Does Socioeconomic Environment Is A Risk Factor For Malaria In Senegal ? A DHS Data Analysis of Malaria Trends From 2010 To 2016 In Senegal

Introduction Analysis of the evolution of malaria will help address the determinants of malaria elimination in this country. The aim of this study is to analyze the evolution of malaria in Senegal from 2010 to 2016.MethodsThis article uses data from the Senegalese Demographic and Health Surveys (for 2010-2011, 2012-2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. To assess the factors associated with the positivity of the RDT, a multivariate logistic analysis was conducted to account for the effect of confounding factors. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated with their 95% confidence intervals. The dependent variable was the result of the Malaria rapid diagnostic test. ResultsThe malaria prevalence rate varies from 3.01% in 2010 to 0.87% in 2016. The risk factors associated with the evolution of malaria were the age of the child (4 years (aOR=1.82 [1.14-2.89]) and 5 years (aOR=1.98 [1.21-3.25]). The richest wealth quintile was a protective factor against malaria with aOR=0.02 [0-0.18]. Other protective factors against malaria were the construction characteristics of the houses. These are houses with improved wall and roof materials with aOR 0.45 [0.24-0.85] and 0.48 [0.25-0.93] respectively.Conclusion Factors associated with the evolution of malaria in Senegal are children’s age, level of wealth of the household and type of dwelling in the house. It should be noted that the level of development of countries, by influencing better living conditions for communities, remains an important prerequisite for the elimination of malaria in the African sub region and in Senegal in particular.

Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming

A counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in epidemic size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With statistical analyses and a process-based transmission model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in climate variability, especially ENSO. Decadal changes in temperature and concurrent climate variability facilitated rather than opposed the effect of interventions.

Surveillance-based estimation of the malaria disease burden in a low endemic state of Punjab, India, targeted for malaria elimination

Background The state of Punjab in India qualifies for malaria elimination because the number of cases reported through routine surveillance is in decline. However, surveillance system prevalence mainly provides malaria trends. Therefore, a prospective epidemiological study was designed to estimate the malaria burden in the state. Methods District-wise annual parasite incidence (API) was used for identification of three strata, representing high, moderate and low API zones. A total of 0.9 million people from nine districts was under malaria surveillance for 1 y. The weighted estimates of API for the three regions was calculated and combined to give an estimate of API for the total population of the state. Results Based upon the primary data generated, malaria cases from high, moderate and low malaria-endemic areas were estimated to be 3727, 904 and 106, respectively. Further, the total number of malaria cases in the state was estimated to be 4737 (95% CI 4006 to 5469) cases per annum. Conclusion Actual burden of malaria in the state of Punjab, India, is about seven to eight times higher than that reported by routine surveillance activities. However, the state still qualifies for malaria elimination but needs vigorous efforts to strengthen the active surveillance and reporting system along with implementation of effective control strategies to achieve malaria elimination.

Eight-year Retrospective Analysis of Malaria Trends in Gedeo Zone, South Ethiopia (2012-2019)

Background: Informed decision making is underlined by all level of the tiers in the health system. Poor data record system coupled with under- (over)-reporting of malaria cases affects the country’s elimination activities. Thus, malaria data at health facilities and health offices are important particularly to monitor and evaluate malaria elimination progresses. This study was intended to assess overall reported malaria cases, spatiotemporal trends and factors associated in Gedeo zone, South Ethiopia, and compare malaria case reports by the health centers and health offices.Methods: Past eight years retrospective data stored in 17 health centers and 5 district health offices in Gedeo Zone were extracted. Malaria cases data at each health center with sociodemographic information, between 2012 and 2019, were included. Meteorological data were obtained from the national meteorology agency. The data were analyzed using Stata 13.Results: A total of 485,414 clinical suspects were examined for malaria during the previous 8 years at health centers. Of these suspects, 57,228 (11.79%) were confirmed malaria cases. We noted, an overall under reporting of malaria, 3,758 clinical suspects and 467 confirmed malaria cases were not captured at the health offices level. Based on the health centers records, Plasmodium falciparum (49.74%) was slightly higher (p = 0.795) than P. vivax (47.59%). The majority of cases were found in adults (≥15 years of age) that accounted for 11.47% of confirmed malaria cases (p < 0.0001). There was high spatiotemporal variation: highest cases record was during autumn (12.55%) (p < 0.0001) and, the highest (18,150, 13.17%)) and lowest (5,187 (10.44%)) malaria cases were reported from Dilla town and Yirgacheffe rural district, respectively (p = 0.0002). Monthly rainfall and minimum temperature exhibited strong positive associations with the number of confirmed malaria cases.Conclusion: A notable decline in malaria cases was observed over the eight-year period. Both P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist; hence, control measures should continue targeting both species. The high malaria burden in urban (Dilla town) and suburban (Dilla zuria district) settings and autumn season need spatiotemporal consideration by the elimination program.

Eight-year Retrospective Analysis of Malaria Trends in Gedeo Zone, South Ethiopia (2012-2019)

Background: Informed decision making is underlined by all level of the tiers in the health system. Poor data record system coupled with under- (over)-reporting of malaria cases affects the country’s elimination activities. Thus, malaria data at health facilities and health offices are important particularly to monitor and evaluate malaria elimination progresses. This study was intended to assess overall reported malaria cases, spatiotemporal trends and factors associated in Gedeo zone, South Ethiopia, and compare malaria case reports by the health centers and health offices.Methods: Past eight years retrospective data stored in 17 health centers and 5 district health offices in Gedeo Zone were extracted. Malaria cases data at each health center with sociodemographic information, between 2012 and 2019, were included. Meteorological data were obtained from the national meteorology agency. The data were analyzed using Stata 13.Results: A total of 485,414 clinical suspects were examined for malaria during the previous 8 years at health centers. Of these suspects, 57,228 (11.79%) were confirmed malaria cases. We noted, an overall under reporting of malaria, 3,758 clinical suspects and 467 confirmed malaria cases were not captured at the health offices level. Based on the health centers records, Plasmodium falciparum (49.74%) was slightly higher (p = 0.795) than P. vivax (47.59%). The majority of cases were found in adults (≥15 years of age) that accounted for 11.47% of confirmed malaria cases (p < 0.0001). There was high spatiotemporal variation: highest cases record was during autumn (12.55%) (p < 0.0001) and, the highest (18,150, 13.17%)) and lowest (5,187 (10.44%)) malaria cases were reported from Dilla town and Yirgacheffe rural district, respectively (p = 0.0002). Monthly rainfall and minimum temperature exhibited strong positive associations with the number of confirmed malaria cases.Conclusion: A notable decline in malaria cases was observed over the eight-year period. Both P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist; hence, control measures should continue targeting both species. The high malaria burden in urban (Dilla town) and suburban (Dilla zuria district) settings and autumn season need spatiotemporal consideration by the elimination program.