Fusion-based framework for meteorological drought modeling using remotely sensed datasets under climate change scenarios: Resilience, vulnerability, and frequency analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 297 ◽  
pp. 113283
Author(s):  
Mahmood Fooladi ◽  
Mohammad H. Golmohammadi ◽  
Hamid R. Safavi ◽  
Vijay P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Drought Modeling

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Two Ways to Quantify Korean Drought Frequency: Partial Duration Series and Bivariate Exponential Distribution, and Application to Climate Change

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeongeun Won ◽  
Jeonghyeon Choi ◽  
Okjeong Lee ◽  
Moo Jong Park ◽  
Sangdan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Bivariate Exponential Distribution ◽  
Partial Duration Series ◽  
Bivariate Exponential

Studies using drought index to examine return levels of drought can be classified into two approaches: univariate frequency analysis using annual series extracted from drought index time series and multivariate frequency analysis that simultaneously reflects various characteristics of drought. In the case of drought analysis, it is important to properly consider the duration, so, in this study, univariate frequency analysis is performed using the partial duration series. In addition, a bivariate frequency analysis is performed using a relatively simple bivariate exponential distribution to give a more realistic return level to major drought events in the past while reflecting the correlation between drought severities and durations. The drought severity–duration–frequency curves using each of the two frequency analyses are derived, and these curves are used to examine how the drought phenomenon currently in progress is evolving. From this, the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches, as well as the points to be aware of in application, are discussed. Finally, using the two approaches to the proposed drought frequency analysis, the behavior of Korea’s future extreme droughts is investigated under the conditions of various future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Future Extreme Drought in South Korea Using Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Yoo ◽  
Chung ◽  
Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Bivariate Frequency Analysis

Recently, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events. In South Korea, extreme droughts are frequent and cause serious damage. To identify the risk of extreme drought, we need to calculate the hydrologic risk using probabilistic analysis methods. In particular, future hydrologic risk of extreme drought should be compared to that of the control period. Therefore, this study quantitatively assessed the future hydrologic risk of extreme drought in South Korea according to climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. A threshold level method was applied to observation-based rainfall data and climate change scenario-based future rainfall data to identify drought events and extract drought characteristics. A bivariate frequency analysis was then performed to estimate the return period considering both duration and severity. The estimated return periods were used to calculate and compare hydrologic risks between the control period and the future. Results indicate that the average duration of drought events for the future was similar with that for the control period, however, the average severity increased in most future scenarios. In addition, there was decreased risk of maximum drought events in the Yeongsan River basin in the future, while there was increased risk in the Nakdong River basin. The median of risk of extreme drought in the future was calculated to be larger than that of the maximum drought in the control period.

scholarly journals Leaf Area Index Variation for Crop, Pasture, and Tree in Response to Climatic Variation in the Goulburn–Broken Catchment, Australia

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1592-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zelalem K. Tesemma ◽  
Yongping Wei ◽  
Andrew W. Western ◽  
Murray C. Peel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Leaf Area Index ◽  
Leaf Area ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Area Index ◽  
The Future

Abstract Previous studies have reported relationships between mean annual climatic variables and mean annual leaf area index (LAI), but the seasonal and spatial variability of this relationship for different vegetation cover types in different climate zones have rarely been explored in Australia. The authors developed simple models using remotely sensed LAI data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and gridded climatic data from the Australian Water Availability Project. They were able to relate seasonal and annual LAI of three different land cover types (tree, pasture, and crop) with climatic variables for the period 2000–09 in the Goulburn–Broken catchment, Australia. Strong relationships were obtained between annual LAI of crop, pasture, and tree with annual precipitation (R2 = 0.70, 0.65, and 0.82, respectively). Monthly LAI of each land cover type also showed a strong relationship (R2 = 0.92, 0.95, and 0.95) with the difference between precipitation P and reference crop evapotranspiration (PET; P − PET) for crop, pasture, and tree. Independent model calibration and validation showed good agreement with remotely sensed MODIS LAI. The results from the application of the developed model on the future impact of climate change suggest that under all climate scenarios crop, pasture, and tree showed consistent decreases in mean annual LAI. For the future climate change scenarios considered, crop showed a decline of 7%–38%, pasture showed a decline of 5%–24%, and tree showed a decline of 2%–11% from the historical mean annual. These results can be used to assess the impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on water resources by coupling them with hydrological models.

scholarly journals Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP)

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tayyebeh Mesbahzadeh ◽  
Maryam Mirakbari ◽  
Mohsen Mohseni Saravi ◽  
Farshad Soleimani Sardoo ◽  
Mario M. Miglietta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Copula Theory ◽  
Drought Indicators

scholarly journals Evaluation of Future Flood Risk According to RCP Scenarios Using a Regional Flood Frequency Analysis for Ungauged Watersheds

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam Won Kim ◽  
Jin-Young Lee ◽  
Dong-Hyeok Park ◽  
Tae-Woong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ungauged Watersheds

According to the accepted climate change scenarios, the future rainfall in the Korean peninsula is expected to increase by 3–10%. The expected increase in rainfall leads to an increase of runoff that is directly linked to the stability of existing and newly installed hydraulic structures. It is necessary to accurately estimate the future frequency and severity of floods, considering increasing rainfall according to different climate change scenarios. After collecting observed flood data over twenty years in 12 watersheds, we developed a regional frequency analysis (RFA) for ungauged watersheds by adjusting flood quantiles calculated by a design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) using natural flow data as an index flood. The proposed RFA was applied to estimate design floods and flood risks in 113 medium-sized basins in South Korea according to representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Regarding the future of the Korean peninsula, compared with the present, the flood risks were expected to increase by 24.85% and 20.28% on average for the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios, respectively.

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