Prediction intervals for penalized longitudinal models with multisource summary measures: An application to childhood malnutrition

Background: Diagnosing Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in its earliest stages is important for therapeutic and support planning. Similarly, being able to predict who will convert from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD would have clinical implications. Objectives: The goals of this study were to identify features from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database associated with the conversion from MCI to AD, and to characterize the temporal evolution of that conversion. Methods: We screened the publically available ADNI longitudinal database for subjects with MCI who have developed AD (cases: n=305), and subjects with MCI who have remained stable (controls: n=250). Analyses included 1,827 features from laboratory assays (n=12), quantitative MRI scans (n=1,423), PET studies (n=136), medical histories (n=72), and neuropsychological tests (n=184). Statistical longitudinal models identified features with significant differences in longitudinal behavior between cases and matched controls. A multiple-comparison adjusted log-rank test identified the capacity of the significant predictive features to predict early conversion. Results: 411 features (22.5%) were found to be statistically different between cases and controls at the time of AD diagnosis; 385 features were statistically different at least 6 months prior to diagnosis, and 28 features distinguished early from late conversion, 20 of which were obtained from neuropsychological tests. In addition, 69 features (3.7%) had statistically significant changes prior to AD diagnosis. Conclusion: Our results characterized features associated with disease progression from MCI to AD, and, in addition, the log-rank test identified features which are associated with the risk of early conversion.

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Shorter prediction intervals for anonymous individual assessments in group decision-making via pairwise comparisons

Top ◽

10.1007/s11750-021-00597-y ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mausumi Bose ◽

Rahul Mukerjee

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Group Decision Making ◽

Group Decision ◽

Prediction Intervals ◽

Pairwise Comparisons

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Fuzzy Prediction Intervals Using Credibility Distributions

Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.3390/engproc2021005051 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 51

Author(s):

Enriqueta Vercher ◽

Abel Rubio ◽

José D. Bermúdez

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Computational Cost ◽

Expected Value ◽

Prediction Intervals ◽

Series Data ◽

Comparative Results ◽

Automatic Forecasting

We present a new forecasting scheme based on the credibility distribution of fuzzy events. This approach allows us to build prediction intervals using the first differences of the time series data. Additionally, the credibility expected value enables us to estimate the k-step-ahead pointwise forecasts. We analyze the coverage of the prediction intervals and the accuracy of pointwise forecasts using different credibility approaches based on the upper differences. The comparative results were obtained working with yearly time series from the M4 Competition. The performance and computational cost of our proposal, compared with automatic forecasting procedures, are presented.

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Operating Reserve Quantification Using Prediction Intervals of Wind Power: An Integrated Probabilistic Forecasting and Decision Methodology

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ◽

10.1109/tpwrs.2021.3053847 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-1

Author(s):

Changfei Zhao ◽

Can Wan ◽

Yonghua Song

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Prediction Intervals ◽

Probabilistic Forecasting

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Childhood Malnutrition and the Association with Diarrhea, Water supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene Practices in Kersa and Omo Nada Districts of Jimma Zone, Ethiopia

Environmental Health Insights ◽

10.1177/1178630221999635 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 ◽

pp. 117863022199963

Author(s):

Negasa Eshete Soboksa ◽

Sirak Robele Gari ◽

Abebe Beyene Hailu ◽

Bezatu Mengistie Alemu

Keyword(s):

Nutritional Status ◽

Water Supply ◽

Open Pit ◽

Breastfeeding Initiation ◽

Childhood Malnutrition ◽

Hygiene Practices ◽

Sanitation And Hygiene ◽

Jimma Zone ◽

Nutritional Status Of Children ◽

Critical Times

Background: Inadequate water supply, sanitation, hygiene practices, and diarrhea are related to malnutrition, but there is limited evidence in Ethiopia about their association. Thus, the objective of this study was to describe childhood malnutrition and the association with diarrhea, water supply, sanitation and hygiene practices. Methods: A case-control study design was performed from December 2018 to January 2019 in Kersa and Omo Nada districts of the Jimma Zone, Ethiopia. Both children aged 6 to 59 months were chosen randomly from malnourished and well-nourished children in 128 cases and 256 controls, respectively. Bodyweight, length/height, mid-upper arm circumference, and presence of edema of the children were measured according to the WHO references. Then, the nutritional status of the children was identified as a case or control using the cutoff points recommended by the WHO. To see the association-dependent and independent variables, logistic regression analysis was used. Results: A total of 378 children were included in this study (98.44%). Malnutrition was significantly increased among children who delayed breastfeeding initiation(AOR = 3.12; 95% CI: 1.62-6.00), had diarrhea (AOR = 9.22; 95% CI: 5.25-16.20), were living in households indexed as the poorest (AOR = 2.50; 95% CI: 1.12-5.62), defecated in a pit latrine without slab/open pit (AOR = 2.49; 95% CI: 1.17-5.30), collecting drinking water from less than/equal to 1 km distance (AOR = 4.77; 95% CI: 1.01-22.71) and sometimes practiced hand washing at the critical times (AOR = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.16-5.74) compared with their counterparts. However, lactating during the survey (AOR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.18-0.67), water collection from unprotected sources (AOR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.05-0.95) and collection and disposal of under-5 children feces elsewhere (AOR = 0.06; 95% CI: 0.01-0.49) significantly reduced the likelihood of malnutrition. Conclusions: Early initiation of exclusive breastfeeding, diarrhea prevention, and the use of improved latrine and handwashing practices at critical times could be important variables to improve the nutritional status of children.

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Joint Longitudinal Models for Dealing With Missing at Random Data in Trial-Based Economic Evaluations

Value in Health ◽

10.1016/j.jval.2020.11.018 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andrea Gabrio ◽

Rachael Hunter ◽

Alexina J. Mason ◽

Gianluca Baio

Keyword(s):

Missing At Random ◽

Economic Evaluations ◽

Longitudinal Models ◽

Random Data

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Childhood Malnutrition: Time for Action

Children ◽

10.3390/children8020103 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 103

Author(s):

Tonia Vassilakou

Keyword(s):

Burden Of Disease ◽

Personal Development ◽

Overweight And Obesity ◽

Poor Health ◽

Human Potential ◽

Micronutrient Deficiencies ◽

Middle Income ◽

Childhood Malnutrition ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Major Impediment

Childhood malnutrition of every form, including undernutrition (wasting, stunting and underweight), micronutrient deficiencies, as well as overweight and obesity, consists a triple burden of disease, especially for low- and middle-income countries, and is one of the leading causes of poor health and a major impediment to personal development and achievement of full human potential worldwide [...]

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