Assessing the impact of climate change on crop management in winter wheat – a case study for Eastern Austria

2016 ◽  
Vol 154 (7) ◽  
pp. 1153-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. EBRAHIMI ◽  
A. M. MANSCHADI ◽  
R. W. NEUGSCHWANDTNER ◽  
J EITZINGER ◽  
S. THALER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Management ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Eastern Austria ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYClimate change is expected to affect optimum agricultural management practices for autumn-sown wheat, especially those related to sowing date and nitrogen (N) fertilization. To assess the direction and quantity of these changes for an important production region in eastern Austria, the agricultural production systems simulator was parameterized, evaluated and subsequently used to predict yield production and grain protein content under current and future conditions. Besides a baseline climate (BL, 1981–2010), climate change scenarios for the period 2035–65 were derived from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CGMR, IPCM4 and MPEH5, with two emission scenarios, A1B and B1. Crop management scenarios included a combination of three sowing dates (20 September, 20 October, 20 November) with four N fertilizer application rates (60, 120, 160, 200 kg/ha). Each management scenario was run for 100 years of stochastically generated daily weather data. The model satisfactorily simulated productivity as well as water and N use of autumn- and spring-sown wheat crops grown under different N supply levels in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 experimental seasons. Simulated wheat yields under climate change scenarios varied substantially among the three GCMs. While wheat yields for the CGMR model increased slightly above the BL scenario, under IPCM4 projections they were reduced by 29 and 32% with low or high emissions, respectively. Wheat protein appears to increase with highest increments in the climate scenarios causing the largest reductions in grain yield (IPCM4 and MPEH-A1B). Under future climatic conditions, maximum wheat yields were predicted for early sowing (September 20) with 160 kg N/ha applied at earlier dates than the current practice.

scholarly journals Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 493-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hirschi ◽  
S. Stoeckli ◽  
M. Dubrovsky ◽  
C. Spirig ◽  
P. Calanca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Blight ◽  
Codling Moth ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously not affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology depending on actual weather conditions and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1 % on average today to over 60 % in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g., insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

scholarly journals Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hirschi ◽  
S. Stoeckli ◽  
M. Dubrovsky ◽  
C. Spirig ◽  
P. Calanca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Blight ◽  
Codling Moth ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1% on average today to over 60% in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g. insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

scholarly journals Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

Environments ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Andrianto Ansari ◽  
Yu-Pin Lin ◽  
Huu-Sheng Lur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Calibration Coefficient ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with the human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and the CERES-Rice crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software to predict rice production for three planting seasons under four climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for the years 2021 to 2050 in the Keduang subwatershed, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The CERES-Rice model was calibrated and validated for the local rice cultivar (Ciherang) with historical data using GenCalc software. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.88) and validation (R2 = 0.87, NSE = 0.76). Our results suggest that the predicted changing rainfall patterns, rising temperature, and intensifying solar radiation under climate change can reduce the rice yield in all three growing seasons. Under RCP 8.5, the impact on rice yield in the second dry season may decrease by up to 11.77% in the 2050s. Relevant strategies associated with policies based on the results were provided for decision makers. Furthermore, to adapt the impact of climate change on rice production, a dynamic cropping calendar, modernization of irrigation systems, and integrated plant nutrient management should be developed for farming practices based on our results in the study area. Our study is not only the first assessment of the impact of climate change on the study site but also provides solutions under projected rice shortages that threaten regional food security.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Phenology and Grain Yield in Irrigated Drylands of Central Asia

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (9) ◽  
pp. 2033-2050 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. P. Devkota ◽  
A. M. Manschadi ◽  
M. Devkota ◽  
J. P. A. Lamers ◽  
E. Ruzibaev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Rice Grain ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rice Varieties ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRice is the second major food crop in central Asia. Climate change may greatly affect the rice production in the region. This study quantifies the effects of projected increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration on the phenological development and grain yield of rice using the “ORYZA2000” simulation model. The model was parameterized and validated on the basis of datasets from three field experiments with three widely cultivated rice varieties under various seeding dates in the 2008–09 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The selected rice varieties represent short-duration (SD), medium-duration (MD), and long-duration (LD) maturity types. The model was linked with historical climate data (1970–99) and temperatures and CO2 concentrations projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the B1 and A1F1 scenarios for the period 2040–69 to explore rice growth and yield formation at eight emergence dates from early May to mid-July. Simulation results with historical daily weather data reveal a close relationship between seeding date and rice grain yield. Optimal emergence dates were 25 June for SD, 5 June for MD, and 26 May for LD varieties. Under both climate change scenarios, the seeding dates could be delayed by 10 days. Increased temperature and CO2 concentration resulted in higher rice grain yields. However, seeding rice before and after the optimal seeding dates reduced crop yield and yield stability significantly because of spikelet sterility induced by both high and low temperatures. As the grain yield of SD varieties could be adversely affected by climate change, rice breeding programs for central Asia should focus on developing appropriate heat-tolerant MD and LD varieties.

