The Development of a Station Coordinate Estimation Program to Model Time Series from Continuous GPS Stations in New Zealand

Author(s):  
C. Pearson ◽  
C. Crook ◽  
P. Denys
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 136-144
Author(s):  
P.K. Gautam ◽  
S. Rajesh ◽  
N. Kumar ◽  
C.P. Dabral

Abstract We investigate the surface deformation pattern of GPS station at MPGO Ghuttu (GHUT) to find out the cause of anomalous behavior in the continuous GPS time series. Seven years (2007-2013) of GPS data has been analyzed using GAMIT/GLOBK software and generated the daily position time series. The horizontal translational motion at GHUT is 43.7 ± 1 mm/yr at an angle of 41°± 3° towards NE, while for the IGS station at LHAZ, the motion is 49.4 ±1 mm/yr at 18 ± 2.5° towards NEE. The estimated velocity at GHUT station with respect to IISC is 12 ± 1 mm/yr towards SW. Besides, we have also examined anomalous changes in the time series of GHUT before, after and during the occurrences of local earthquakes by considering the empirical strain radius; such that, a possible relationship between the strain radius and the occurrences of earthquakes have been explored. We considered seven local earthquakes on the basis of Dobrovolsky strain radius condition having magnitude from 4.5 to 5.7, which occurred from 2007 to 2011. Results show irrespective of the station strain radius, pre-seismic surface deformational anomalies are observed roughly 70 to 80 days before the occurrence of a Moderate or higher magnitude events. This has been observed for the cases of those events originated from the Uttarakashi and the Chamoli seismic zones in the Garhwal and Kumaun Himalaya. Occurrences of short (< 100 days) and long (two years) inter-seismic events in the Garhwal region plausibly regulating and diffusing the regional strain accumulation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-28
Author(s):  
Agus Sulaiman ◽  
Asep Juarna

Beberapa penyebab terjadinya pengangguran di Indonesia ialah, tingkat urbanisasi, tingkat industrialisasi, proporsi angkatan kerja SLTA dan upah minimum provinsi. Faktor-faktor tersebut turut serta mempengaruhi persentase data terkait tingkat pengangguran menjadi sedikit fluktuatif. Berdasarkan pergerakan persentase data tersebut, diperlukan sebuah prediksi untuk mengetahui persentase tingkat pengangguran di masa depan dengan menggunakan konsep peramalan. Pada penelitian ini, peneliti melakukan analisis peramalan time series menggunakan metode Box-Jenkins dengan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dan metode Exponential Smoothing dengan model Holt-Winters. Pada penelitian ini, peramalan dilakukan dengan menggunakan dataset tingkat pengangguran dari tahun 2005 hingga 2019 per 6 bulan antara Februari hingga Agustus. Peneliti akan melihat evaluasi Range Mean Square Error (RMSE) dan Mean Square Error (MSE) terkecil dari setiap model time series. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, ARIMA(0,1,12) menjadi model yang terbaik untuk metode Box-Jenkins sedangkan Holt-Winters dengan alpha(mean) = 0.3 dan beta(trend) = 0.4 menjadi yang terbaik pada metode Exponential Smoothing. Pemilihan model terbaik dilanjutkan dengan perbandingan nilai akurasi RMSE dan MSE. Pada model ARIMA(0,1,12) nilai RMSE = 1.01 dan MSE = 1.0201, sedangkan model Holt-Winters menghasilkan nilai RMSE = 0.45 dan MSE = 0.2025. Berdasarkan data tersebut terpilih model Holt-Winters sebagai model terbaik untuk peramalan data tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Masson ◽  
Stephane Mazzotti ◽  
Philippe Vernant

