Ethnic Recognition Under Minority Rule in Ethiopia

This chapter examines the adoption and effects on peace of past non-recognition and contemporary ethnic recognition under minority rule in Ethiopia. On the question of adopting ethnic federalism, it shows that the ruling Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had a keen understanding of its minority position and appreciated the assuring benefits of recognition. While the TPLF acknowledged the mobilization risks of recognition, the nature of Ethiopia’s war-to-peace transition made it such that the new minority leadership needed to recognize ethnic groups in order to win power. On the question of effects on peace, the chapter assesses the assuring effects of ethnic federalism, the authoritarian strategies that the minority-led regime used to compensate against the mobilization risks, and the mixed implications for peace. The chapter concludes by considering future prospects after the 2018 change in leadership to a plurality Oromo leader for the first time in Ethiopian history.

Non-Recognition Under Minority Rule and the Paradox of Non-Recognition in Rwanda

This chapter examines the adoption and effects on peace of non-recognition under minority Tutsi rule in Rwanda. Reviewing first a history of recognition under Hutu majority leadership, it argues that the decision not to recognize ethnic identity in post-genocide Rwanda is consistent with the book’s central theory and cross-national trends. It shows that a “dilemma of recognition” logic offers the most convincing explanation for Rwanda’s effort to “eradicate” ethnicity. On the question of effects, it finds potentially destructive contradictions between the non-recognition policy, implemented alongside de facto favoritism for members of the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front and for Tutsis specifically, and the everyday experiences of Rwandans that maintain the salience of ethnicity as a basis of mistrust. It introduces the concept of a “paradox of non-recognition,” wherein efforts to negate ethnicity may result, rather, in sustaining its salience. This paradox challenges conflict management theories proposing that non-recognition enables societies to transcend ethnic identities.

The Promise of Recognition

The key conclusion of this book is that ethnic recognition strategies can be a crucial bridge from ethnic polarization to more inclusive and peaceful societies. Whether this happens depends on the interplay of the assuring versus mobilization effects of recognition. A key structural factor that affects this interplay is whether the society is under minority or plurality ethnic rule. Cross-national and case study evidence supports this thesis. The chapter reviews implications for designing post-conflict constitutions and peace agreements. Further research should investigate longer-term effects, the mechanisms giving rise to these effects, the ways in which recognition policies work together as a system, and how the book’s theory applies to a broader set of political conflicts.

Recognition Under Plurality Rule and the Paradox of Recognition in Burundi

This chapter examines the adoption and effects on peace of non-recognition under minority Tutsi rule and then recognition under plurality Hutu rule in Burundi. It reviews pre-civil-war history up to 1993, arguing that non-recognition arose from a “dilemma of recognition,” given Tutsi leaders’ concerns over mobilization effects. It discusses how the ethnic power configuration changed via the political ascendance of the Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) during the civil war and through to the 2005 constitution. This shift toward majority ethnic rule accompanied a transition toward recognition, consistent with the book’s theory. On the question of effects, introducing quotas for Hutus and Tutsis in government, military, and other institutions reduced the political salience of ethnicity, a phenomenon the chapter calls the “paradox of recognition.” This paradox challenges conflict management theories proposing that recognition entrenches the political salience of ethnic identity.

What Are the Effects of Ethnic Recognition on Peace?

This chapter studies the effects of adopting ethnic recognition on implementation of recognition-based policies, political inclusion, and indicators for peace, focusing on conflict-affected countries between 1990 and 2012. Adopting recognition in constitutions or political settlements greatly increases the rate at which recognition-based policies are adopted in the executive, legislative, security, justice, civil service, education, and language policy domains. Recognition leads to large increases in ethnic inclusion, measured by the population share of ethnic groups whose members have access to state power structures. On average, countries that adopt recognition go on to experience less violence, more economic vitality, and more democratic politics, and countries under plurality ethnic rule drive these aggregate effects. The latter finding reaffirms the importance of ethnic power configurations in explaining not only the adoption of ethnic recognition but also its effects on peace.

Under What Conditions Is Recognition Adopted?

This chapter tests a theory that emphasizes ethnic power configurations to explain the adoption or non-adoption of ethnic recognition in conflict-affected countries from 1990 to 2012. The analysis focuses on the adoption of ethnic recognition in constitutions or comprehensive political settlements. The main finding is that minority ethnic rule strongly predicts non-adoption. When a country is under minority rule, recognition is adopted only 24 percent of the time, as compared to plurality rule, under which recognition is adopted 60 percent of the time. This relationship is robust to controlling for a large number of potential confounding factors related to both domestic and international conditions. The relationship is strongest in countries where ethnic fractionalization is low, in which case minority groups differ most in their demographic share from plurality groups. The findings support the idea that ethnic power configurations are crucial for understanding the adoption of ethnic recognition.

Trends in Ethnic Recognition

This chapter provides details on how the concept of “ethnic recognition” is defined and measured in a dataset of conflict-affected countries between 1990 and 2012. It compares and contrasts ethnic recognition to other related concepts, such as informal recognition and factional power sharing. Using the dataset, the chapter presents trends over time and across regions in the adoption of ethnic recognition in constitutions and comprehensive political settlements. It shows that ethnic recognition has been a common strategy in recent decades, with an overall adoption rate of approximately 40 percent. While rates of adoption have been relatively consistent over time, there are important regional differences in rates of recognition.

To Recognize or Not?

This introductory chapter presents the book’s driving questions, introduces the term “ethnic recognition,” explains the book’s focus on institutions in post-conflict contexts, and lays out the plan of the rest of the book. The book asks: Under what conditions do governments manage internal violent conflicts by formally recognizing different ethnic identities? Moreover, what are the implications for peace? This introduction reviews the book’s theoretical arguments in brief, motivating a focus on ethnic power configurations and especially leaders’ status as minority or non-minority group members as a key condition for both the adoption and effects of recognition. It introduces our mixed-methods approach, then reviews the key findings. Recognition is adopted about 40 percent of the time; it is much more likely when the leader is from the largest ethnic group, as opposed to an ethnic minority; and it generally promotes peace better than non-recognition under plurality leadership.

A Theory of Recognition

This chapter presents a theoretical framework for analyzing the adoption of ethnic recognition and its effects in conflict-affected contexts. It explains the book’s focus on leaders and the important decisions they face in managing ethnic divisions. It then presents possible explanations for the adoption of recognition, grouped into domestic and international explanations, and highlights what is missing from these accounts—namely, a focus on ethnic power configurations and how they influence leaders’ strategic concerns. The chapter then details the assuring effects of recognition on one hand and mobilization effects on the other, illustrating the mechanisms underlying each and the way these effects may influence the adoption or non-adoption of recognition as well as the effects of recognition on peace. The chapter also introduces the concept of “the dilemma of recognition” that arises for minority leaders and theorizes the implications for peace of recognition under different ethnic power configurations.