Modeling Age at Menstrual Onset and Developing Menarcheal Life Table

Population scientists are generally developing mathematical models/techniques in demography and to provide brief explanation of extensive data sets. The prime objective of the present paper is to propose a probability model to illustrate the distribution of female’s age at first menstrual onset. Menarcheal age distribution is used to evaluate risk associated to reproductive issues and may be used as a demographic indicator of female fecundity. The suitability of proposed model is tested with the real data sets. Parameters of the proposed distribution have been estimated through least square estimation technique. It is observed that older female’s age at menarche is somewhat higher than the younger female’s age at menarche. Also we have constructed a life table for menarcheal age using a probability model. This life table is enable to provide expected duration of getting menarche for a girl of a particular age.

TRENDS IN LIFE EXPECTANCY OF THE POPULATION OF THE SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT (2005-2016)

Introduction. Life expectancy is the most important medico-demographic indicator, closely related to the social and economic conditions of the life of the population. Material and methods. Statistical data for the work was obtained on websites of the Federal State Statistics Service and Siberian District Medical Center of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency of Russia. To analyze the changes in the life expectancy of the population in the Siberian Federal District (SFD) for 2005-2016 and the short-term prognosis, the Microsoft Office application (MS Excel) capabilities were used and several options for approximating the annual increase in life expectancy were considered using the following trends: linear, logarithmic, degree (polynomial of the third degree). Results. The analysis of the trends indicates a “fading” nature of the gain in the life expectancy. In some SFD areas in 2014-2016, there is a slowdown in the rising life expectancy or even a decline in the index. This may indicate to a certain depletion of the resource of reducing the mortality rate with the exogenous determination (primarily from injuries and poisonings). The actual dynamics of life expectancy and mortality rates in SFD and its regions were compared with the target milestones for 2018. Their levels and trends in SFD are much worse than in the country as a whole. By the index of life expectancy, the difference between SFD and the target milestones in 2016 was 4.19 years, which is almost twice as much as in the Russian Federation. The lag will not be overcome, as for the last three years, the annual gain was only 0.39 years. This is slightly larger than in the Russian Federation, but obviously not enough to achieve the target milestones. Conclusion. The data given show the problem of reducing the mortality rate and increasing life expectancy can be solved only if the value of health on the scale of both public and personal assessment changes at the wide distribution of practice of healthy lifestyles.

Lower and upper bounds of life expectancies and total expected longevity of a developing country

Regardless of being most used demographic indicator of longevity, life expectancy has few limitations too; and it arise mainly due to irregular mortality patterns in particular age group. This paper aims to analyze the trend of remaining life expectancies in different age groups and examines the highest observed life expectancies along with lower and upper bounds of life expectancies for Bangladesh; a country where early aged mortality is present remarkably. To estimate the lower and upper bounds of life expectancies in particular age; corresponding survival fractions have been taken into account, which gave more flexible concepts about longevity measures. Obtained results indicate decline in the gap between early aged life expectancies for both sexes in Bangladesh; which suggests that the full population, rather than just the more selected survivors, may anticipate a longer life that was previously only the domain of those who survived past the early years. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/seajph.v3i2.20041 South East Asian Journal of Public Health Vol.3(2) 2013: 52-57

Production Management in the Elderly Care Services

In western countries, the so-called demographic time bomb, that is, the ageing of the baby-boom generation, has become one of the most challenging issues. Although it has become almost clichéd in health care planning, its effects are being felt rather acutely in reality. The situation in Finland, as in many other western countries, is compounded by the fact that as demand for elderly care is increasing, the service systems are suffering from severe labor and tax funding shortages. In fact, population in Finland is aging faster than any other OECD country (Antolin, Oxley, & Suyker, 2001). Elderly care centers have difficulties in hiring qualified professional staff. Nursing staff are also burdened by heavy workloads. The situation will worsen by time as the number of elderly people in our population increases further, leading to increased strain on health care resources. The present service structure is not going to be able to respond to this demand. Yet health care funding, which depends on public financing, will decrease as the number of taxpayers declines due to the aging of our workforce. “Elderly dependence ratio,” a key demographic indicator, will approximately double over the next two decades (Eurostat, 2005).