The article discusses the concept of political scenarios that can be applied to identify the prospects for the development of European parliamentary monarchies. A detailed typology of political scenarios is proposed, as well as their influence on both European parliamentary monarchies and the European political process is established. The proposed classification considers political scenarios that may arise in parliamentary and non-parliamentary monarchies, as well as in republics, including scenarios for the development and preservation of a parliamentary monarchy, or its weakening, abolition or transition to a different kind of monarchy, as well as scenarios of a potential transition to a parliamentary monarchy, restoration or proclamation. All the described political scenarios are included in the groups of main or reserve scenarios, depending on the political probability of their occurrence. The proposed political scenarios are illustrated with historical and contemporary examples founded on the research of political systems and political institutions of European states. The developed classification of political scenarios reflects the versatility and multi-vector of the variants of the evolution of the parliamentary monarchy in modern time, and covers all potential paths of transformation, which makes it possible to use this classification in political research aimed at studying European parliamentary monarchies, as well as political forecasting of the state of this form of government in the foreseeable the future.
Wyzwania dla transformacji demokratycznej w Republice Białoruś. Wstępne wnioski z 2020 r.