematical and statistical models, which were divided into three sections [nonlinear growth model, Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model, regression model] to attain the best possible fitting of the relationship curve. The results show that the Weibull model and Polynomial model at (n = 4) are the best models for fitting the relationship at short run and the SEIR model gives better relationship fitting at long run. In conclusion, there is a tendency for the disease to decline during the short period, while expecting other waves of the epidemic that will recede in the long term with the emergence of a suitable vaccine.

scholarly journals GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE FOR BUSINESS UNDER CONDITIONS OF THE CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Оleksandra Viter ◽  
Oksana Kylyn ◽  
Natalia Sveleba
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Business Survival ◽  
Credit Lines ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The World

The article analyzes the current state of the tourism business market. Crisis phenomena in tourism caused by COVID-19 are considered. It is noted that the outbreak of coronavirus has caused a significant blow to the world economy and as a result it affects key sectors of the economy. According to experts, the current crisis has a much greater sudden financial impact than on September 11 and the crisis of 2009 combined. It was found that according to UN WTO forecasts in 2020 the number of international tourists due to the coronavirus pandemic decreased by 20-30% compared to 2019. According to the updated IMF forecast, in 2020 world GDP will shrink by 4.9%, the world economy will lose $ 12.5 trillion. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is calling for more funds to rehabilitate and support the tourism industry so that it can become a leader in economic recovery. The purpose of the measures implemented by governments during this difficult period can be divided into the following categories: to ensure a balance between the protection of tourists and the interests of tourism workers; provide conditions for business survival and targeted support and recovery of the tourism sector. Most countries focus on both approaches. Countries with more developed economies rely mainly on affordable credit lines which will restore the competitiveness of the national economy in a short period of time. Other countries are focusing on delaying tax and debt obligations, which could negatively affect the economy in the long run and lead to long-term budget deficits and general solvency problems. In order to stabilize the economic situation, governments adopt a range of both monetary and fiscal measures that can partially provide the conditions for business survival, as the tourism industry can become one of the drivers that helps the economy emerge from the crisis and can quickly create new jobs after crisis situations. Therefore, it is important that the measures taken by states to support the tourism business, the implementation of which will reduce the level of negative impact of the pandemic on the economy of the tourism industry.

scholarly journals Absorption of EU funds in the context of Polish enterprises competitiveness measured by profitability ratios

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Wildowicz-Giegiel ◽  
Adam Wyszkowski
Keyword(s):  
Firm Level ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Innovative Economy ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Core Capabilities ◽  
The Impact

Competitiveness at the firm level is a subject of interest not only to managers and policy makers but also academics. An effective functioning under the conditions of new economy requires from the enterprises to develop their core capabilities and talents along with the ability to quickly identify and seize the opportunities generated by market environment. The implementation of such an approach allows the creation and sustain of economic surpluses in the long-run. The paper aims to examine the profitability of enterprises in Poland which is regarded in the context of absorption of EU funds in years 2007–2013. Taking into account that Poland became one of the largest beneficiaries, it is worth analyzing the impact of EU funding on the economic performance of Polish enterprises. The paper offers a critical reflection on the relationship between the absorption of EU funds and Polish enterprises competitiveness on the basis of  the content analysis literature and statistical data derived from the European Commission, the Central Statistical Office and the Ministry of Regional Development. It is assumed simultaneously that the competitiveness of enterprises is expressed in the term of profitability rates. In spite of limitations which relate to the adopted definition of competitiveness and the short period of the conducted analysis concerning the key relationship, the paper contributes to the debate on the significance of EU Funds in the process of building modern and innovative economy.

scholarly journals Socio-Economic Determinants of Employment: A Case study of Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-82
Author(s):  
Muhammad Atif Adeem ◽  
Muhammad Sibt-e-Ali ◽  
Raheel Akhtar
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
High Level

This research is the foremost determination to investigate the long and short run affiliation amongst the variables of employment. For this purpose we use ARDL bound tests. The data from the period of 1972 to 2016 has been used in this research. These results indicate that employment has statistically significant and positive relationship between the variables of employment. Orders of integration of variables used in this analysis are I (O) and I (1). The results of this study show that per capita of GDP and expenditures of government have significant positive relationship with the employment in both time periods, the short and long run. Thenoteworthyempirical relationship is found in long run between GFCF, while in short period of time it shows destructive relation with employment. While FDI shows a high level of significant and positive relation both in long run and short run. Secondary school enrolment has significant and positive relation with employment in both time periods the long and short run time period. The relationship of money supply with employment in long run is positive while in short run it shows significant but negative relation with employment. Trade and political stability both are the main factors to estimate the strength of an economy. According to this study trade and political stability shows significant and positive relation with employment in long run while in short run both shows negative relationship with employment.

scholarly journals The usefulness of graphic illustrations in online dictionaries

ReCALL ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Anna Dziemianko
Keyword(s):  
English Learners ◽  
Online Experiment ◽  
Online Learners ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Second Best ◽  
Line Drawings ◽  
Long Run

Abstract The aim of the paper is to investigate the usefulness of different illustration formats in online English learners’ dictionaries for the accuracy and speed of meaning comprehension as well as immediate and delayed retention. In a controlled online experiment, the meaning of selected English words and phrases had to be explained with the help of purpose-built monolingual dictionary entries. Four experimental conditions were created, which reflected the presence and format of illustrations in the entries: color pictures, greyscale pictures, line drawings, no illustrations. Meaning retention was checked immediately after exposure and two weeks later. The results show that it is worthwhile to include illustrations in online learners’ dictionaries and suggest the most beneficial illustration formats. Line drawings prove the most recommendable; they considerably improve meaning comprehension, reduce reception time, and stimulate the best immediate and delayed retention. Color pictures emerge as the second best. They produce results comparable with those for line drawings, except they do not help so much to remember meaning in the long run. Entries with greyscale pictures are the least recommendable. They do not contribute more to meaning comprehension and delayed retention. Yet, they even shorten reception time and help users to remember more words immediately after exposure.

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