Machine learning can identify patients at risk of hyperparathyroidism without known calcium and intact parathyroid hormone

Head & Neck ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melody L. Greer ◽  
Kyle Davis ◽  
Brendan C. Stack
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Intact Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Patients At Risk

scholarly journals Using Predictive Modeling and Supervised Machine Learning to Identify Patients at Risk for Venous Thromboembolism Following Posterior Lumbar Fusion

2021 ◽  
pp. 219256822110193
Author(s):  
Kevin Y. Wang ◽  
Ijezie Ikwuezunma ◽  
Varun Puvanesarajah ◽  
Jacob Babu ◽  
Adam Margalit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Lumbar Fusion ◽  
Posterior Lumbar Fusion ◽  
Single Level ◽  
Patients At Risk

Study Design: Retrospective review. Objective: To use predictive modeling and machine learning to identify patients at risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) following posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) for degenerative spinal pathology. Methods: Patients undergoing single-level PLF in the inpatient setting were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Our outcome measure of VTE included all patients who experienced a pulmonary embolism and/or deep venous thrombosis within 30-days of surgery. Two different methodologies were used to identify VTE risk: 1) a novel predictive model derived from multivariable logistic regression of significant risk factors, and 2) a tree-based extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm using preoperative variables. The methods were compared against legacy risk-stratification measures: ASA and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) using area-under-the-curve (AUC) statistic. Results: 13, 500 patients who underwent single-level PLF met the study criteria. Of these, 0.95% had a VTE within 30-days of surgery. The 5 clinical variables found to be significant in the multivariable predictive model were: age > 65, obesity grade II or above, coronary artery disease, functional status, and prolonged operative time. The predictive model exhibited an AUC of 0.716, which was significantly higher than the AUCs of ASA and CCI (all, P < 0.001), and comparable to that of the XGBoost algorithm ( P > 0.05). Conclusion: Predictive analytics and machine learning can be leveraged to aid in identification of patients at risk of VTE following PLF. Surgeons and perioperative teams may find these tools useful to augment clinical decision making risk stratification tool.

scholarly journals Identifying those at risk of reattendance at discharge from emergency departments using explainable machine learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. P. Chmiel ◽  
M. Azor ◽  
F. Borca ◽  
M. J. Boniface ◽  
D. K. Burns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Departments ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Care Indicator ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Single Centre Study ◽  
Patients At Risk

ABSTRACTShort-term reattendances to emergency departments are a key quality of care indicator. Identifying patients at increased risk of early reattendance can help reduce the number of patients with missed or undertreated illness or injury, and could support appropriate discharges with focused interventions. In this manuscript we present a retrospective, single-centre study where we create and evaluate a machine-learnt classifier trained to identify patients at risk of reattendance within 72 hours of discharge from an emergency department. On a patient hold-out test set, our highest performing classifier obtained an AUROC of 0.748 and an average precision of 0.250; demonstrating that machine-learning algorithms can be used to classify patients, with moderate performance, into low and high-risk groups for reattendance. In parallel to our predictive model we train an explanation model, capable of explaining predictions at an attendance level, which can be used to help inform the design of interventional strategies.

SCREENING OF PATIENTS AT RISK FOR WILD TYPE ATTR-CM USING A COMPUTATIONAL MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. S65
Author(s):  
C Willis ◽  
K Kawamoto ◽  
A Watanabe ◽  
J Biskupiak ◽  
K Nolen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Patients At Risk

scholarly journals MEWS++: Enhancing the Prediction of Clinical Deterioration in Admitted Patients through a Machine Learning Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arash Kia ◽  
Prem Timsina ◽  
Himanshu N. Joshi ◽  
Eyal Klang ◽  
Rohit R. Gupta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Clinical Deterioration ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Patients At Risk

Early detection of patients at risk for clinical deterioration is crucial for timely intervention. Traditional detection systems rely on a limited set of variables and are unable to predict the time of decline. We describe a machine learning model called MEWS++ that enables the identification of patients at risk of escalation of care or death six hours prior to the event. A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted from July 2011 to July 2017 of adult (age > 18) inpatients excluding psychiatric, parturient, and hospice patients. Three machine learning models were trained and tested: random forest (RF), linear support vector machine, and logistic regression. We compared the models’ performance to the traditional Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) using sensitivity, specificity, and Area Under the Curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR). The primary outcome was escalation of care from a floor bed to an intensive care or step-down unit, or death, within 6 h. A total of 96,645 patients with 157,984 hospital encounters and 244,343 bed movements were included. Overall rate of escalation or death was 3.4%. The RF model had the best performance with sensitivity 81.6%, specificity 75.5%, AUC-ROC of 0.85, and AUC-PR of 0.37. Compared to traditional MEWS, sensitivity increased 37%, specificity increased 11%, and AUC-ROC increased 14%. This study found that using machine learning and readily available clinical data, clinical deterioration or death can be predicted 6 h prior to the event. The model we developed can warn of patient deterioration hours before the event, thus helping make timely clinical decisions.

