Effects of climate change and crop management on changes in rice phenology in China from 1981 to 2010

Author(s):  
Jie Chen ◽  
Yujie Liu ◽  
Weimo Zhou ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Tao Pan

2017 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. 42-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghulam Abbas ◽  
Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Ashfaq Ahmad ◽  
Wajid Nasim ◽  
Zartash Fatima ◽  
...  


2016 ◽  
Vol 154 (7) ◽  
pp. 1153-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. EBRAHIMI ◽  
A. M. MANSCHADI ◽  
R. W. NEUGSCHWANDTNER ◽  
J EITZINGER ◽  
S. THALER ◽  
...  

SUMMARYClimate change is expected to affect optimum agricultural management practices for autumn-sown wheat, especially those related to sowing date and nitrogen (N) fertilization. To assess the direction and quantity of these changes for an important production region in eastern Austria, the agricultural production systems simulator was parameterized, evaluated and subsequently used to predict yield production and grain protein content under current and future conditions. Besides a baseline climate (BL, 1981–2010), climate change scenarios for the period 2035–65 were derived from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CGMR, IPCM4 and MPEH5, with two emission scenarios, A1B and B1. Crop management scenarios included a combination of three sowing dates (20 September, 20 October, 20 November) with four N fertilizer application rates (60, 120, 160, 200 kg/ha). Each management scenario was run for 100 years of stochastically generated daily weather data. The model satisfactorily simulated productivity as well as water and N use of autumn- and spring-sown wheat crops grown under different N supply levels in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 experimental seasons. Simulated wheat yields under climate change scenarios varied substantially among the three GCMs. While wheat yields for the CGMR model increased slightly above the BL scenario, under IPCM4 projections they were reduced by 29 and 32% with low or high emissions, respectively. Wheat protein appears to increase with highest increments in the climate scenarios causing the largest reductions in grain yield (IPCM4 and MPEH-A1B). Under future climatic conditions, maximum wheat yields were predicted for early sowing (September 20) with 160 kg N/ha applied at earlier dates than the current practice.



2018 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 518-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujie Liu ◽  
Qiaomin Chen ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Junhu Dai ◽  
Ya Qin ◽  
...  


2012 ◽  
Vol 152 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. DOLTRA ◽  
M. LÆGDSMAND ◽  
J. E. OLESEN

SUMMARYThe effects of projected changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration on productivity and nitrogen (N) leaching of characteristic arable and pig farming rotations in Denmark were investigated with the FASSET simulation model. The LARS weather generator was used to provide climatic data for the baseline period (1961–90) and in combination with two regional circulation models (RCM) to generate climatic data under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario for four different 20-year time slices (denoted by midpoints 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080) for two locations in Denmark, differing in soil and climate, and representative of the selected production systems. The CO2 effects were modelled using projected CO2 concentrations for the A1B emission scenario. Crop rotations were irrigated (sandy soil) and unirrigated (sandy loam soil), and all included systems with and without catch crops, with field operation dates adapted to baseline and future climate change. Model projections showed an increase in the productivity and N leaching in the future that would be dependent on crop rotation and crop management, highlighting the importance of considering the whole rotation rather than single crops for impact assessments. Potato and sugar beet in arable farming and grain maize in pig farming contributed most to the productivity increase in the future scenarios. The highest productivity was obtained in the arable system on the sandy loam soil, with an increase of 20% on average in 2080 with respect to the baseline. Irrigation and fertilization rates would need to be increased in the future to achieve optimum yields. Growing catch crops reduces N leaching, but current catch crop management might not be sufficient to control the potential increase of leaching and more efficient strategies are required in the future. The uncertainty of climate change scenarios was assessed by using two different climate projections for predicting crop productivity and N leaching in Danish crop rotations, and this showed the consistency of the projected trends when used with the same crop model.



CATENA ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 61 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 165-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monte R. O'Neal ◽  
M.A. Nearing ◽  
Roel C. Vining ◽  
Jane Southworth ◽  
Rebecca A. Pfeifer


2013 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 55-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niklaus Lehmann ◽  
Robert Finger ◽  
Tommy Klein ◽  
Pierluigi Calanca ◽  
Achim Walter


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zerihun Yohannes Amare ◽  
Johnson O. Ayoade ◽  
Ibidun O. Adelekan ◽  
Menberu Teshome Zeleke


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siatwiinda Mabele Siatwiinda ◽  
Iwan Supit ◽  
Bert van Hove ◽  
Olusegun Yerokun ◽  
Gerard H. Ros ◽  
...  

Abstract Maize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management is currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed expected climate change and the impacts on maize yields at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Impacts were assessed for two future periods (i.e. near future: 2035–2066 and far future: 2065–2096) in comparison with a reference period (1971–2001). The average surface temperature and summer days (above 30°C) are projected to increase strongly in the southern and western regions. Precipitation is expected to decline, except in the northern regions while the number of wet days decline everywhere, indicating a shortening growing season. The risk of crop failure in western and southern regions increases due to dry spells and heat stress while crops in the northern regions will be threatened by flooding or waterlogging due to heavy precipitation. The simulated decline in the water limited and water- and nutrient- limited maize yields varied from ca 15–20% in the near future and from ca 20–40% in the far future, mainly due to the expected temperature increases. Optimizing management by adjusting planting dates and maize varieties can counteract these impacts by 6–29%. Quantitatively, the existing gaps between water limited yields and nutrient limited maize yields are substantially larger than the expected yield decline due to climate change. Improved nutrient management is therefore crucial to avoid crop yield decline and might even increase crop yields in Zambia.



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