scholarly journals A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 127 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 573-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Duveiller ◽  
M. Donatelli ◽  
D. Fumagalli ◽  
A. Zucchini ◽  
R. Nelson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Modelling ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Daily Weather Data

scholarly journals Integrated assessment of impact of water resources of important river basins in Eastern India under projected climate conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-606 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Eastern India ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>The impact of climate change on water resources through increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture and water supply for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system is the largest in India with a catchment area of about 110Mha, which is more than 43% of the cumulative catchment area of all the major rivers in the country. The river Damodar is an important sub catchment of GBM basin and its three tributaries- the Bokaro, the Konar and the Barakar form one important tributary of the Bhagirathi-Hughli (a tributary of Ganga) in its lower reaches. The present study is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources of the four important Eastern River Basins namely Damodar, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Ajoy, which have immense importance in industrial and agricultural scenarios in eastern India. A distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) has been used on the four river basins using HadRM2 daily weather data for the period from 2041 to 2060 to predict the impact of climate change on water resources of these river systems.&nbsp;</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

Impacts of the climate change on runoff and diffuse phosphorus load to Lake Balaton (Hungary)

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Á. Kovács ◽  
A. Clement
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Urban Runoff ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Phosphorus Concentration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Lake Balaton ◽  
Phosphorus Load ◽  
The Impact

The paper outlines a multi-component assessment of the impacts of the climate change on runoff and total phosphorus loads to the large shallow Lake Balaton in Hungary. Present hydrological cycle of the lake catchment has been examined using the rainfall-runoff model WetSpa. Particular phosphorus concentration in runoff was estimated on the basis of the simulated streamflow using an empirical power equation. Dissolved phosphorus concentrations were determined as a function of landuse and soil type of the corresponding sub-catchment. The model was calibrated and validated against daily observations manually at monitoring sites of sixteen inflowing streams around the lake. Runoff stemming from shoreline urban developments was calculated by the urban runoff simulation model SWMM. Phosphorus concentrations in urban runoff were calculated by an empirical relationship derived from field measurements. The model was henceforward run for climate change scenario analysis. Present weather data were modified by the climate change scenarios imported from the results of the CLIME project. The results indicate that the impact of the climate change on runoff and phosphorus load appears in the change of the distribution within a time period rather than in the total volume. However, due to the high uncertainties in climate models, the presented calculations are possible assumptions rather than established statements.

scholarly journals Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the first occurrence of the Light blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary 1876)

2008 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
M. Dubrovský ◽  
E. Kocmánková
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phytophthora Infestans ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Critical Number ◽  
State Institute ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Number Curve

The increase in the infestation pressure of various pathogens will be one the most important factors limiting the crop production under the future climate conditions. Weather driven NegFry model has been used for estimating future Phytophthora infestans occurrence at four experimental potato stations of the State Institute for Agriculture Supervision and Testing. Both the infestation dates of Phytophthora infestans occurrence and the shape of the critical number curve were analyzed using observed weather data as well as datasets constructed according to four climate change scenarios that were based on two global circulation models. The results show the shift of the infestation pressure to the beginning of the year and describe increasing trend of critical number reaching to detecting of the first Phyto­phtho­ra infestans occurrence for 2025 and 2050. Scenarios created according to HadCM and SRES – A2 seem to be more suitable for disease development.

scholarly journals Risk Reduction and Productivity Increase Through Integrating Arachis pintoi in Cattle Production Systems in the Colombian Orinoquía

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Johanna Enciso Valencia ◽  
Álvaro Rincón Castillo ◽  
Daniel Alejandro Ruden ◽  
Stefan Burkart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Cattle Production ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Arachis Pintoi ◽  
The Impact

In many parts of the foothills of the Orinoquía region of Colombia, cattle production takes place on poorly drained soils. The region is dominated by extensive grazing systems of Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola, a grass with high adaptation potential under temporal waterlogging conditions. Inadequate management practices and low soil fertility result in degradation, however, with important negative effects on pasture productivity and the quality and provision of (soil) ecosystem services–a situation that is likely to worsen in the near future due to climate change. Against this background, AGROSAVIA (Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria) selected Arachis pintoi CIAT 22160 cv. Centauro (Centauro) as a promising alternative for the sustainable intensification of livestock production and rehabilitation of degraded areas. This study assesses dual-purpose milk production in the foothills of the Colombian Orinoquía from an economic perspective. We compare two production systems: the Centauro–Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola association (new system) and Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola as a monoculture (traditional system). We used cashflow and risk assessment models to estimate economic indicators. The projections for economic returns consider changes in forage characteristics under regional climate change scenarios RCP (2.6, 8.5). The LIFE-SIM model was used to simulate dairy production. Results show that the inclusion of Centauro has the potential to increase animal productivity and profitability under different market scenarios. The impact of climatic variables on forage production is considerable in both climate change scenarios. Both total area and potential distribution of Centauro could change, and biomass production could decline. Brachiaira humidicola cv. Humidicola showed better persistence due to higher nitrogen levels in soil when grown in association with Centauro. The legume also provides a number of ecosystem services, such as improving soil structure and composition, and also contributes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This helps to improve the adaptation and mitigation capacity of the system.

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