Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election

While much attention has been paid to understanding the drivers of support for Donald Trump, less focus has been placed on understanding the factors that led individuals to turn out and vote or stay home. This paper compares non-voters and voters in the 2016 election and explores how self-reported candidate preference prior to the election predicted turnout across three different state contexts: (1) all states, (2) closely contested states won by Trump, and (3) closely contested states won by Clinton. We find that preference for both candidates predicted turnout in the aggregate (all states) and in closely contested states won by Clinton, but only preference for Trump predicted turnout in the closely contested states won by Trump. Moreover, we find that political interest is negatively associated with preference for Clinton when examining candidate preferences among non-voters. Our analysis suggests that non-voters in the 2016 election held meaningful candidate preferences that impacted voter turnout but that state context played an important role in this relationship. This study sheds light on an understudied component of the 2016 election, the attitudes and behavior of non-voters, as well as points to the importance of incorporating contextual variation in future work on electoral behavior and voter turnout.

Háblame de tí: Latino mobilization, group dynamics and issue prioritization in the 2020 Election

What motivated Latinos to turnout in 2020 in the middle of a global health pandemic that has devastated their community financially, physically and mentally? How might we explain Latino support for each one of the Presidential candidates in the context of these crises? In this paper, we tackle these questions through an investigation of the factors that drove Latino turnout in 2020 and what might explain Latino favorability for Joe Biden and Donald Trump. To contextualize these findings, we compare these results to the 2016 election. We find that the most predictive factors of Latino turnout in 2020 were perceived group discrimination and mobilization efforts by campaigns and other organizations. We also find that Latino candidate preference in 2020 can be best explained by issue prioritization. Latinos for whom the economy was the most important issue were more likely to support Donald Trump. However, Latinos for whom COVID-19 and racism towards the Latino community were the top pressing political priorities were more likely to favor Joe Biden. These findings continue to shed light on the diversity and heterogeneity of the Latino vote and speak to the significance of outreach efforts by political parties, candidates and community organizations.

Voters and Foreign Policy: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment in Pakistan

How much weight do voters place on foreign policy when deciding between electoral candidates? In traditional surveys in Pakistan, the vast majority of respondents identify India as an enemy and threat to Pakistan. What these studies do not assess is whether these beliefs affect voter preferences. Using a conjoint survey experiment conducted among 1,990 respondents in Pakistan, we find that respondents punish hypothetical politicians who advocate a friendly policy toward India, but only modestly. Candidate attitudes toward India were the least meaningful characteristic for voter choice among five characteristics tested, suggesting that attitudinal measurements of salience poorly predict candidate preference. Subgroup results are also instructive: younger and more educated respondents and those from Pakistan's largest province of Punjab were less likely to punish dovish politicians. We discuss implications of these findings and outline avenues for future research.

Crystallization Effect of Television Broadcasts on Nigerian Voters During a Presidential Election

Television is popularly used to offer information to viewers during elections. There will always be citizens who register to participate in an election and then refuse to take further steps, like casting their votes. This study sought to find out if television broadcasts made citizens like these experience the crystallization effect. This effect causes uninterested citizens to make crystal clear choices on particular contestants. This study sought to find out about the crystallization effect on voters in Ado Odo/Ota communities in Ogun State of Nigeria during the 2007 Nigerian presidential election. The survey method was used to get required data from 782 respondents who were not members of any political party, had no candidate preference, and were yet to decide on who to vote for in this election. It seems plain from this study that television broadcasts sharpened these citizens' decisions to make specific choices. These undecided, indifferent, or neutral voters had their ideas crystallized or decisively formed to vote for specific candidates after exposure to television broadcasts.

The Effects of Probabilistic Forecasts and Stakes on Electoral Participation in an Exterminal Setting

This study looks at the effect of probabilistic forecasts and policy stakes on vote intention in an experimental setting. This study examined stakes and forecasts through exposing subjects to mock newspaper articles in two experiments: a fictitious mayoral election and the 2018 U.S. Senate race in Arizona. The study found that varying the policy stakes of an election had a significant impact on intention to vote, while varying the probabilistic forecasts did not have a significant effect on intention to vote. In the mayoral experiment, when the mock article said that the candidates disagreed on a major policy (high stakes treatment), subjects were significantly more likely to indicate that they would vote in that election in comparison to the article where subjects were told that the two candidates agreed on that same policy issue (low stakes treatment). In the Arizona experiment, I found that low stakes made subjects significantly less likely to say they would vote in comparison to the control treatment. Both stakes and probability had some effects on candidate favorability and candidate preference in my mayoral experiment. My results lead me to conclude that the media has the potential to influence political participation levels through the way they cover elections.

Working Conditions, Workers’ Rights, and Candidate Preference in the 2016 Democratic Primary

Working conditions and workers’ rights have long been indicators of broader societal power, yet it is unclear whether candidates who take explicit stands on such issues can expect to find electoral support among voters. This study draws on cross-sectional and panel data to examine the relationship between attitudes toward such issues and candidate preference in the 2016 Democratic primary. Although research on vote choice suggests issue attitudes are typically remote considerations, the findings indicate that Democrats who were more concerned about workers’ working conditions and the exploitation of workers were significantly more likely to prefer Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary. Moreover, findings from panel data suggest such attitudes were latent, rather than adopted, as Democrats who expressed support for stronger regulation of business in 2011 were significantly more likely to prefer Bernie Sanders five years later in 2016. The findings suggest that issue attitudes can be meaningful considerations when there are distinct options for voters, and that the unanticipated Democratic support enjoyed by Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary is at least partially attributable to his strong and explicit stands on working conditions and workers’ rights.