Predictions of future meteorological drought hazard (~ 2070) under the representative concentration path (RCP) 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya, Northern Ethiopia

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 475-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eskinder Gidey ◽  
Oagile Dikinya ◽  
Reuben Sebego ◽  
Eagilwe Segosebe ◽  
Amanuel Zenebe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern Ethiopia ◽  
Drought Hazard

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Spatio‐temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate in semi‐arid region of northern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Biniyam Yisehak ◽  
Henok Shiferaw ◽  
Haftu Abrha ◽  
Amdom Gebremedhin ◽  
Haftom Hagos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Northern Ethiopia ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Below-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought. This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. The climate change was analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in R software packages. The meteorological drought was assessed using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Results The result of climate change projections showed that the average annual minimum temperature will be increased by about 0.8–2.9 °C. The mean annual maximum temperature will be also increased by 0.9–3.75 °C. The rainfall projection generally showed an increasing trend, it exhibited an average annual increase of 3.5–13.4 % over the study area. The projected drought events reached its maximum severity indicated extreme drought in the years 2043, 2044, 2073, and 2074. The RDI value shows drought will occurred after 1–6 and 2–7 years under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios respectively over the study area. Almost more than 72 % of the current and future spatial coverage of drought in the study area will be affected by extreme drought, 22.3 % severely and 5.57 % also moderate drought. Conclusions Therefore, the study helps to provide useful information for policy decision makers to implement different adaptation and mitigation measures of drought in the region.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Semi-Arid Region of Northern Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biniyam Yisehak ◽  
Henok Shiferaw ◽  
Haftu Abrha ◽  
Amdom Gebremedhin ◽  
Haftom Hagos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Northern Ethiopia ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract Background: Below-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought. This paper investigates the characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. The meteorological drought was assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). The climate change was also analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in R software packages. Results: The result of climate change projections showed that the average annual minimum temperature will be increased by about 0.8-2.9°C. The mean annual maximum temperature will be also increased by 0.9-3.75 °C. The rainfall projection generally showed an increasing trend, it exhibited an average annual increase of 3.5-13.4 % over the study area. The drought projection showed that there would be extreme drought events in study area for the future (2018-2099). The SPI result indicates that drought will be occurred in the study area after 1-5 and 1-6 years under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios respectively and the RDI value also shows drought will occurred after 1-6 and 2-7 years under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios respectively over the study area. Almost more than 72% of the current and future spatial coverage of drought in the study area will be affected by extreme drought, 22.3% severely and 5.57% also moderate drought.Conclusions: Therefore, the study helps to provide useful information for policy decision makers to implement different adaptation and mitigation measures of drought in the region.

scholarly journals Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP)

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tayyebeh Mesbahzadeh ◽  
Maryam Mirakbari ◽  
Mohsen Mohseni Saravi ◽  
Farshad Soleimani Sardoo ◽  
Mario M. Miglietta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Copula Theory ◽  
Drought Indicators

scholarly journals Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minsung Kwon ◽  
Jang Hyun Sung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Climate

The standardized precipitation index (SPI)—a meteorological drought index—uses various reference precipitation periods. Generally, drought projections using future climate change scenarios compare reference SPIs between baseline and future climates. Here, future drought was projected based on reference precipitation under the baseline climate to quantitatively compare changes in the frequency and severity of future drought. High-resolution climate change scenarios were produced using HadGEM2-AO General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios for Korean weather stations. Baseline and future 3-month cumulative precipitation data were fitted to gamma distribution; results showed that precipitation of future climate is more than the precipitation of the baseline climate. When future precipitation was set as that of the baseline climate instead of the future climate, results indicated that drought intensity and frequency will decrease because the non-exceedance probability for the same precipitation is larger in the baseline climate than in future climate. However, due to increases in regional precipitation variability over time, some regions with opposite trends were also identified. Therefore, it is necessary to understand baseline and future climates in a region to better design resilience strategies and mechanisms that can help cope with future drought.

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