Development and Evaluation of a Machine Learning Model for the Early Identification of Patients at Risk for Sepsis

2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 334-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan J. Delahanty ◽  
JoAnn Alvarez ◽  
Lisa M. Flynn ◽  
Robert L. Sherwin ◽  
Spencer S. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Early Identification ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Patients At Risk

Unsupervised Machine Learning of LGE Patterns on Cardiac MRI Identifies Patients at Risk for Right Ventricular Failure After LVAD

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. S146
Author(s):  
Julia M. Simkowski ◽  
Ramsey M. Wehbe ◽  
Jack Goergen ◽  
Allen S. Anderson ◽  
Kambiz Ghafourian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Right Ventricular ◽  
Cardiac Mri ◽  
Right Ventricular Failure ◽  
Ventricular Failure ◽  
Unsupervised Machine Learning ◽  
Patients At Risk

Can Machine Learning Help Identify Patients at Risk for Recurrent Sexually Transmitted Infections?

2020 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather R. Elder ◽  
Susan Gruber ◽  
Sarah J. Willis ◽  
Noelle Cocoros ◽  
Myfanwy Callahan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Sexually Transmitted Infections ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Patients At Risk

scholarly journals Machine Learning Applied to Electronic Health Records: Identification of Chemotherapy Patients at High Risk for Preventable Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Admissions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1106-1126
Author(s):  
Dylan J. Peterson ◽  
Nicolai P. Ostberg ◽  
Douglas W. Blayney ◽  
James D. Brooks ◽  
Tina Hernandez-Boussard
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Receiver Operator Curve ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Electronic Health ◽  
Chemotherapy Patients ◽  
Operator Curve

PURPOSE Acute care use (ACU) is a major driver of oncologic costs and is penalized by a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services quality measure, OP-35. Targeted interventions reduce preventable ACU; however, identifying which patients might benefit remains challenging. Prior predictive models have made use of a limited subset of the data in the electronic health record (EHR). We aimed to predict risk of preventable ACU after starting chemotherapy using machine learning (ML) algorithms trained on comprehensive EHR data. METHODS Chemotherapy patients treated at an academic institution and affiliated community care sites between January 2013 and July 2019 who met inclusion criteria for OP-35 were identified. Preventable ACU was defined using OP-35 criteria. Structured EHR data generated before chemotherapy treatment were obtained. ML models were trained to predict risk for ACU after starting chemotherapy using 80% of the cohort. The remaining 20% were used to test model performance by the area under the receiver operator curve. RESULTS Eight thousand four hundred thirty-nine patients were included, of whom 35% had preventable ACU within 180 days of starting chemotherapy. Our primary model classified patients at risk for preventable ACU with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.783 (95% CI, 0.761 to 0.806). Performance was better for identifying admissions than emergency department visits. Key variables included prior hospitalizations, cancer stage, race, laboratory values, and a diagnosis of depression. Analyses showed limited benefit from including patient-reported outcome data and indicated inequities in outcomes and risk modeling for Black and Medicaid patients. CONCLUSION Dense EHR data can identify patients at risk for ACU using ML with promising accuracy. These models have potential to improve cancer care outcomes, patient experience, and costs by allowing for targeted, preventative interventions.

Prediction of Maternal Hemorrhage: Using Machine Learning to Identify Patients at Risk (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill M Westcott ◽  
Francine Hughes ◽  
Wenke Liu ◽  
Mark Grivainis ◽  
Iffath Hoskins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Postpartum Hemorrhage ◽  
Mode Of Delivery ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Patients At Risk

BACKGROUND Postpartum hemorrhage remains one of the largest causes of maternal morbidity and mortality in the United States. OBJECTIVE To utilize machine learning techniques to identify patients at risk for postpartum hemorrhage at obstetric delivery. METHODS Women aged 18 to 55 delivering at a major academic center from July 2013 to October 2018 were included for analysis (n = 30,867). A total of 497 variables were collected from the electronic medical record including demographic information, obstetric, medical, surgical, and family history, vital signs, laboratory results, labor medication exposures, and delivery outcomes. Postpartum hemorrhage was defined as a blood loss of ≥ 1000 mL at the time of delivery, regardless of delivery method, with 2179 positive cases observed (7.06%). Supervised learning with regression-, tree-, and kernel-based machine learning methods was used to create classification models based upon training (n = 21,606) and validation (n = 4,630) cohorts. Models were tuned using feature selection algorithms and domain knowledge. An independent test cohort (n = 4,631) determined final performance by assessing for accuracy, area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), and sensitivity for proper classification of postpartum hemorrhage. Separate models were created using all collected data versus limited to data available prior to the second stage of labor/at the time of decision to proceed with cesarean delivery. Additional models examined patients by mode of delivery. RESULTS Gradient boosted decision trees achieved the best discrimination in the overall model. The model including all data mildly outperformed the second stage model (AUC 0.979, 95% CI 0.971-0.986 vs. AUC 0.955, 95% CI 0.939-0.970). Optimal model accuracy was 98.1% with a sensitivity of 0.763 for positive prediction of postpartum hemorrhage. The second stage model achieved an accuracy of 98.0% with a sensitivity of 0.737. Other selected algorithms returned models that performed with decreased discrimination. Models stratified by mode of delivery achieved good to excellent discrimination, but lacked sensitivity necessary for clinical applicability. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning methods can be used to identify women at risk for postpartum hemorrhage who may benefit from individualized preventative measures. Models limited to data available prior to delivery perform nearly as well as those with more complete datasets, supporting their potential utility in the clinical setting. Further work is necessary to create successful models based upon mode of delivery. An unbiased approach to hemorrhage risk prediction may be superior to human risk assessment and represents an area for future research.

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