Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Contribute to Sudden Vegetation Dieback in a Coastal Salt Marsh

Climate extremes are becoming more frequent with global climate change and have the potential to cause major ecological regime shifts. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, a coastal wetland in Texas suffered sudden vegetation dieback following an extreme precipitation and flooding event associated with Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Historical salt marsh dieback events have been linked to climate extremes, such as extreme drought. However, to our knowledge, this is the first example of extreme precipitation and flooding leading to mass mortality of the salt marsh foundation species, Spartina alterniflora. Here, we investigated the relationships between baseline climate conditions, extreme climate conditions, and large-scale plant mortality to provide an indicator of ecosystem vulnerability to extreme precipitation events. We identified plant zonal boundaries along an elevation gradient with plant species tolerant of hypersaline conditions, including succulents and graminoids, at higher elevations, and flood-tolerant species, including S. alterniflora, at lower elevations. We quantified a flooding threshold for wetland collapse under baseline conditions characterized by incremental increases in flooding (i.e., sea level rise). We proposed that the sudden widespread dieback of S. alterniflora following Hurricane Harvey was the result of extreme precipitation and flooding that exceeded this threshold for S. alterniflora survival. Indeed, S. alterniflora dieback occurred at elevations above the wetland collapse threshold, illustrating a heightened vulnerability to flooding that could not be predicted from baseline climate conditions. Moreover, the spatial pattern of vegetation dieback indicated that underlying stressors may have also increased susceptibility to dieback in some S. alterniflora marshes.Collectively, our results highlight a new mechanism of sudden vegetation dieback in S. alterniflora marshes that is triggered by extreme precipitation and flooding. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the importance of considering interactions between multiple abiotic and biotic stressors that can lead to shifts in tolerance thresholds and incorporating climate extremes into climate vulnerability assessments to accurately characterize future climate threats.

Perubahan Baseline Negara Kepulauan Akibat Perubahan Iklim dalam Hukum Internasional

Climate change is a natural phenomenon that occur through a complicated and an evolutionary process. The impact of such natural phenomena is expected to shift the state's baseline following the geographical condition, consequently, it will also change the maritime zone owned by the state. The Law of the Sea has not regulated such impacts of the shifting baselines caused by natural phenomena which indicates a legal vacuum on this matter. This legal research examines the regulations and its implications which can be the basis of an archipelagic state’s shifting baselines coverage due to natural phenomena. States have the discretion to establish their coordinates point and geographical maps, moreover, based on the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982), States are required to make official map deposits to the United Nations Secretary-General. The deposited baseline is permanent as long as the state does not make any updates.Keywords: Baseline; Climate Change; Archipelagic States; Law of The Sea.AbstrakPermukaan air laut yang meningkat menjadi salah satu akibat dari perubahan iklim. Fenomena meningkatnya permukaan air laut merupakan peristiwa alami yang terjadi secara evolusi sehingga proses terjadinya memerlukan jangka waktu yang lama. Dampak dari fenomena alam tersebut dapat mengakibatkan terjadinya pergeseran baseline negara mengikuti kondisi geografis yang terdampak sehingga terjadi perubahan wilayah negara atas laut. Hukum Laut belum mengatur mengenai kemungkinan terjadinya pergeseran baseline akibat fenomena alam ini sehingga merupakan suatu kekosongan hukum yang dapat menjadi potensi sengketa antar negara. Penelitian ini mengkaji atas dampak dan pengaturan yang dapat menjadi landasan apabila terjadi perubahan baseline negara terutama negara kepulauan seperti Indonesia yang sangat rentan akibat fenomena alam. Setiap Negara memiliki diskresi untuk menetapkan koordinat serta peta geografisnya mengingat kondisi wilayah yang berbeda-beda, dan berdasarkan Konvensi Hukum Laut 1982 (UNCLOS 1982), negara wajib melakukan deposit peta resmi ke Sekretaris Jenderal PBB. Baseline yang telah didepositkan merupakan baseline yang tetap selama negara tidak melakukan pembaharuan.Kata Kunci: Baseline; Perubahan Iklim; Negara Kepulauan; Hukum Laut.

