Abstract. The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record
low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September)
extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts.
Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in
terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea
ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly
Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and
annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used
datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to
extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice
area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness” of the
Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer
of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent.
Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have
driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient
to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent.
We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes
(thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area
estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification
across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products
show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including
record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our
results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North
Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong
sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016
minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice
compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a
more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, “New Arctic”, sea
ice regime.