Abstract. We use statistical analyses of synthetic position time series to estimate the potential precision of GPS velocities. The synthetic series represent the standard range of noise, seasonal, and position offset characteristics, leaving aside extreme values. This analysis is combined with a new simple method for automatic offset detection that allows an automatic treatment of the massive dataset. Colored noise and the presence of offsets are the primary contributor to velocity variability. However, regression tree analyses show that the main factors controlling the velocity precision are first the duration of the series, followed by the presence of offsets and the noise (dispersion and spectral index). Our analysis allows us to propose guidelines, which can be applied to actual GPS data, that constrain the velocity accuracies (expressed as 95 % confidence limits) based on simple parameters: (1) Series durations over 8.0 years result in high velocity accuracies in the horizontal (0.2 mm yr−1) and vertical (0.5 mm yr−1); (2) Series durations of less than 4.5 years cannot be used for high-precision studies since the horizontal accuracy is insufficient (over 1.0 mm yr−1); (3) Series of intermediate durations (4.5–8.0 years) are associated with an intermediate horizontal accuracy (0.6 mm yr-1) and a poor vertical one (1.3 mm yr−1), unless they comprise no offset. Our results suggest that very long series durations (over 15–20 years) do not ensure a better accuracy compare to series of 8–10 years, due to the noise amplitude following a power-law dependency on the frequency. Thus, better characterizations of long-period GPS noise and pluri-annual environmental loads are critical to further improve GPS velocity precisions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 675-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Moghtased-Azar ◽  
A. Mirzaei ◽  
H. R. Nankali ◽  
F. Tavakoli

Abstract. Lake Urmia, a salt lake in the north-west of Iran, plays a valuable role in the environment, wildlife and economy of Iran and the region, but now faces great challenges for survival. The Lake is in immediate and great danger and is rapidly going to become barren desert. As a result, the increasing demands upon groundwater resources due to expanding metropolitan and agricultural areas are a serious challenge in the surrounding regions of Lake Urmia. The continuous GPS measurements around the lake illustrate significant subsidence rate between 2005 and 2009. The objective of this study was to detect and specify the non-linear correlation of land subsidence and temperature activities in the region from 2005 to 2009. For this purpose, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) was carried out between the two types of time series, namely vertical components of GPS measurements and daily temperature time series. The significant common patterns are illustrated in the high period bands from 180–218 days band (~6–7 months) from September 2007 to February 2009. Consequently, the satellite altimetry data confirmed that the maximum rate of linear trend of water variation in the lake from 2005 to 2009, is associated with time interval from September 2007 to February 2009. This event was detected by XWT as a critical interval to be holding the strong correlation between the land subsidence phenomena and surface temperature. Eventually the analysis can be used for modeling and prediction purposes and probably stave off the damage from subsidence phenomena.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Dingtao Hu ◽  
Xiaoqi Lou ◽  
Nana Meng ◽  
Qiaomei Xie ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The outcomes of smoking have generated considerable clinical interest in recent years. Although people from different countries are more interested to the topic of quit smoking during the winter, few studies have tested this hypothesis. The current study aimed to quantify public interest in quit smoking via Google.Methods: We use Google Trends to obtain the Internet search query volume for terms relating to quit smoking for major northern and southern hemisphere countries in this research. Normally search volumes for the term “quit smoking + stop smoking + smoking cessation” were retrieved within the USA, the UK, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand and Australia from January 2004 to December 2018. Seasonal effects were investigated using cosinor analysis and seasonal decomposition of time series models.Results: Significant seasonal variation patterns in those search terms were revealed by cosinor analysis and demonstrated by the evidence from Google Trends analysis in the representative countries including the USA (pcos = 2.36×10-7), the UK (pcos < 2.00×10-16), Canada (pcos < 2.00×10-16), Ireland (pcos <2.00×10-16) ,Australia (pcos = 5.13×10-6) and New Zealand (pcos = 4.87×10-7). Time series plots emphasized the consistency of seasonal trends with peaks in winter / late autumn by repeating in nearly all years. The overall trend of search volumes, observed by dynamic series analysis, declined from 2004 to 2018.Conclusions: The preliminary evidence from Google Trends search tool showed a significant seasonal variation and decreasing trend for the RSV of quit smoking. Our novel findings in smoking cessation epidemiology need to be verified with further studies, and the mechanisms underlying these findings must be clarified.