Here be dragons: important spatial uncertainty driven by climate data in forecasted distribution of an endangered insular reptile

The effect of future climate change is poorly documented in the tropics, especially in mountainous areas. Yet, species living in these environments are predicted to be strongly affected. Newly available high-resolution environmental data and statistical methods enable the development of forecasting models. Nevertheless, the uncertainty related to climate models can be strong, which can lead to ineffective conservation actions. Predicted studies aimed at providing conservation guidelines often account for a range of future climate predictions (climate scenarios and global circulation models). However, very few studies considered potential differences related to baseline climate data and/or did not account for spatial information (overlap) in uncertainty assessments. We modelled the environmental suitability for Phelsuma borbonica, an endangered reptile native to Reunion Island. Using two metrics of species range change (difference in overall suitability and spatial overlap), we quantified the uncertainty related to the modelling technique (n = 10), sample bias correction, climate change scenario, global circulation models (GCM) and baseline climate (CHELSA versus Worldclim). Uncertainty was mainly driven by GCMs when considering overall suitability, while for spatial overlap the uncertainty related to baseline climate became more important than that of GCMs. The uncertainty driven by sample bias correction and variable selection was much higher when assessed based on spatial overlap. The modelling technique was a strong driver of uncertainty in both cases. We eventually provide a consensus ensemble prediction map of the environmental suitability of P. borbonica to identify the areas predicted to be the most suitable in the future with the highest certainty. Predictive studies aimed at identifying priority areas for conservation in the face of climate change need to account for a wide panel of modelling techniques, GCMs and baseline climate data. We recommend the use of multiple approaches, including spatial overlap, when assessing uncertainty in species distribution models.

Extending Limited In Situ Mountain Weather Observations to the Baseline Climate: A True Verification Case Study

The availability of in situ atmospheric observations decreases with elevation and topographic complexity. Data sets based on numerical atmospheric modeling, such as reanalysis data sets, represent an alternative source of information, but they often suffer from inaccuracies, e.g., due to insufficient spatial resolution. sDoG (statistical Downscaling for Glacierized mountain environments) is a reanalysis data postprocessing tool designed to extend short-term weather station data from high mountain sites to the baseline climate. In this study, sDoG is applied to ERA-Interim predictors to produce a retrospective forecast of daily air temperature at the Vernagtbach climate monitoring site (2640 MSL) in the Central European Alps. First, sDoG is trained and cross-validated using observations from 2002 to 2012 (cross-validation period). Then, the sDoG retrospective forecast and its cross-validation-based uncertainty estimates are evaluated for the period 1979–2001 (hereafter referred to as the true evaluation period). We demonstrate the ability of sDoG to model air temperature in the true evaluation period for different temporal scales: day-to-day variations, year-to-year and season-to-season variations, and the 23-year mean seasonal cycle. sDoG adds significant value over a selection of reference data sets available for the site at different spatial resolutions, including state-of-the-art global and regional reanalysis data sets, output by a regional climate model, and an observation-based gridded product. However, we identify limitations of sDoG in modeling summer air temperature variations particularly evident in the first part of the true evaluation period. This is most probably related to changes of the microclimate around the Vernagtbach climate monitoring site that violate the stationarity assumption underlying sDoG. When comparing the performance of the considered reference data sets, we cannot demonstrate added value of the higher resolution data sets over the data sets with lower spatial resolution. For example, the global reanalyses ERA5 (31 km resolution) and ERA-Interim (80 km resolution) both clearly outperform the higher resolution data sets ERA5-Land (9 km resolution), UERRA HARMONIE (11 km resolution), and UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX (5.5 km resolution). Performance differences among ERA5 and ERA-Interim, by contrast, are comparably small. Our study highlights the importance of station-scale uncertainty assessments of atmospheric numerical model output and downscaling products for high mountain areas both for data users and model developers.

Temperature-related biodiversity change across temperate marine and terrestrial systems

Climate change is reshaping global biodiversity as species respond to changing temperatures. However, the net effects of climate-driven species redistribution on local assemblage diversity remain unknown. Here, we relate trends in species richness and abundance from 21,500 terrestrial and marine assemblage time series across temperate regions (23.5-60.0°) to changes in air or sea surface temperature. We find a strong coupling between biodiversity and temperature changes in the marine realm, which is conditional on the baseline climate. We detect increases in species richness with increasing temperature that is twice as pronounced in warmer locations, while abundance declines with warming in the warmest marine locations. In contrast, we did not detect systematic temperature-related richness or abundance trends on land, despite a greater magnitude of warming. We also found no evidence for an interaction between biodiversity change and latitude, further emphasizing the importance of baseline climate in structuring assemblages. As the world is committed to further warming, significant challenges remain in maintaining local biodiversity amongst the non-uniform inflow and outflow of “climate migrants” across distinct regions, especially in the ocean.

Earth's Outgassing and Climatic Transitions: The Slow Burn Towards Environmental “Catastrophes”?

On multimillion-year timescales, outgassing from the Earth's interior provides the principal source of CO2 to the ocean–atmosphere system, which plays a fundamental role in shaping the Earth's baseline climate. Fluctuations in global outgassing have been linked to icehouse–greenhouse transitions, although uncertainties surround paleo-outgassing fluxes. Here, we discuss how volcanic outgassing and the carbon cycle have evolved in concert with changes in plate tectonics and biotic evolution. We describe hypotheses of driving mechanisms for the Paleozoic icehouse–greenhouse climates and explore how climatic transitions may have influenced past biotic crises and, in particular, how variable outgassing rates established the backdrop for carbon cycle perturbations to instigate prominent mass extinction events.

