scholarly journals Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP)

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tayyebeh Mesbahzadeh ◽  
Maryam Mirakbari ◽  
Mohsen Mohseni Saravi ◽  
Farshad Soleimani Sardoo ◽  
Mario M. Miglietta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Copula Theory ◽  
Drought Indicators

scholarly journals Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Mesbahzadeh ◽  
M. M. Miglietta ◽  
M. Mirakbari ◽  
F. Soleimani Sardoo ◽  
M. Abdolhoseini
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Joint Modeling ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Gaussian Copula ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Copula Theory ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Precipitation and temperature are very important climatic parameters as their changes may affect life conditions. Therefore, predicting temporal trends of precipitation and temperature is very useful for societal and urban planning. In this research, in order to study the future trends in precipitation and temperature, we have applied scenarios of the fifth assessment report of IPCC. The results suggest that both parameters will be increasing in the studied area (Iran) in future. Since there is interdependence between these two climatic parameters, the independent analysis of the two fields will generate errors in the interpretation of model simulations. Therefore, in this study, copula theory was used for joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under climate change scenarios. By the joint distribution, we can find the structure of interdependence of precipitation and temperature in current and future under climate change conditions, which can assist in the risk assessment of extreme hydrological and meteorological events. Based on the results of goodness of fit test, the Frank copula function was selected for modeling of recorded and constructed data under RCP2.6 scenario and the Gaussian copula function was used for joint modeling of the constructed data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory for the case of upper Tekeze river basin, Northern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biniyam Yisehak ◽  
Henok Shiferaw ◽  
Atkilt Girma ◽  
Zenebe Girmay ◽  
Rahwa Kidane
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Northern Ethiopia ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Copula Theory

Abstract Meteorological drought is a climate-related natural disaster. It indicates a shortage of precipitation over a long period, usually for a season or a year. This study was initiated to analyze meteorological drought using copula theory. Long-year (1982–2020) rainfall and soil moisture data were used to analyze standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSI), respectively. The best-fit copula family was selected to construct the joint probability distribution (JPD) of SPI and SSI. Multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales were analyzed using the MSDI toolbox. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) statistical test was used for trend detection. The result shows the newly developed MSDI captured all extreme drought events with the highest severity (-3.21) that occurred during the observation period compared to SPI and SSI. MSDI shows the famine caused by the drought of 1984 and 1985 remains well known to the world, with the drought duration and severity of 10 months and 18.7 years, respectively and its joint return period was 33.0 years. The result of the M-K and Sen’s Slope estimator statistical tests shows a positive trend for all drought timescales in the basin. The extreme drought captured by the MSDI most frequently occurred in the basin. This implicated that meteorological drought analysis using multiple indices is better than a single index. The results of this study will help devise drought adaptation and mitigation strategies in the basin and beyond.

scholarly journals Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minsung Kwon ◽  
Jang Hyun Sung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Climate

The standardized precipitation index (SPI)—a meteorological drought index—uses various reference precipitation periods. Generally, drought projections using future climate change scenarios compare reference SPIs between baseline and future climates. Here, future drought was projected based on reference precipitation under the baseline climate to quantitatively compare changes in the frequency and severity of future drought. High-resolution climate change scenarios were produced using HadGEM2-AO General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios for Korean weather stations. Baseline and future 3-month cumulative precipitation data were fitted to gamma distribution; results showed that precipitation of future climate is more than the precipitation of the baseline climate. When future precipitation was set as that of the baseline climate instead of the future climate, results indicated that drought intensity and frequency will decrease because the non-exceedance probability for the same precipitation is larger in the baseline climate than in future climate. However, due to increases in regional precipitation variability over time, some regions with opposite trends were also identified. Therefore, it is necessary to understand baseline and future climates in a region to better design resilience strategies and mechanisms that can help cope with future drought.

Modelling impacts of different climate change scenarios on soil water regime of a Mollisol

2005 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csilla Farkas ◽  
Roger Randriamampianina ◽  
Juraj Majerčak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Water Regime ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soil Water Regime
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