JOUTICA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 356
Author(s):  
Ruli Utami ◽  
Mohammad Whildan Indra Maulana

Sektor pariwisata merupakan sektor dengan prospek tinggi untuk meningkatkan pendapatan negara melalui penerimaan Devisa. Selain itu adanya wisatawan ini juga sangat berdampak pada ekonomi kecil warga sekitar tempat wisata, sehingga sektor ini harus dikelolah dengan bijaksanan. Daya tarik wisata Indonesia sangat menarik minat dari wisatawan mancanegara untuk berkunjung ke Indoensia, hal ini harus sebanding dengan pelayanan publik yang disediakan untuk wisatawan ini; misalnya sarana dan fasilitas hotel serta layanan lain seperti imigrasi. Hal ini dapat dilakukan jika pihak yang berwenang dapat memprediksi jumlah kunjungan wisatawan masing-masing negara. Dari permasalahan tersebut diatas, maka dibuatlah sebuah aplikasi yang bertujuan untuk menampilakn visualisasi prediksi yang dihitung menggunakan pemodelan menggunakan time series modeling dengan visualisasi hasil prediksi melalui sebuah aplikasi. Dari penelitian yang telah dilakukan dengan metode exponential smoothing dapat disimpulkan bahwa nilai parameter yang paling cocok digunakan adalah nilai α = 0.6 dengan nilai MAPE 6.77%.


Author(s):  
Jinyi Shao ◽  
Mallika Kelkar

Self-employment in New Zealand has been trending up in the past two years, following subdued growth between 2000 and 2010. Self-employed people made up 11.3% of total employed in the year to March 2012 (251,800 workers), compared with 10.1% in the year to March 2010. Self-employment is defined in this paper as those people operating their own business without employees. The paper explores time series trends in self-employment, in particular across three post-recession periods. Characteristics of self-employed workers are also identified. This paper also investigates movements in and out of self-employment in order to understand the recent growth in this type of employment. The analysis uses longitudinal Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data. The HLFS provides official measures of a range of labour market indicators, including the number of people employed, unemployed and not in the labour force.


Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 385 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cuesta-Frau ◽  
Juan Pablo Murillo-Escobar ◽  
Diana Alexandra Orrego ◽  
Edilson Delgado-Trejos

Permutation Entropy (PE) is a time series complexity measure commonly used in a variety of contexts, with medicine being the prime example. In its general form, it requires three input parameters for its calculation: time series length N, embedded dimension m, and embedded delay τ . Inappropriate choices of these parameters may potentially lead to incorrect interpretations. However, there are no specific guidelines for an optimal selection of N, m, or τ , only general recommendations such as N > > m ! , τ = 1 , or m = 3 , … , 7 . This paper deals specifically with the study of the practical implications of N > > m ! , since long time series are often not available, or non-stationary, and other preliminary results suggest that low N values do not necessarily invalidate PE usefulness. Our study analyses the PE variation as a function of the series length N and embedded dimension m in the context of a diverse experimental set, both synthetic (random, spikes, or logistic model time series) and real–world (climatology, seismic, financial, or biomedical time series), and the classification performance achieved with varying N and m. The results seem to indicate that shorter lengths than those suggested by N > > m ! are sufficient for a stable PE calculation, and even very short time series can be robustly classified based on PE measurements before the stability point is reached. This may be due to the fact that there are forbidden patterns in chaotic time series, not all the patterns are equally informative, and differences among classes are already apparent at very short lengths.


Buildings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Linlin Zhao ◽  
Jasper Mbachu ◽  
Zhansheng Liu ◽  
Huirong Zhang

An accurate cost estimate not only plays a key role in project feasibility studies but also in achieving a final successful outcome. Conventionally, estimating cost typically relies on the experience of professionals and cost data from previous projects. However, this process is complex and time-consuming, and it is challenging to ensure the accuracy of the estimates. In this study, the bivariate and multivariate transfer function models were adopted to estimate and forecast the building costs of two types of residential buildings in New Zealand: Low-rise buildings and high-rise buildings. The transfer function method takes advantage of the merits of univariate time series analysis and the power of explanatory variables. In the dynamic project conduction environment, simply including building cost data in the cost forecasting models is not valid for making predictions, because the change in demand must be considered. Thus, the time series of house prices and work volume were used to explain exogenous effects in the transfer function model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of transfer function models, this study compared the results generated by the transfer function models with autoregressive integrated moving average models. According to the forecasting performance of the models, the proposed approach achieved better results than autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed method can provide accurate cost estimates that can help stakeholders in project budget planning and management strategy making at the early stage of a project.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document