A Spatial and Temporal Risk Assessment of the Impacts of El Niño on the Tropical Forest Carbon Cycle: Theoretical Framework, Scenarios, and Implications

Strong El Niño events alter tropical climates and may lead to a negative carbon balance in tropical forests and consequently a disruption to the global carbon cycle. The complexity of tropical forests and the lack of data from these regions hamper the assessment of the spatial distribution of El Niño impacts on these ecosystems. Typically, maps of climate anomaly are used to detect areas of greater risk, ignoring baseline climate conditions and forest cover. Here, we integrated climate anomalies from the 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 El Niño events with baseline climate and forest edge extent, using a risk assessment approach to hypothetically assess the spatial and temporal distributions of El Niño risk over tropical forests under several risk scenarios. The drivers of risk varied temporally and spatially. Overall, the relative risk of El Niño has been increasing driven mainly by intensified forest fragmentation that has led to a greater chance of fire ignition and increased mean annual air temperatures. We identified areas of repeated high risk, where conservation efforts and fire control measures should be focused to avoid future forest degradation and negative impacts on the carbon cycle.

Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

This paper provides an overview of bioclimatic models applied to lichen species, supporting their potential use in this context as indicators of climate change risk. First, it provides a brief summary of climate change risk, pointing to the relevance of lichens as a topic area. Second, it reviews the past use of lichen bioclimatic models, applied for a range of purposes with respect to baseline climate, and the application of data sources, statistical methods, model extents and resolution and choice of predictor variables. Third, it explores additional challenges to the use of lichen bioclimatic models, including: 1. The assumption of climatically controlled lichen distributions, 2. The projection to climate change scenarios, and 3. The issue of nonanalogue climates and model transferability. Fourth, the paper provides a reminder that bioclimatic models estimate change in the extent or range of a species suitable climate space, and that an outcome will be determined by vulnerability responses, including potential for migration, adaptation, and acclimation, within the context of landscape habitat quality. The degree of exposure to climate change, estimated using bioclimatic models, can help to inform an understanding of whether vulnerability responses are sufficient for species resilience. Fifth, the paper draws conclusions based on its overview, highlighting the relevance of bioclimatic models to conservation, support received from observational data, and pointing the way towards mechanistic approaches that align with field-scale climate change experiments.

Assessment of Flood Extremes Using Downscaled CMIP5 High-Resolution Ensemble Projections of Near-Term Climate for the Upper Thu Bon Catchment in Vietnam

Exploring potential floods is both essential and critical to making informed decisions for adaptation options at a river basin scale. The present study investigates changes in flood extremes in the future using downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5) high-resolution ensemble projections of near-term climate for the Upper Thu Bon catchment in Vietnam. Model bias correction techniques are utilized to improve the daily rainfall simulated by the multi-model climate experiments. The corrected rainfall is then used to drive a calibrated supper-tank model for runoff simulations. The flood extremes are analyzed based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution and simulation of design hydrograph methods. Results show that the former method indicates almost no changes in the flood extremes in the future compared to the baseline climate. However, the later method explores increases (approximately 20%) in the peaks of very extreme events in the future climate, especially, the flood peak of a 50-year return period tends to exceed the flood peak of a 100-year return period of the baseline climate. Meanwhile, the peaks of shorter return period floods (e.g., 10-year) are projected with a very slight change. Model physical parameterization schemes and spatial resolution seem to cause larger uncertainties; while different model runs show less sensitivity to the future projections.

Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections

The standardized precipitation index (SPI)—a meteorological drought index—uses various reference precipitation periods. Generally, drought projections using future climate change scenarios compare reference SPIs between baseline and future climates. Here, future drought was projected based on reference precipitation under the baseline climate to quantitatively compare changes in the frequency and severity of future drought. High-resolution climate change scenarios were produced using HadGEM2-AO General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios for Korean weather stations. Baseline and future 3-month cumulative precipitation data were fitted to gamma distribution; results showed that precipitation of future climate is more than the precipitation of the baseline climate. When future precipitation was set as that of the baseline climate instead of the future climate, results indicated that drought intensity and frequency will decrease because the non-exceedance probability for the same precipitation is larger in the baseline climate than in future climate. However, due to increases in regional precipitation variability over time, some regions with opposite trends were also identified. Therefore, it is necessary to understand baseline and future climates in a region to better design resilience strategies and mechanisms that can help cope with future drought.