Findings and Conclusion

This study has produced several insights into the pitfalls of intervening in the affairs of distressed nation states as well as providing a degree of specificity regarding latent variables that exist within the real world scenarios this study is based upon. While extremely simple in design, the agent based model utilized in this study proved to mirror the complex and fluid nature of complex humanitarian operations undertaken by the international community in troubled nations. The scenario utilized was based upon a specific country backdrop, Afghanistan, and utilized some case specifics of that operation to provide a reality based fidelity. The model itself however, is general in nature and can be readily adjusted to examine variables congruent with differing circumstances.

The Simulation Presented in the ODD Protocol

The ODD Protocol has become a standard for documenting and describing agent based models. The protocol is organized around three main elements, from which the ODD acronym originates: Overview, Design concepts, and Details. This chapter is organized around these primary elements and further broken down into seven sub-elements to provide a clear purpose and understanding of the model simulation. The sub-elements are: Purpose, State Variables and Scales, Process Overview and Scheduling, Design Concepts, Initialization, Input, and Sub-models. The model presented is a proto-agent behavioral model and is utilized in an agent based modeling simulation to help identify possible emergent behavioral outcomes of the populations in the area of interest. By varying the rules governing the interactions of the multinational and incumbent government proto-agents, different strategies can be identified for increasing the effectiveness of those proto-agents and the utilization of resources.

Agent-Based Modeling

Agent based modeling is one of many tools, from the complexity sciences, available to investigate complex policy problems. Complexity science investigates the non-linear behavior of complex adaptive systems. Complex adaptive systems can be found across a broad spectrum of the natural and human created world. Examples of complex adaptive systems include various ecosystems, economic markets, immune response, and most importantly for this research, human social organization and competition / cooperation. The common thread among these types of systems is that they do not behave in a mechanistic way which has led to problems in utilizing traditional methods for studying them. Complex adaptive systems do not follow the Newtonian paradigm of systems that behave like a clock works whereby understanding the workings of each of the parts provides an understanding of the whole. By understanding the workings of the parts and a few external rules, predictions can be made about the behavior of the system as a whole under varying circumstances. Such systems are labeled deterministic (Zimmerman, Lindberg, & Plsek, 1998).

Literature Review

The broad nature of the literature reviewed to construct this model was necessary to provide the background regarding the interrelationships between the various theories of inputs and outcomes and their sometimes disjointed actual outcomes in reality. This chapter covers several aspects of actions taken by the allies after the cessation of hostilities to stabilize the society within the axis nations. It also examines the history of Afghanistan and the demography and culture. It concludes with an exploration of agent based modeling and why it is a useful tool for conducting this study. Issues ranging from military-NGO coordination to change capacity of the society as well as the legitimacy of the belligerents within the society are captured within this simulation and this literature review provides the context for the interpretation of the results of the simulations.

Introduction

This chapter provides an overview of the complex humanitarian interventions from a Western perspective by examining the scenarios that are associated with the Afghan war, and its surrounding policy dilemmas. There are many ways for the world community to respond to a troubled region. Each of these responses has its own set of consequences and none is without problems. The costs, both in monetary terms and human life, can be quite high. Often, several different approaches are taken simultaneously by different governmental and nongovernmental organizations. The question posed is whether these action are more effective if they are integrated, and what form this integration should take.